Russia will ignore fear of China for tactical success

Significance With many Western leaders staying away from the event as a result of Russia's annexation of Crimea and increasing support for separatist forces in Ukraine's Donbas, the visit of Xi added extra significance. The military parade proved to be the largest ever, with 16,000 troops participating including a Chinese unit. During Xi's visit, Russia and China signed a number of major multi-billion dollar agreements ranging from finance through to infrastructure. Impacts Russia-Chinese bilateral trade is likely to reach 100 billion dollars in 2015. Russian infrastructure projects that have been affected by 10% spending cuts will receive a boost from China. Russia will need to balance strong ties with China with its warm relations with other Asia Pacific partners such as Vietnam.

Subject Russia's Armata tank programme. Significance Russia's military is currently undergoing a 700 billion dollar rearmament programme, with Moscow aiming to supply the military with 70% modern equipment by 2020. The reform plan is looking to upgrade Russia's armoured formations with a new family of vehicles collectively called Armata. The Armata tank variant will be far superior to any tank operating in Russia's neighbours as well as many NATO armies. However, it is costly and the Defence Ministry is actively trying to force down the price. Impacts Defence spending has been largely protected from 10% spending cuts but budgetary pressures will remain. It will take time to bring defence and procurement spending in many NATO members up from current low levels below 2% of GDP. The Ukraine crisis will force Russia's defence industry to produce weaponry domestically with less reliance on foreign supplies.


Subject Political outlook for Angola. Significance President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, in power since 1979, recently announced that he would relinquish the presidency in 2018. While Dos Santos is believed to favour a transition to one of his own children or to Vice-President Manuel Vicente, neither option will find favour in the ranks of the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) or the wider public. Impacts The military will be immune from major spending cuts given its critical role in ensuring the longevity of the regime. Rising repayment burdens on Chinese loans (estimated to total 25 billion dollars) will further undermine budgetary resources. As social protests rise, the government will respond by clamping down on critics and tightening rules governing civil society groups.


Subject Mexico's construction sector. Significance Statistics from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) suggest Mexico's construction sector faces mixed fortunes. While housing development is increasing after some difficult years, non-residential construction is faring less well, with firms preferring to improve existing facilities rather than investing in new developments. Spending cuts also raise questions over the future of public infrastructure projects. Impacts Housing developers may struggle to absorb the market share left by bankrupt former competitors. A new government after the 2018 general election could change housing subsidy policies. Lack of growth for the sector as a whole will exacerbate low-skilled unemployment.


Subject Prospects for an IMF programme. Significance Strong citizen demand for state involvement in the economy and widespread distrust of the IMF has undermined the willingness of President Edgar Lungu’s government to enter into a 1.2 billion-dollar bailout package. A meeting with the Fund in October concluded with the president saying that he needed more time to consult with domestic civil society groups and stakeholders about a proposed programme, which was likely to entail significant budget cuts. The subsequent November budget committed the government to increasing spending by 21% to 6.6 billion dollars. Impacts Heavy spending cuts are likely to prompt street protests -- especially if they trigger job losses. Negotiations with the IMF are likely to be strained and protracted, delaying economic recovery. Dropping costly capital infrastructure projects -- likely under any funding deal -- could see the PF’s popularity fall.


Subject Deteriorating relations between Pakistan and Iran. Significance Pakistan and Iran have historically been collaborators rather than rivals, but crosscutting alliances with other countries and tensions at their mutual border have strained relations. Divergent interests in Afghanistan are now pulling them further apart. Impacts In the light of a new trilateral relationship, China will increasingly mediate in Pakistan-Afghanistan disputes. Infrastructure projects relating to the Gwadar and Chabahar ports may come under attack from Baloch insurgents. Bilateral trade between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will increase.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 (6) ◽  
pp. 3-12
Author(s):  
Zhang DONGYANG ◽  

The status and prospects of development of trade and economic relations between Ukraine and China are considered. It is proved that bilateral cooperation in the trade and economic sphere has made significant progress. In 2012–2017, China was the second largest trading partner of Ukraine after Russia. However, the problem of imbalance in imports and exports between Ukraine and China has not yet been resolved. In addition, the scale and number of projects in which Ukraine attracts Chinese investment is much less than investments from European countries and the United States. It is justified that trade and economic cooperation between Ukraine and China is at a new historical stage. On the one hand, Ukraine signed the Association Agreement with the European Union, and on January 1, 2016, the rules of the free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU entered into force. This helps to accelerate the integration of Ukrainian economy into European one. On the other hand, the global economic downturn requires the introduction of innovations in the model of cooperation. The Chinese initiative “One belt is one way” is one of the variants of the innovation model of cooperation. Its significance is to unite the Asia-Pacific region with the EU in order to join the Eurasian Economic Union, create a new space and opportunities for development and achieve prosperity with the Eurasian countries. All this forms unprecedented opportunities for development of bilateral economic and trade relations. It seems that to fully open the potential of Ukrainian economy and expand bilateral trade and economic cooperation, it is necessary to take into account such proposals as the establishment of the Sino-Ukrainian industrial park, the promotion of cooperation in the field of electronic commerce, the formation of the Sino-Ukrainian free trade zone and enhanced interaction within multilateral mechanisms (for example, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the interaction of China and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the 16 + 1 format).


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (8) ◽  
pp. 80-95
Author(s):  
D. V. GORDIENKO ◽  

The military component of the Russian Federation's policy in the "strategic triangle" Russia-China-USA occupies an important place in the implementation of Russian aspirations in various regions of the world. The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of the military component of the Russian Federation's policy in the Russia-China- US strategic triangle on the implementation of current Russian policy in the post-Soviet space, in the Asia-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions, in the Arctic, the Middle East and other regions of the world. The paper examines the influence of the military component of the Russian Federation's policy in the Russia- China-USA “strategic triangle”, proposes an approach to a comparative assessment of this influence, which allows identifying the priorities of Russian policy in the post-Soviet space, in the Asia-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions, in the Arctic, on The Middle East and other regions of the world. A comparative assessment of the influence of the military component of the Russian Federation's policy in the Russia-China-USA “strategic triangle” can be used to substantiate recommendations to the military-political leadership of our country. The article concludes that the military component of Russian policy occupies a dominant position in the implementation of the current policy of the Russian Federation in the post-Soviet space, in the Asia- Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions, in the Arctic, the Middle East and in other regions of the world.


2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 3062-3080 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khar Mang Tan ◽  
Fakarudin Kamarudin ◽  
Amin Noordin Bany-Ariffin ◽  
Norhuda Abdul Rahim

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the firm efficiency or technical efficiency (TE), pure technical efficiency (PTE) and scale efficiency (SE) in the selected developed and developing Asia-Pacific countries. Design/methodology/approach The sample consists of a sum of 700 firms in selected developed and developing Asia-Pacific countries over the period from 2009 to 2015. The non-parametric data envelopment analysis under the production approach is used to investigate firm efficiency. Findings On average, this paper discovers that the firms in selected Asia-Pacific countries are moderately efficient. Scale inefficiency (SIE) is found to be the dominant source of firms’ technical inefficiency. The analysis of return to scale shows that the large firms tend to operate at decreasing return to scale level, while the small firms tend to operate at increasing return to scale level. Practical implications The findings from this paper provide significant insights to the policy makers and firm managers in promoting the efficient firms of Asia-Pacific countries. Originality/value The present paper conducts a critical analysis on return to scale in the firms sector of Asia-Pacific context, which is ignored by the past studies on firm efficiency since the analysis of return to scale is mostly emphasized on banking sector. The precise nature of SIE is important for a firm to be efficient in achieving the firm’s primary goals of profit maximization and sustaining market competitiveness.


Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1083-1102
Author(s):  
Georgios N. Aretoulis ◽  
Jason Papathanasiou ◽  
Fani Antoniou

Purpose This paper aims to rank and identify the most efficient project managers (PMs) based on personality traits, using Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) methodology. Design/methodology/approach The proposed methodology relies on the five personality traits. These were used as the selection criteria. A questionnaire survey among 82 experienced engineers was used to estimate the required weights per personality trait. A second two-part questionnaire survey aimed at recording the PMs profile and assess the performance of personality traits per PM. PMs with the most years of experience are selected to be ranked through Visual PROMETHEE. Findings The findings suggest that a competent PM is the one that scores low on the “Neuroticism” trait and high especially on the “Conscientiousness” trait. Research limitations/implications The research applied a psychometric test specifically designed for Greek people. Furthermore, the proposed methodology is based on the personality characteristics to rank the PMs and does not consider the technical skills. Furthermore, the type of project is not considered in the process of ranking PMs. Practical implications The findings could contribute in the selection of the best PM that maximizes the project team’s performance. Social implications Improved project team communication and collaboration leading to improved project performance through better communication and collaboration. This is an additional benefit for the society, especially in the delivery of public infrastructure projects. A lot of public infrastructure projects deviate largely as far as cost and schedule is concerned and this is an additional burden for public and society. Proper project management through efficient PMs would save people’s money and time. Originality/value Identification of the best PMbased on a combination of multicriteria decision-making and psychometric tests, which focus on personality traits.


2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 478-491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dwie Irmawaty Gultom

Purpose – Trust in disaster communication is significant because a lack of trust will prevent the transformation of information into usable knowledge for an effective disaster response. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate how the culture and network ties of an affected community can encourage trust and participation in disaster communication. Design/methodology/approach – A qualitative case study of Jalin Merapi (JM) was conducted by interviewing 33 research participants in the Mt Merapi surroundings. Findings – The findings indicate that culture-embedded disaster communication plays important roles in increasing the effectiveness of disaster information and encouraging trust in the authenticity of locally based disaster information at the individual level. The findings also identify that strong ties and weak ties play different roles in disaster communication. The strong ties are more effective in facilitating information diffusion and encourage trust and community participation within the affected community. Furthermore, the weak ties are more effective in disseminating information to wider audiences, and have an indirect influence in encouraging trust by extending the offline social network owned by the affected community. Originality/value – Most literature on disaster communication focusses on the construction of disaster messages to encourage effective disaster response. Less attention has been paid to the information receivers regarding how disaster information is considered to be trustworthy by the affected community and how it can increase collective participation in community-based disaster communication.


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