Provenance-specific climate sensitivity of Pinus massoniana – a multi-environmental trial in subtropical China

Climate change is causing changes in tree species performance and distribution, impacting breeding programme effectiveness. Our aim was to analyse the effects of provenance and climatic factorson the annual ring density of Masson pine (Pinus massoniana Lamb.) at different experimental sites and potential breeding strategies that may be developed in response to future climate change. The study trees represented provenances originating from the western, east-central, northern, and southern regions of P. massoniana distribution in China. The wood density differed significantly among provenances. A multisite variance analysis test showed that the type B correlation coefficients for ring density at the two sites studied were less than 0.8, indicating an interaction effect of genotype by environment (G×E) on tree ring density. Climatic factors directly affected the wood density properties. At Chun’an (CA), the maximum latewood density (MXD) and minimum earlywood density (MND) were positively correlated with absolute maximum temperatures in August and May of the current growing season, respectively. At Taizi Mountain (TZS), MXD was significantly positively correlated with absolute maximum temperature in September ofthe current year and significantly negatively correlated with precipitation in June. MND was significantly positively correlated with absolute maximum temperature in May of the current year and significantly negatively correlated with precipitation in April. The climatic effects on P. massoniana wood density differed among seed-source origins. This study showed that ring density characteristics differed significantly among provenances, and provenance selection could promote wood density. MXD and MND exhibited significant genotype-by-environment interaction effects, and significant correlations were found between ring density and temperature, and precipitation conditions. These findings suggest that climatic factors and site conditionsin addition to genetics could be strong drivers of wood density variation, and/or that wood density is a highly plastic trait.

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Strong controls of daily minimum temperature on the autumn photosynthetic phenology of subtropical vegetation in China

Forest Ecosystems ◽

10.1186/s40663-021-00309-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Peixin Ren ◽

Zelin Liu ◽

Xiaolu Zhou ◽

Changhui Peng ◽

Jingfeng Xiao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Time Lag ◽

Evergreen Forest ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Daily Minimum Temperature ◽

Study Region ◽

Cumulative Precipitation

Abstract Background Vegetation phenology research has largely focused on temperate deciduous forests, thus limiting our understanding of the response of evergreen vegetation to climate change in tropical and subtropical regions. Results Using satellite solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data, we applied two methods to evaluate temporal and spatial patterns of the end of the growing season (EGS) in subtropical vegetation in China, and analyze the dependence of EGS on preseason maximum and minimum temperatures as well as cumulative precipitation. Our results indicated that the averaged EGS derived from the SIF and EVI based on the two methods (dynamic threshold method and derivative method) was later than that derived from gross primary productivity (GPP) based on the eddy covariance technique, and the time-lag for EGSsif and EGSevi was approximately 2 weeks and 4 weeks, respectively. We found that EGS was positively correlated with preseason minimum temperature and cumulative precipitation (accounting for more than 73% and 62% of the study areas, respectively), but negatively correlated with preseason maximum temperature (accounting for more than 59% of the study areas). In addition, EGS was more sensitive to the changes in the preseason minimum temperature than to other climatic factors, and an increase in the preseason minimum temperature significantly delayed the EGS in evergreen forests, shrub and grassland. Conclusions Our results indicated that the SIF outperformed traditional vegetation indices in capturing the autumn photosynthetic phenology of evergreen forest in the subtropical region of China. We found that minimum temperature plays a significant role in determining autumn photosynthetic phenology in the study region. These findings contribute to improving our understanding of the response of the EGS to climate change in subtropical vegetation of China, and provide a new perspective for accurately evaluating the role played by evergreen vegetation in the regional carbon budget.

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Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Food Security of Nepal

Hydro Nepal Journal of Water Energy and Environment ◽

10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 ◽

2012 ◽

pp. 59-63

Author(s):

Roshan Kumar Mehta ◽

Shree Chandra Shah

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Production ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Monsoon Season ◽

Groundwater Table ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Aquatic Life ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Average Maximum ◽

Water Scarce

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere is widely believed to be causing climate change. It affects agriculture, forestry, human health, biodiversity, and snow cover and aquatic life. Changes in climatic factors like temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have potential to influence agrobiodiversity and its production. An average of 0.04°C/ year and 0.82 mm/year rise in annual average maximum temperature and precipitation respectively from 1975 to 2006 has been recorded in Nepal. Frequent droughts, rise in temperature, shortening of the monsoon season with high intensity rainfall, severe floods, landslides and mixed effects on agricultural biodiversity have been experienced in Nepal due to climatic changes. A survey done in the Chitwan District reveals that lowering of the groundwater table decreases production and that farmers are attracted to grow less water consuming crops during water scarce season. The groundwater table in the study area has lowered nearly one meter from that of 15 years ago as experienced by the farmers. Traditional varieties of rice have been replaced in the last 10 years by modern varieties, and by agricultural crops which demand more water for cultivation. The application of groundwater for irrigation has increased the cost of production and caused severe negative impacts on marginal crop production and agro-biodiversity. It is timely that suitable adaptive measures are identified in order to make Nepalese agriculture more resistant to the adverse impacts of climate change, especially those caused by erratic weather patterns such as the ones experienced recently.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.59-63

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Assessing runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes under global climate-change scenarios

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2018.192 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 50 (1) ◽

pp. 24-42 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Lei Chen ◽

Jianxia Chang ◽

Yimin Wang ◽

Yuelu Zhu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Yellow River ◽

Control Variable ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

Runoff Change ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract An accurate grasp of the influence of precipitation and temperature changes on the variation in both the magnitude and temporal patterns of runoff is crucial to the prevention of floods and droughts. However, there is a general lack of understanding of the ways in which runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes are associated with the CMIP5 scenarios. This paper investigates the hydrological response to future climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and then quantitatively assesses runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes under different scenarios by using a set of simulations with the control variable method. The source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) is an ideal area to study this problem. The results demonstrated that the precipitation effect was the dominant element influencing runoff change (the degree of influence approaching 23%), followed by maximum temperature (approaching 12%). The weakest element was minimum temperature (approaching 3%), despite the fact that the increases in minimum temperature were higher than the increases in maximum temperature. The results also indicated that the degree of runoff sensitivity to precipitation and temperature changes was subject to changing external climatic conditions.

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Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change and Vegetation Variation on Actual Evapotranspiration Based on the Budyko Hypothesis in North and South Panjiang Basin, China

Water ◽

10.3390/w12020508 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 508 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Tiansheng Li ◽

Jun Xia ◽

Dunxian She ◽

Lei Cheng ◽

Lei Zou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Surface ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Actual Evapotranspiration ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Linear Regression Method ◽

North And South ◽

Average Contribution ◽

Vegetation Variation ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Actual evapotranspiration (Ea) plays a key role in the global water and energy cycles. The accurate quantification of the impacts of different factors on Ea change can help us better understand the driving mechanisms of Ea in a changing environment. Climate change and vegetation variations are well known as two main factors that have significant impacts on Ea change. Our study used three differential Budyko-type equations to quantify the contributions of climate change and vegetation variations to Ea change. First, in order to establish the relationship between the parameter n, which usually presents the land surface characteristics in the Budyko-type equations, with basic climatic variables and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the stepwise linear regression method has been used. Then, elasticity and contribution analyses were performed to quantify the contributions of different numbers of climatic factors and NDVI to Ea change. The North and South Panjiang basin in China was selected to investigate the efficiency of the modified Budyko-type equations and quantify the impacts of climate change and vegetation variations on Ea change. The empirical formal of the parameter n established in this study can be used to simulate the parameter n and Ea for the study area. The results of the elasticity and contribution analyses suggest that climate change contributed (whose average contribution is 149.6%) more to Ea change than vegetation variation (whose average contribution is −49.4%). Precipitation, NDVI and the maximum temperature are the major drivers of Ea change, while the minimum temperature and wind speed contribute the least to Ea change.

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Grain yield, net blotch and scald of barley in Finnish official variety trials

Agricultural and Food Science ◽

10.23986/afsci.72803 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 6 (5-6) ◽

pp. 399-408 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Jonathan Robinson ◽

Marja Jalli

Keyword(s):

Grain Yield ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Disease Incidence ◽

Genotype By Environment Interaction ◽

Environment Interaction ◽

Net Blotch ◽

Yield Data ◽

Variety Trials ◽

Genotype By Environment ◽

Barley Genotypes

Data on grain yield, and terminal severity of net blotch (Pyrenophora teres f. teres) and scald (Rhynchosporium secalis) from Finnish official barley (Hordeum vulgare) variety trials were analysed to indicate the pattern of disease incidence over six years and five sites for nineteen barley genotypes, and the effect of the diseases on yield and the genotype by environment interaction for yield. The effect of climatic factors on net blotch severity were also investigated. The genotype by site interaction for net blotch severity was not statistically significant, but that for yield was. Net blotch severity differed between years, but was similar across sites and there were statistically significant first order interactions between year, site and genotype. ‘Saana’ and ‘Thule’ had relatively low mean terminal net blotch scores and their reaction to the disease was less sensitive to the environment than was that of ‘Tyra’ for example. Analysis of yield data adjusted for net blotch severity indicated that the magnitude of the genotype by environment interaction terms were not accounted for to any significant degree by differences in relative net blotch resistances among the barley genotypes. Overall, mean scores for scald severity were lower than those for net blotch. Terminal net blotch severity was correlated with May rainfall and growing degree days.

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Vertical Differences in the Long-Term Trends and Breakpoints of NDVI and Climate Factors in Taiwan

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13224707 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (22) ◽

pp. 4707

Author(s):

Hui Ping Tsai ◽

Geng-Gui Wang ◽

Zhong-Han Zhuang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Climatic Data ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Central Regions ◽

Long Term Trends

This study explored the long-term trends and breakpoints of vegetation, rainfall, and temperature in Taiwan from overall and regional perspectives in terms of vertical differences from 1982 to 2012. With time-series Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and Taiwan Climate Change Estimate and Information Platform (TCCIP) gridded monthly climatic data, their vertical dynamics were investigated by employing the Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST) algorithm, Pearson’s correlation analysis, and the Durbin–Watson test. The vertical differences in NDVI values presented three breakpoints and a consistent trend from positive (1982 to 1989) to negative at varied rates, and then gradually increased after 2000. In addition, a positive rainfall trend was discovered. Average and maximum temperature had similar increasing trends, while minimum temperature showed variations, especially at higher altitudes. In terms of regional variations, the vegetation growth was stable in the north but worse in the central region. Higher elevations revealed larger variations in the NDVI and temperature datasets. NDVI, along with average and minimum temperature, showed their largest changes earlier in higher altitude areas. Specifically, the increasing minimum temperature direction was more prominent in the mid-to-high-altitude areas in the eastern and central regions. Seasonal variations were observed for each region. The difference between the dry and wet seasons is becoming larger, with the smallest difference in the northern region and the largest difference in the southern region. Taiwan’s NDVI and climatic factors have a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05), but the maximum and minimum temperatures have significant positive effects at low altitudes below 500 m. The northern and central regions reveal similar responses, while the south and east display different feedbacks. The results illuminate climate change evidence from assessment of the long-term dynamics of vegetation and climatic factors, providing valuable references for establishing correspondent climate-adaptive strategies in Taiwan.

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Assessment of Future Climate Change Projections Using Multiple Global Climate Models

Civil Engineering Journal ◽

10.28991/cej-2019-03091401 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (10) ◽

pp. 2152-2166 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Han Thi Oo ◽

Win Win Zin ◽

Cho Cho Thin Kyi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Temperature Rise ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Winter Season ◽

Future Climate ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Seasonal Temperature ◽

Suitable Climate

Nowadays, the hydrological cycle which alters river discharge and water availability is affected by climate change. Therefore, the understanding of climate change is curial for the security of hydrologic conditions of river basins. The main purpose of this study is to assess the projections of future climate across the Upper Ayeyarwady river basin for its sustainable development and management of water sector for this area. Global Ten climate Models available from CMIP5 represented by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report were bias corrected using linear scaling method to generate the model error. Among the GCMs, a suitable climate model for each station is selected based on the results of performance indicators (R2 and RMSE). Future climate data are projected based on the selected suitable climate models by using future climate scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. According to this study, future projection indicates to increase in precipitation amounts in the rainy and winter season and diminishes in summer season under all future scenarios. Based on the seasonal temperature changes analysis for all stations, the future temperature are predicted to steadily increase with higher rates during summer than the other two seasons and it can also be concluded that the monthly minimum temperature rise is a bit larger than the maximum temperature rise in all seasons.

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Future Climate Change Renders Unsuitable Conditions for Paramo Ecosystems in Colombia

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12208373 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (20) ◽

pp. 8373

Author(s):

Matilda Cresso ◽

Nicola Clerici ◽

Adriana Sanchez ◽

Fernando Jaramillo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Dry Season ◽

Capital City ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Mountain Range ◽

Wet Season ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Future

Paramo ecosystems are tropical alpine grasslands, located above 3000 m.a.s.l. in the Andean mountain range. Their unique vegetation and soil characteristics, in combination with low temperature and abundant precipitation, create the most advantageous conditions for regulating and storing surface and groundwater. However, increasing temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation due to greenhouse-gas-emission climate change are threatening these fragile environments. In this study, we used regional observations and downscaled data for precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature during the reference period 1960–1990 and simulations for the future period 2041–2060 to study the present and future extents of paramo ecosystems in the Chingaza National Park (CNP), nearby Colombia’s capital city, Bogotá. The historical data were used for establishing upper and lower precipitation and temperature boundaries to determine the locations where paramo ecosystems currently thrive. Our results found that increasing mean monthly temperatures and changing precipitation will render 39 to 52% of the current paramo extent in CNP unsuitable for these ecosystems during the dry season, and 13 to 34% during the wet season. The greatest loss of paramo area will occur during the dry season and for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5, when both temperature and precipitation boundaries are more prone to be exceeded. Although our initial estimates show the future impact on paramos and the water security of Bogotá due to climate change, complex internal and external interactions in paramo ecosystems make it essential to study other influencing climatic parameters (e.g., soil, topography, wind, etc.) apart from temperature and precipitation.

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Spatial and Temporal Variations of Potential Evapotranspiration in the Loess Plateau of China During 1960–2017

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12010354 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 354 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Congjian Sun ◽

Zhenjing Zheng ◽

Wei Chen ◽

Yuyang Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Loess Plateau ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Chinese Loess Plateau ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Strong Positive Correlation ◽

The Loess Plateau

Potential evapotranspiration (ET0) is an integral component of the hydrological cycle and the global energy balance, and its long-term variation is of much concern in climate change studies. The Loess Plateau is an important area of agricultural civilization and water resources research. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution processes and influential parameters of ET0 at 70 stations in different topographical areas of the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). Using the Mann–Kendall trend, Cross wavelet transform, and the ArcGIS platform, the ET0 of each station was quantified using the Penman–Monteith equation, and the effects of climatic factors on ET0 were assessed by analyzing the correlation coefficients and contribution rates of the climatic factors. The results showed that: (1) the overall trend of the ET0 in different terrains of the Loess Plateau is consistent, however, the ET0 values differ; the hill region (HR) has the highest ET0, followed by the valley region (VR), and the mountain region (MR) has the lowest, and ET0 changes differ between seasons. (2) Spatial distribution characteristics of multiyear mean ET0 in the study are as follows: the ET0 values in mountain and hilly areas are decreasing from west to east, and the higher mean annual ET0 value in the VR is mainly concentrated in the eastern CLP. (3) In the past 58 years, the annual mean and the seasonal ET0 of the region showed increasing trends, however, differences in different terrains were obvious. (4) ET0 has significant correlations with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific–North American teleconnection (PNA), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The resonance period of ET0 and ENSO was 3–6 a, mainly in 1976–1985. The mean coherence phase angle was close to 360°, indicating that ET0 lags behind PNA by approximately 2–6 a; ET0 has a very strong positive correlation with AMO. (5) Relative humidity (RH) is the main influencing factor of ET0 change in the Loess Plateau. Temperature (T) variation has the highest contribution rate (42%) to the regional ET0 variation in the entire CLP. We should pay more attention to the variation of evaporation under future climate change, especially temperature change.

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Climatic factors influencing New Zealand pasture resilience under scenarios of future climate change

NZGA: Research and Practice Series ◽

10.33584/rps.17.2021.3458 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 17 ◽

Author(s):

Elizabeth Keller ◽

Mark Lieffering ◽

Jing Guo ◽

W Troy Baisden ◽

Anne-Gaelle Ausseil

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

New Zealand ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Early Spring ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Fertilization Effect ◽

Intensively Managed ◽

Growing Conditions ◽

Grazing Livestock

New Zealand’s intensively managed pastoral agricultural systems are vulnerable to climate change because of their dependence on grazing livestock and pasture as the primary feed supply. Drawing from recent modelling results, annual pasture yields in New Zealand are projected to be robust to a changing climate due to more favourable growing conditions in winter and early spring and increased plant efficiencies from the CO2 fertilization effect. However, growth is also expected to become more variable and unpredictable, particularly in water-limited regions. A combination of short-term, incremental changes (already part of current practice) and longer-term strategic interventions will be necessary to maintain consistent feed supply under future climate change.

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