scholarly journals The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
pp. e1501452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miodrag Stevanović ◽  
Alexander Popp ◽  
Hermann Lotze-Campen ◽  
Jan Philipp Dietrich ◽  
Christoph Müller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Consumer Surplus ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Compensation Mechanisms ◽  
The Impact

Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered.

scholarly journals A large-sample investigation into uncertain climate change impacts on high flows across Great Britain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosanna Lane ◽  
Gemma Coxon ◽  
Jim Freer ◽  
Jan Seibert ◽  
Thorsten Wagener
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Parameter Uncertainties ◽  
High Flows ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change may significantly increase flood risk across Great Britain (GB), but there are large uncertainties in both future climatic changes and how these propagate into changing river flows. Here, the impact of climate change on the magnitude and frequency of high flows is modelled for 346 larger (> 144 km2) catchments across GB using the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) and the DECIPHeR hydrological modelling framework. This study provides the first spatially consistent GB projections including both climate ensembles and hydrological model parameter uncertainties. Generally, results indicated an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high flows (Q10, Q1 and annual maximum) along the west coast of GB in the future (2050–2075), with increases in annual maximum flows of up to 65 % for west Scotland. In contrast, median flows (Q50) were projected to decrease across GB. All flow projections contained large uncertainties, and while the RCMs were the largest source of uncertainty overall, hydrological modelling uncertainties were considerable in east and south-east England. Regional variation in flow projections were found to relate to i) differences in climatic change and ii) catchment conditions during the baseline period as characterised by the runoff coefficient (mean discharge divided by mean precipitation). Importantly, increased heavy-precipitation events (defined by an increase in 99th percentile precipitation) did not always result in increased flood flows for catchments with low runoff coefficients, highlighting the varying factors leading to changes in high flows. These results provide a national overview of climate change impacts on high flows across GB, which will inform climate change adaptation, while also highlighting the need to account for uncertainty sources when modelling climate change impact on high flows.

scholarly journals Assessment of the climate change impacts on the water resources of the Luni region, India

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-40 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Moisture Deficit ◽  
Hydro Climatology ◽  
The Impact

<div> <p>Climate change is expected to have a strong impact on water resources at the local, regional and global scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the Luni region, India, is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The use of different scenarios allows for the estimation of uncertainty of future impacts. The projections are based on the CORDEX-South Asia framework and are bias-corrected using the DBS method before being entered into the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) hydrological model to generate predictions of runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit, and applied irrigation water to soil. Overall, the high uncertainty in the climate projections is propagated in the impact model, and as a result the spatiotemporal distribution of change is subject to the climate change scenario. In general, for all scenarios, results show a -20 to +20% change in the long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration, whereas more pronounced impacts are expected for runoff (-40 to +40% change). Climate change can also affect other hydro-climatic components, however, at a lower impact. Finally, the flow dynamics in the Luni River are substantially affected in terms of shape and magnitude.</p> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p>

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Sunflower (Helianthus annus L.) Plants

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 2646
Author(s):  
Eloísa Agüera ◽  
Purificación de la Haba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Elevated Temperatures ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Carbon And Nitrogen ◽  
Crop Development ◽  
Helianthus Annus ◽  
The Face ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
The Impact

The biochemical, biological, and morphogenetic processes of plants are affected by ongoing climate change, causing alterations in crop development, growth, and productivity. Climate change is currently producing ecosystem modifications, making it essential to study plants with an improved adaptive capacity in the face of environmental modifications. This work examines the physiological and metabolic changes taking place during the development of sunflower plants due to environmental modifications resulting from climate change: elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and increased temperatures. Variations in growth, and carbon and nitrogen metabolism, as well as their effect on the plant’s oxidative state in sunflower (Helianthus annus L.) plants, are studied. An understanding of the effect of these interacting factors (elevated CO2 and elevated temperatures) on plant development and stress response is imperative to understand the impact of climate change on plant productivity.

scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological, Hydrological, and Agricultural Droughts in the Lake Titicaca Basin

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 175
Author(s):  
Ricardo Zubieta ◽  
Jorge Molina-Carpio ◽  
Wilber Laqui ◽  
Juan Sulca ◽  
Mercy Ilbay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Lake Titicaca ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrological Droughts

The impact of climate change on droughts in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopo basins (TDPS system) within the Altiplano region was evaluated by comparing projected 2034–2064 and observed 1984–2014 hydroclimate time series. The study used bias-corrected monthly climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts were analyzed from the standardized precipitation, standardized soil moisture, and standardized runoff indices, respectively, the latter two estimated from a hydrological model. Under scenarios of mean temperature increases up to 3 °C and spatially diverse precipitation changes, our results indicate that meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts will become more intense, frequent, and prolonged in most of the TDPS. A significant increase in the frequency of short-term agricultural and hydrological droughts (duration of 1–2 months) is also projected. The expected decline in annual rainfall and the larger evapotranspiration increase in the southern TDPS combine to yield larger projected rises in the frequency and intensity of agricultural and hydrological droughts in this region.

scholarly journals Amplified Impact of Climate Change on Fine-Sediment Delivery to a Subsiding Coast, Humboldt Bay, California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. Curtis ◽  
Lorraine E. Flint ◽  
Michelle A. Stern ◽  
Jack Lewis ◽  
Randy D. Klein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Sediment Delivery ◽  
Beneficial Reuse ◽  
Coastal Margin

AbstractIn Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsidence and SLR must be balanced by an adequate sediment supply. This study used an ensemble of plausible future scenarios to predict potential climate change impacts on suspended-sediment discharge (Qss) from fluvial sources. Streamflow was simulated using a deterministic water-balance model, and Qss was computed using statistical sediment-transport models. Changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2010) were used to assess climate impacts. For local basins that discharge directly to the bay, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 27% for the mid-century (2040–2069) and 58% for the end-of-century (2070–2099). For the Eel River, a regional sediment source that discharges sediment-laden plumes to the coastal margin, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 53% for the mid-century and 99% for the end-of-century. Climate projections of increased precipitation and streamflow produced amplified increases in the regional sediment supply that may partially or wholly mitigate sediment demand caused by the combined effects of subsidence and SLR. This finding has important implications for coastal resiliency. Coastal regions with an increasing sediment supply may be more resilient to SLR. In a broader context, an increasing sediment supply from fluvial sources has global relevance for communities threatened by SLR that are increasingly building resiliency to SLR using sediment-based solutions that include regional sediment management, beneficial reuse strategies, and marsh restoration.

scholarly journals Urban Geometry Optimization to Mitigate Climate Change: Towards Energy-Efficient Buildings

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Hatem Mahmoud ◽  
Ayman Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Efficiency ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Geometry ◽  
Outdoor Spaces ◽  
The Impact

The density of building blocks and insufficient greenery in cities tend to contribute dramatically not only to increased heat stress in the built environment but also to higher energy demand for cooling. Urban planners should, therefore, be conscious of their responsibility to reduce energy usage of buildings along with improving outdoor thermal efficiency. This study examines the impact of numerous proposed urban geometry cases on the thermal efficiency of outer spaces as well as the energy consumption of adjacent buildings under various climate change scenarios as representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate projections for New Aswan city in 2035. The investigation was performed at one of the most underutilized outdoor spaces on the new campus of Aswan University in New Aswan city. The potential reduction of heat stress was investigated so as to improve the thermal comfort of the investigated outdoor spaces, as well as energy savings based on the proposed strategies. Accordingly, the most appropriate scenario to be adopted to cope with the inevitable climate change was identified. The proposed scenarios were divided into four categories of parameters. In the first category, shelters partially (25–50% and 75%) covering the streets were used. The second category proposed dividing the space parallel or perpendicular to the existing buildings. The third category was a hybrid scenario of the first and second categories. In the fourth category, a green cover of grass was added. A coupling evaluation was applied utilizing ENVI-met v4.2 and Design-Builder v4.5 to measure and improve the thermal efficiency of the outdoor space and reduce the cooling energy. The results demonstrated that it is better to cover outdoor spaces with 50% of the overall area than transform outdoor spaces into canyons.

scholarly journals Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1712) ◽  
pp. 1661-1669 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alonso ◽  
Menno J. Bouma ◽  
Mercedes Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Nonlinear Response ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Human Model ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
East African ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970–2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito–human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

Soil Type Modifies the Impacts of Warming and Snow Exclusion on Carbon and Nutrient Losses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie M. Juice ◽  
Paul G. Schaberg ◽  
Alexandra M. Kosiba ◽  
Carl E. Waite ◽  
Gary J. Hawley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nutrient Cycling ◽  
Soil Type ◽  
Soil Characteristics ◽  
Nutrient Loss ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Nutrient Losses ◽  
N Losses ◽  
Total N ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The varied and wide-reaching impacts of climate change are occurring across heterogeneous landscapes. Despite the known importance of soils in mediating biogeochemical nutrient cycling, there is little experimental evidence of how soil characteristics may shape ecosystem response to climate change. Our objective was to clarify how soil characteristics modify the impact of climate changes on carbon and nutrient leaching losses in temperate forests. We therefore conducted a field-based mesocosm experiment with replicated warming and snow exclusion treatments on two soils in large (2.4 m diameter), in-field forest sapling mesocosms. We found that nutrient loss responses to warming and snow exclusion treatments frequently varied substantially by soil type. Indeed, in some cases, soil type nullified the impact of a climate treatment. For example, warming and snow exclusion increased nitrogen (N) losses on fine soils by up to four times versus controls, but these treatments had no impact on coarse soils. Generally, the coarse textured soil, with its lower soil-water holding capacity, had higher nutrient losses (e.g., 12-17 times more total N loss from coarse than fine soils), except in the case of phosphate, which had consistently higher losses (23-58%) from the finer textured soil. Furthermore, the mitigation of nutrient loss by increasing tree biomass varied by soil type and nutrient. Our results suggest that potentially large biogeochemical responses to climate change are strongly mediated by soil characteristics, providing further evidence of the need to consider soil properties in Earth system models for improving nutrient cycling and climate projections.

Structural safety and design under climate change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on climatic actions could significantly affect, in the mid-term future, the design of new structures as well as the reliability of existing ones designed in accordance to the provisions of present and past codes. Indeed, current climatic loads are defined under the assumption of stationary climate conditions but climate is not stationary and the current accelerated rate of changes imposes to consider its effects.</p><p>Increase of greenhouse gas emissions generally induces a global increase of the average temperature, but at local scale, the consequences of this phenomenon could be much more complex and even apparently not coherent with the global trend of main climatic parameters, like for example, temperature, rainfalls, snowfalls and wind velocity.</p><p>In the paper, a general methodology is presented, aiming to evaluate the impact of climate change on structural design, as the result of variations of characteristic values of the most relevant climatic actions over time. The proposed procedure is based on the analysis of an ensemble of climate projections provided according a medium and a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Factor of change for extreme value distribution’s parameters and return values are thus estimated in subsequent time windows providing guidance for adaptation of the current definition of structural loads.</p><p>The methodology is illustrated together with the outcomes obtained for snow, wind and thermal actions in Italy. Finally, starting from the estimated changes in extreme value parameters, the influence on the long-term structural reliability can be investigated comparing the resulting time dependent reliability with the reference reliability levels adopted in modern Structural codes.</p>

scholarly journals Producing hydrologic scenarios from raw climate model outputs using an asynchronous modelling framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Ricard ◽  
Philippe Lucas-Picher ◽  
François Anctil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Simulated Climate ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Statistical post-processing of climate model outputs is a common hydroclimatic modelling practice aiming to produce climate scenarios that better fit in-situ observations and to produce reliable stream flows forcing calibrated hydrologic models. Such practice is however criticized for disrupting the physical consistency between simulated climate variables and affecting the trends in climate change signals imbedded within raw climate simulations. It also requires abundant good-quality meteorological observations, which are not available for many regions in the world. A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations, nor for statistical post-processing of climate model outputs, nor for calibrating hydrologic models. By combining asynchronous hydroclimatic modelling, an alternative framework designed to construct hydrologic scenarios without resorting to meteorological observations, and quantile perturbation applied to streamflow observations, the proposed workflow produces sound and plausible hydrologic scenarios considering: (1) they preserve trends and physical consistency between simulated climate variables, (2) are implemented from a modelling cascades despite observation scarcity, and (3) support the participation of end-users in producing and interpreting climate change impacts on water resources. The proposed modelling workflow is implemented over four subcatchments of the Chaudière River, Canada, using 9 North American CORDEX simulations and a pool of lumped conceptual hydrologic models. Forced with raw climate model outputs, hydrologic models are calibrated over the reference period according to a calibration metric designed to function with temporally uncorrelated observed and simulated streamflow values. Perturbation factors are defined by relating each simulated streamflow quantiles over both reference and future periods. Hydrologic scenarios are finally produced by applying perturbation factors to available streamflow observations.

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