scholarly journals The effects of physical distancing and lockdown to restrain SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian Municipality of Cogne

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gianpiero Gervino ◽  
Fabio Truc
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Infection ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
Igg Antibodies ◽  
Longitudinal Changes ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The People ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Italian Territory ◽  
Blood Screening

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 started in Wuhan, China, and is now a pandemic. An understanding of the prevalence and contagiousness of the disease, and of whether the strategies used to contain it to date have been successful, is important for understanding future containment strategies. One strategy for controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is to adopt strong social distancing policies. The Municipality of Cogne (I), adopted strict lockdown rules from March 4, 2020 up to May 18, 2020. This first wave of the pandemic impressed by the extremely low impact of the SARS-CoV-2 on the locals, compared to the number accused on all the Italian territory. Starting from October 2020 up to the end of December, when the second wave hit Italy and Cogne territory, heavier effects were observed. In order to cast light on the effectiveness of the adopted strategy 74,5% of the local population underwent to a blood screening to detect IgM and IgG antibodies and after six months all the people tested positive were again investigated to establish the longitudinal changes in antibodies level. Moreover, within the context of this survey a rare and interesting case of secondary infection has been identified and here presented.

Together in the Same Boat: Exiled Nationalist State and Chinese Civil War Exiles in 1950s Taiwan

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Dominic Meng-Hsuan Yang
Keyword(s):  
Oral History ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Chinese Communist Party ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Lower Class ◽  
Population Movement ◽  
Popular Belief ◽  
Mainland Chinese ◽  
The People ◽  
Main Factors

Abstract When the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) came to power, one million mainland Chinese were forcibly displaced to Taiwan with Chiang Kai-shek's regime. Today, this event is still largely considered as a relocation of government or a military withdrawal operation instead of a massive population movement. Contrary to popular belief, many of the displaced mainlanders were not Nationalist elites. Most were common soldiers, petty civil servants, and war refugees from different walks of life. Based on newspapers, magazines, surveys, declassified official documents produced in 1950s Taiwan and contemporary oral history, this article uncovers the complicated relationship between the regime in exile and the people in exile. It argues that the interdependency between the two, in particular between the migrant state and the socially atomized lower class migrants, was formed gradually over a decade due to two main factors: wartime displacement and the need to face an unfriendly local population together.

scholarly journals A versatile web app for identifying the drivers of COVID-19 epidemics

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne M. Getz ◽  
Richard Salter ◽  
Ludovica Luisa Vissat ◽  
Nir Horvitz
Keyword(s):  
Model Fitting ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Stochastic Simulations ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Policies And Measures ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Credible Intervals ◽  
Web App ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background No versatile web app exists that allows epidemiologists and managers around the world to comprehensively analyze the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation. The http://covid-webapp.numerusinc.com/ web app presented here fills this gap. Methods Our web app uses a model that explicitly identifies susceptible, contact, latent, asymptomatic, symptomatic and recovered classes of individuals, and a parallel set of response classes, subject to lower pathogen-contact rates. The user inputs a CSV file of incidence and, if of interest, mortality rate data. A default set of parameters is available that can be overwritten through input or online entry, and a user-selected subset of these can be fitted to the model using maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE). Model fitting and forecasting intervals are specifiable and changes to parameters allow counterfactual and forecasting scenarios. Confidence or credible intervals can be generated using stochastic simulations, based on MLE values, or on an inputted CSV file containing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates of one or more parameters. Results We illustrate the use of our web app in extracting social distancing, social relaxation, surveillance or virulence switching functions (i.e., time varying drivers) from the incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19 epidemics in Israel, South Africa, and England. The Israeli outbreak exhibits four distinct phases: initial outbreak, social distancing, social relaxation, and a second wave mitigation phase. An MCMC projection of this latter phase suggests the Israeli epidemic will continue to produce into late November an average of around 1500 new case per day, unless the population practices social-relaxation measures at least 5-fold below the level in August, which itself is 4-fold below the level at the start of July. Our analysis of the relatively late South African outbreak that became the world’s fifth largest COVID-19 epidemic in July revealed that the decline through late July and early August was characterised by a social distancing driver operating at more than twice the per-capita applicable-disease-class (pc-adc) rate of the social relaxation driver. Our analysis of the relatively early English outbreak, identified a more than 2-fold improvement in surveillance over the course of the epidemic. It also identified a pc-adc social distancing rate in early August that, though nearly four times the pc-adc social relaxation rate, appeared to barely contain a second wave that would break out if social distancing was further relaxed. Conclusion Our web app provides policy makers and health officers who have no epidemiological modelling or computer coding expertise with an invaluable tool for assessing the impacts of different outbreak mitigation policies and measures. This includes an ability to generate an epidemic-suppression or curve-flattening index that measures the intensity with which behavioural responses suppress or flatten the epidemic curve in the region under consideration.

scholarly journals Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia’s second wave

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Quentin Grafton ◽  
John Parslow ◽  
Tom Kompas ◽  
Kathryn Glass ◽  
Emily Banks
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Detection Strategies

Abstract Background We investigated the public health and economy outcomes of different levels of social distancing to control a ‘second wave’ outbreak in Australia and identify implications for public health management of COVID-19. Methods Individual-based and compartment models were used to simulate the effects of different social distancing and detection strategies on Australian COVID-19 infections and the economy from March to July 2020. These models were used to evaluate the effects of different social distancing levels and the early relaxation of suppression measures, in terms of public health and economy outcomes. Results The models, fitted to observations up to July 2020, yielded projections consistent with subsequent cases and showed that better public health outcomes and lower economy costs occur when social distancing measures are more stringent, implemented earlier and implemented for a sufficiently long duration. Early relaxation of suppression results in worse public health outcomes and higher economy costs. Conclusions Better public health outcomes (reduced COVID-19 fatalities) are positively associated with lower economy costs and higher levels of social distancing; achieving zero community transmission lowers both public health and economy costs compared to allowing community transmission to continue; and early relaxation of social distancing increases both public health and economy costs.

The Environmental Impact on Human Wellbeing: A Case Study on Residences in Quarry Area

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Marinie Ahmad Zawawi ◽  
◽  
Wan Hasmirah Wan Ibrahim ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Health Conditions ◽  
Human Wellbeing ◽  
The People ◽  
New Development

An Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is compulsory in all types of new development. EIA is important to ensure that biological diversity is maintained and that development will not have any affect on the people and other species in that area. The aim of this study is to investigate the environmental impact on human wellbeing in the vicinity of quarrying. It will increase the awareness of the local population of the important factors that might affect the quality of their lives. A set of questionnaires was distributed to the community at Bandar Saujana Putra and Taman Kajang Perdana, in Selangor. A total of 60 residents were involved in the study. The results reveal that the community was concerned about health conditions and safety. However, there is still a lack of strategies to mitigate the problem. This study provides suggestions for mitigation that could be considered by the residents to reduce the effect of poor air quality caused by incorrect control and monitoring of activities in the area. It is anticipated that this study could assist both residents and authorities in improving the quality of the air as well as the residents’ quality of life.

scholarly journals A Journey through and beyond the COVID-19 Pandemic in Indian Setup-Lessons Learnt So Far

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Divyesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Health Security ◽  
The Past ◽  
Lessons Learnt ◽  
The People ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Day By Day

World over life was going at its normal pace when an outbreak occurred in Hubei province of China in the later part of the year 2019. This outbreak was soon found to be caused by a virus named coronavirus (COVID-19). Rapidly the virus spread globally leading to a pandemic. The mortality rate was increasing day by day and helplessly everyone was wondering what actually could be done to prevent the spread. Lessons from the past epidemic made it possible to think that maintaining social distancing and adequate hygiene might help to combat the ailment. In India, majorly affected were the people from poor strata and the businessmen who were earning their daily bread by selling things of daily need. The health sector too witnessed an alarming ratio of patients suffering from COVID-19. The second wave, which soon followd the first wave, caused much more havoc. Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic, exposed and challanged the health security system of every country. As the danger of pandemic still prevails, steps to curtail the spread of disease and future management strategies should be formulated from the lessons learnt through the COVID-19 phase.

scholarly journals Bayesian small-area modelling of COVID-19 cases and deaths in England and association with key risk factors: a combined space–time Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benn Sartorius ◽  
Andrew Lawson ◽  
Rachel L. Pullan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background: COVID-19 caseloads in England appear have passed through a first peak, with evidence of an emerging second wave. To ensure continued response to the epidemic is most effective, it is imperative to better understand both retrospectively and prospectively the geographical evolution of COVID-19 caseloads and deaths, identify localised areas in space-time at significantly higher risk, quantify the impact of changes in localised population mobility (or movement) on caseloads, identify localised risk factors for increased mortality and project the likely course of the epidemic at small-area resolution in coming weeks.Methods: We applied a Bayesian space–time SEIR model to assess the spatiotemporal variability of COVID-19 caseloads (transmission) and deaths at small-area scale in England (Middle Layer Super Output Area [MSOA], 6791 units) and by week (using observed data from week 5 to 34), including key determinants, the modelled transmission dynamics and spatial-temporal random effects. We also estimate the number of cases and deaths at small-area resolution with uncertainty projected forward in time by MSOA (up to week 51 of 2020), the impact mobility reductions (and subsequent easing) have had on COVID-19 caseloads and quantify the impact of key socio-demographic risk factors on COVID-19 related mortality risk by MSOA.Results: Reductions in population mobility due the course of the first lockdown had a significant impact on the reduction of COVID-19 caseloads across England, however local authorities have had a varied rate of reduction in population movement which our model suggest has substantially impacted the geographic heterogeneity in caseloads at small-area scale. The steady gain in population mobility, observed from late April, appears to have contributed to a slowdown in caseload reductions towards late June and subsequent steady increase signalling the start of the second wave. MSOA with higher proportions of elderly (70+ years of age) and elderly living in deprivation, both with very distinct geographic distributions, have a significantly elevated COVID-19 mortality rates.Conclusions: While non-pharmaceutical interventions (that is, reductions in population mobility and social distancing) had a profound impact on the trajectory of the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in England, increased population mobility appears to have contributed to the current increase signalling the start of the second wave. A number of contiguous small-areas appear to be at a significant elevated risk of high COVID-19 transmission, many of which are also at increased risk for higher mortality rates. A geographically staggered re-introduction of intensified social distancing measures is advised and limited cross MSOA movement if the magnitude and geographic extent of the second wave is to be reduced.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 infections in Italian schools: preliminary findings after one month of school opening during the second wave of the pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danilo Buonsenso ◽  
Cristina De Rose ◽  
Rossana Moroni ◽  
Piero Valentini
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
Open Access ◽  
Continuous Monitoring ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
School Settings ◽  
Preliminary Information ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Italian Territory

ABSTRACTIntroductionThe impact of school opening on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is still unknown. This study aims to provide preliminary information about the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases among students attending Italian schools.MethodsData are extracted and analysed from an open access, online dataset that monitor, on a daily basis, media news about SARS-CoV-2 infections of students attending Italian schoolsResultsAs of 5 October 2020, a total of 1350 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections have been registered in the Italian territory schools (involving 1059 students, 145 teachers and 146 other school members), for a total of 1212 out of 65104 (1.8%) Italian schools involved. National schools reported only 1 case of SARS-CoV-2 infection in more than 90% of cases, and only in one high school a cluster of more than 10 cases have been described (P 0.015). The detection of one or more SARS-CoV-2 infections leaded to the closure of 192 (14.2%) entire schools, more frequently nursery/kindergartens (P<0.0005).DiscussionOur preliminary data support low transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within schools, at least among younger students. However, entire schools are frequently closed in the fear of larger outbreaks. Continuous monitoring of school settings, hopefully through daily updated open access datasets, are needed to better understand the impact of schools on the pandemic, and provide guidelines that better consider different risks within different age groups.

scholarly journals Dynamics of seroconversion of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in the Czech unvaccinated population: nationwide prospective seroconversion (PROSECO) study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Piler ◽  
Vojtěch Thon ◽  
Lenka Andrýsková ◽  
Kamil Doležel ◽  
David Kostka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Igg Antibodies ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Government Data ◽  
Low Incidence ◽  
Study Participants ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractBackgroundAlthough the Czech Republic weathered the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic with relatively low incidence, the second wave of the global pandemic saw it rank among countries bearing the greatest COVID-19 burden, both in Europe and on a worldwide scale. The aim of the nationwide prospective seroconversion (PROSECO) study was to investigate the dynamics of seroconversion of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in the Czech population.MethodsAll clients of the second largest health insurance company in the Czech Republic were sent a written invitation to participate in this longitudinal study. The study includes the first 30,054 persons who provided a blood sample between October 2020 and March 2021. Seroprevalence was compared between calendar periods of blood sample collection, RT-PCR test results, sociodemographic factors, and other characteristics.FindingsThe data show a dramatic increase in seropositivity over time, from 28% in October/November 2020 to 43% in December 2020/January 2021 to 51% in February/March 2021. These trends were consistent with government data on cumulative viral antigenic prevalence in the population captured by PCR testing – although the seroprevalence rates established in this study were considerably higher than those listed in government data. Data pooled across the entire study period exhibited minor differences in seropositivity between sexes, age groups and body mass index categories; results were similar between test providing laboratories. Seropositivity was substantially higher among symptomatic vs. asymptomatic persons (76% vs. 34%). At least one third of all seropositive participants were asymptomatic, and 28% participants who developed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 never underwent PCR testing.InterpretationAntibody response provides a better marker of past SARS-CoV-2 infection than PCR testing data. Our data on seroconversion confirm the rapidly increasing prevalence in the Czech population during the dramatically rising pandemic wave prior to the beginning of massive vaccination. The planned second and third assessment of the study participants (April 2021 – September 2021, October 2021 – March 2022) will provide valuable evidence on the seroprevalence changes following vaccination and persistence of antibodies resulting from natural infection and vaccination.Research in contextEvidence before this studySimilarly to most European countries, the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in the Czech Republic produced a relatively low incidence (86.9 confirmed cases per 100,000 persons over three months). At the peaks of the second wave, however, over 100 confirmed cases per 100,000 persons were diagnosed daily and the Czech Republic ranked among the countries with the greatest burden of COVID-19 in Europe and in the world. Only a few nationwide population-based studies have been published covering the second wave of the epidemic in Europe, and none of them from the Central and Eastern European region.Added value of this studyThe PROSECO study will provide key data from the heavily affected Central European region and contribute to the epidemiological and serological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 infection. All 30,054 study participants were recruited between October 2020 and March 2021, thus covering all three epidemic peaks (November 2020, January and March 2021) of the second COVID-19 epidemic wave. This allows us to follow the dynamics of seroconversion of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in the immunologically naive and unvaccinated population during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study participants will be re-assessed in the second (April 2021 – September 2021) and third (October 2021 – March 2022) PROSECO phases to further study the post-infection/post-vaccination dynamics of seroconversion in/after a period of massive vaccination.Implications of all the available evidenceData from the first phase of the PROSECO study indicate that the percentage of the population that has been exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 may be substantially higher than estimates based on official data on cumulative viral positivity incidence as at least one third of seropositive participants were asymptomatic, and 28% of participants who developed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 never underwent PCR testing. Regional seroprevalence data provide key information to inform, in combination with other surveillance data, public health policies and will be instrumental for the successful management of the subsequent phases of the global pandemic.The number of seropositive participants who never underwent RT-PCR testing demonstrates the importance of serological population-based studies describing the spread and exposure to the virus in the population over time.

scholarly journals A Report on Mushrooms Poisonings in 2018 at the Apulian Regional Poison Center

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (E) ◽  
pp. 616-622
Author(s):  
Leonardo Pennisi ◽  
Anna Lepore ◽  
Roberto Gagliano-Candela ◽  
Luigi Santacroce ◽  
Ioannis Alexandros Charitos
Keyword(s):  
American Sign Language ◽  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Mushroom Poisoning ◽  
Poison Center ◽  
Ambulatory Activity ◽  
Telephone Consultation ◽  
South Italy ◽  
The People ◽  
Multiple Species ◽  
Italian Territory

BACKGROUND: The “Ospedali Riuniti’s Poison Center” (Foggia, Italy) provides a 24 h telephone consultation in clinical toxicology to the general public and health-care professionals, including drug information and assessment of the effects of commercial and industrial chemical substances, toxins but also plants and mushrooms. It participates in diagnosis and treatment of the exposure to toxins and toxicants, also throughout its ambulatory activity. METHODS: To report data on the epidemiology of mushroom poisoning in people contacting our Poison Center we made computerized queries and descriptive analyses of the medical records database of the mushroom poisoning in the poison center of Foggia from January 2018 to December 2018. RESULTS: A total of 69 mushroom poisonings cases were recorded in our poison center the period from January 2018 to December 2018. Our poison center serves all the Italian territory but most of the calls about mushrooms poisonings, in 2018, came from Apulia, Campania, and Basilicata, which are bordering regions of Italy. About 80.2 % of calls were made by the physicians (particularly, 73.9% by emergency room, 18.8% and 4.3% by hospital ward, and 1.4% both by a general practitioner and by the American Sign Language [“ASL”]) and 18.8% by the public. Cooked mushrooms were involved in all the cases (single and multiple species). The most frequent calls were made in the period between September 2018 and December 2018; in the other months, there were only sporadic cases. All were intentional exposures in adults (>18 years). CONCLUSIONS: Mushroom exposures and poisonings are an important problem in those regions of Italy where many people adventuring in mushroom’s research without any license. This fact has contributed substantially to morbidity due to mushroom poisoning. Our database is a valuable national resource for the collection and monitoring of Italian mushroom poisoning cases in 2018 but limited to the people who called our poison center, which is one of the nine poisons centers in Italy. And since in most cases, the mushroom’s species remains unknown, it is important to quickly recognize symptoms and most frequent species involved on the Italian territory, in particular in South Italy.

The Method of Forecasting the Population of Chinese Population Attractive Cities

2013 ◽  
Vol 295-298 ◽  
pp. 2654-2659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu Hao Jiao
Keyword(s):  
Chinese Population ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Floating Population ◽  
Leslie Matrix ◽  
The People ◽  
Population Forecasting ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The City ◽  
Male To Female

This paper presents a method of forecasting the population of Chinese population attractive cities. In this model the overall population is divided into two main parts, floating population(the people who will live in the city for a long time but do not have household register) and local population. The increment of floating population is positively correlated with the increment of local GDP approximately. Leslie matrix is used to imitate the process of the local population growth. Four main factors, death rate, birth rate, the ratio of male to female, and the growth of the local economy are considered to forecast the local population and floating population separately. The method in this paper overcome these shortcomings of the former method that they cannot explain the inner changes of the population, and ignore the factor of migration. So this method will offer a basis for the science of population forecasting.

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