scholarly journals Evolution of Electoral Preferences for a Regime of Three Political Parties

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Guadalupe Medina Guevara ◽  
Héctor Vargas Rodríguez ◽  
Pedro Basilio Espinoza Padilla ◽  
José Luis Gozález Solís
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Stochastic Matrix ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Confidence Bound ◽  
New Agents ◽  
Artificial Society ◽  
Analytical Results ◽  
The Social ◽  
Iterative Maps ◽  
Electoral Preferences

In this article, we use a discrete system to study the opinion dynamics regarding the electoral preferences of a nontendentious group of agents. To measure the level of preference, a continuous opinion space is used, in which the preference (opinion) can evolve from any political option, to any other; for a regime of three parties, a circle is the convenient space. To model a nonbiased society, new agents are considered. Besides their opinion, they have a new attribute: an individual iterative monoparametric map that imitates a process of internal reflection, allowing them to update their opinion in their own way. These iterative maps introduce six fixed points on the opinion space; the points’ stability depends on the sign of the parameter. When the latter is positive, three attractors are identified with political options, while the repulsors are identified with the antioptions (preferences diametrically opposed to each political choice). In this new model, pairs of agents interact only if their respective opinions are alike; a positive number called confidence bound is introduced with this purpose; if opinions are similar, they update their opinion considering each other’s opinion, while if they are not alike, each agent updates her opinion considering only her individual map. In addition, agents give a certain level of trust (weight) to other agent’s opinions; this results in a positive stochastic matrix of weights which models the social network. The model can be reduced to a pair of coupled nonlinear difference equations, making extracting analytical results possible: a theorem on the conditions governing the existence of consensus in this new artificial society. Some numerical simulations are provided, exemplifying the analytical results.

scholarly journals ON THE CONSENSUS THRESHOLD FOR THE OPINION DYNAMICS OF KRAUSE–HEGSELMANN

2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (02) ◽  
pp. 259-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
SANTO FORTUNATO
Keyword(s):  
Social Relationships ◽  
Complete Graph ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Consensus Model ◽  
Confidence Bound ◽  
Real Numbers ◽  
Numerical Evidence ◽  
Two Agents ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Difference

In the consensus model of Krause–Hegselmann, opinions are real numbers between 0 and 1, and two agents are compatible if the difference of their opinions is smaller than the confidence bound parameter ∊. A randomly chosen agent takes the average of the opinions of all neighboring agents which are compatible with it. We propose a conjecture, based on numerical evidence, on the value of the consensus threshold ∊c of this model. We claim that ∊c can take only two possible values, depending on the behavior of the average degree d of the graph representing the social relationships, when the population N approaches infinity: if d diverges when N→∞, ∊c equals the consensus threshold ∊i~0.2 on the complete graph; if instead d stays finite when N→∞, ∊c =1/2 as for the model of Deffuant et al.

The Ideology of Socialism and the Armenian Political Parties

wisdom ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-113
Author(s):  
Gegham HOVHANNISYAN
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Life ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Organizations ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Social ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
The Given

The article covers the manifestations and peculiarities of the ideology of socialism in the social-political life of Armenia at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century. General characteristics, aims and directions of activity of the political organizations functioning in the Armenian reality within the given time-period, whose program documents feature the ideology of socialism to one degree or another, are given (Hunchakian Party, Dashnaktsutyun, Armenian Social-democrats, Specifics, Socialists-revolutionaries). The specific peculiarities of the national-political life of Armenia in the given time-period and their impact on the ideology of political forces are introduced.

The Social and Attitudinal Basis of Political Parties: Cleavage Politics Revisited

2008 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 287-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zsolt Enyedi
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
Social Embeddedness ◽  
Democratic Representation ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Relationship

As a result of various political and non-political developments, the socio-culturally anchored and well structured character of European party systems has come under strain. This article assesses the overall social embeddedness of modern party politics and identifies newly emerging conflict-lines. It draws attention to phenomena that do not fit into the trend of dealignment, and discusses the relationship between group-based politics and democratic representation.

Why Legislative Networks? Analyzing Legislative Network Formation

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 505-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Wojcik
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Network Formation ◽  
Contemporary Literature ◽  
Party Organization ◽  
Exponential Random Graph Models ◽  
Graph Models ◽  
Personal Traits ◽  
Random Graph Models ◽  
Exponential Random Graph ◽  
The Social

Are the social networks of legislators affected more by their political parties or their personal traits? How does the party organization influence the tendency of members to work collectively on a day-to-day basis? In this paper, I explore the determinants of the relationships of legislators in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies. I use exponential random graph models to evaluate the relative influence of personal traits versus party influence in generating legislator relationships. Despite a focus on personalism in Brazil, the analysis reveals that the effects of political parties on tie formation are roughly equal to the effects of personal traits, suggesting that networks may make political parties much more cohesive than contemporary literature would lead us to believe.

scholarly journals Asking about social circles improves election predictions even with many political parties

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wandi Bruine de Bruin ◽  
Mirta Galesic ◽  
Rasmus A. Bååth ◽  
Jochem de Bresser ◽  
Lars Hall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
General Election ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Social Circle ◽  
The Social ◽  
Election Polls ◽  
Voting Intentions

Traditionally, election polls have asked for participants’ own voting intentions. In Nature HumanBehaviour, we reported that we could improve predictions of the 2016 US and 2017 Frenchpresidential elections by asking participants how they thought their social circles would vote. Apotential concern is that the social circle question might predict less well in elections with largernumbers of political options, because it becomes harder to keep track of how social contacts planto vote. However, we have now found that the social circle question even performs better thanthe own intention question, in predictions of two elections with many political parties: The Netherlands’2017 general election and the Swedish 2018 general election.

scholarly journals Notes on the Study of Political Parties in the Third World

1994 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 659-694 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Crotty
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Colonial Period ◽  
The Body ◽  
The Social ◽  
National Leaders ◽  
Theoretical Conception ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
The Third World ◽  
Historical Accounts

The research on political parties in developing nations is difficult to aggregate and to place in a comparative context. The reasons are many. The body of work is at best modest in size as well as uneven in focus, theoretical conception and empirical execution. Often comparative or more generalizable indicators and conclusions must be extracted from studies intended to clarify social developments over broad periods of time or, alternatively, within carefully set historical boundaries (the colonial; the transition from the colonial period to independence; post-independence developments; political conditions under specific national leaders, as examples). The efforts are broad stroke, primarily descriptive and usually interwoven with historical accounts and explanations of the social, economic and cultural factors that condition the life of a country. The range appears to run from megatheories-or, more accurately, broadly generalized interpretative sets of categorizations and conclusions applied to a region or a collection of countries (the research itself is seldom theoretically focused), supported by interpretative essays and expert, professionalized observation and background knowledge-to case studies of differing degrees of elaborateness. There is little in between.

scholarly journals Correlation analysis of voting results in the Russian federal and regional elections of 2011–2018

2021 ◽  
pp. 205-225
Author(s):  
Arkady Lyubarev
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Social Closeness ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Stability ◽  
High Level ◽  
Regional Elections

Correlation coefficients between the results of political parties in the 2016 State Duma elections in the Russian Federation as a whole and in 26 regions, as well as in the elections of regional parliaments of 35 subjects of the Russian Federation in 2012–2015 were calculated. For the 2016 State Duma elections, data was used at all levels – regions, single-member electoral districts, TEC and PEC. It is noted that the “United Russia” correlations with all major parties are generally negative. A fairly high level of correlation is observed between the liberal parties. The main focus is on correlations between parliamentary opposition parties and parties with similar names. The correlation coefficients between the results of parties and candidates in the State Duma elections of 2011 and 2016 and the Presidential elections of 2012 and 2018 were also calculated, showing the stability of the geographical distribution of the electorate of the main parties. Regional differences in the nature of correlations between the main political parties are noted. It is assumed that correlations between parties reflect not so much their ideological closeness as the social closeness of their electorate. In this regard, it is noted that a positive correlation between the results of ideologically distant parties (“Yabloko” and the Communist party or “Yabloko” and “Rodina”) is associated with their reliance on the urban electorate and, perhaps, its most educated part. The reasons for voting for spoiler parties and the role of these parties in reducing the results of the main participants in the elections are discussed.

scholarly journals Usage of Social Media by Leading Political Parties in General Election 2018 of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol V (III) ◽  
pp. 32-43
Author(s):  
Ashraf Iqbal ◽  
Kishwer Perveen ◽  
Saima Waheed
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Social Networking ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Social Networking Sites ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
The Social ◽  
Setting Theory ◽  
Social Media Tools

Social Networking sites are highly used for political proposes. In this study, the research tried to search the usage of social media by political parties during elections campaigns 2018 in Pakistan. The researcher applied the agenda-setting theory to link the social media posts of these political parties' pages and content analysis research technique for analyzing the variables. It was concluded from the that these social media are highly used for mobilizing voters where the users of these mediums not only see these posts but also like, comment and share for responding about what is uploaded on these social media pages by the representatives of political parties. It is concluded that from three trending political parties, PTI emerged as the most dominant party by using these social media tools, by uploading a maximum number of posts, by mobilizing voters to vote for a specific political party.

scholarly journals How to Analyze Islamist Politics: Is it possible to make a Political Study without Sociology of Islam?

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özgür Erden
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
Political Analysis ◽  
Political Relations ◽  
The Social

This article embarks on making a political analysis of Islamist politics by criticizing the hegemonic approach in the field and considering a number of the institutions or structures, composing of either state and its ideological-repressive apparatuses, political parties and actors, intellectual leadership and ideology, and political relations, events, or facts in political sphere. The aforesaid approach declares that the social and economic factors, namely class position, capital accumulation, market, education, and culture, have been far better significative for a political study in examining any political movement, party, and fact or event. However, our study will more stress on political structures, events and struggles or conflicts produced and reproduced by the political institutions, the relationships and the processes in question. Taking into account all these, it will be argued that they have been more significant as compared to class position, capital accumulation, market in economic structure, or culture and education, in a political study.

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