scholarly journals Probable Dates of Flex, Substantial Reduction in the Number of COVID–19 Positive Confirmed Cases and Fatalities in the State of Maharashtra (India)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. L .ARORA
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Error Function ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Second Derivative ◽  
Expected Values ◽  
The Government ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
The City ◽  
Sufficient Reduction

Abstract In this paper, we analyse the COVID-19 data of the number of confirmed positive infectious COVID-19 cases (I) in Maharashtra, the second most populous state of India, having a population of nearly 123 million – more than the population of most of the European countries. For this analysis, we use COVID-19 data for the period from April 1, 2020 to August 24, 2020 to find the flex in the I - t curve, where the second derivative of the curve becomes negative. i.e. the date from which the rate of growth of the number of infections starts decreasing – or a peak occurs in the daily new COVID – 19 positive cases. Here I is the total number of cumulative COVID-19 positive cases and t is the time (in days). The observed data are fitted by employing the Gauss error function formulaa + b erf(cx - d),(with four adjustable arbitrary parameters a, b, c, and d) following the prescriptions adopted by Ciufolini and Paolozzi [1] for the analysis of the COVID-19 data from Italy and China. The date of flex is found using data from April 1 to August 11, then the data from April 1 to August 12, and so on, till the data from April 1 to August 24. There is a variation in the dates of flex for these 14 sets of data; however, the date of flex converges to a definite date towards the later sets. We also calculate the standard deviation of these values to calculate the uncertainty in the expected date of flex. Using these parameter values, we also calculate the expected values of COVID–19 positive cases for future. From this data, we estimate the date(s) at which there is sufficient reduction in the number of new daily positive cases and the number of such cases are likely to increase by say, 1000.The data for the number of fatalities in the city is also fitted to a Gauss error function with four parameters of the above type and we estimate in this case also, the date of flex as well as the dates at which the number of fatalities reduces in proportion to sufficient reduction in the number of new COVID-19 cases, which in this case is approximately 34 (for 1000 new infections). The data for the above analysis has been taken from the website covid19India.org and Aarogya Setu App [2] of the Government of India.

scholarly journals Prediction of the Date of Flex and of the Date of Substantial Reduction in the Number of COVID – 19 Confirmed Cases and Fatalities in Delhi (India)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. L .ARORA
Keyword(s):  
Function Method ◽  
Error Function ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Second Derivative ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
The Government ◽  
The City ◽  
Sufficient Reduction

Abstract In this paper, we analyse the covidCovid-19 data of the number of confirmed positive infectious cases (I) in Delhi - the capital of India – a city with a population of nearly 20 million - from April 1, 2020 to July 27th 2020 to find the flex in the I-t curve, where the second derivative of the I - t curve becomes negative. i.e. the date from which the rate of growth of the number of infections starts decreasing. The data isare fitted to the Gauss error function formulaa + b erf(cx-d)with four parameters a, b, c and d as was done by Ciufolini and Paolozzi [1] for analysis of the covid-19 data of Italy and China. The date of flex is also found by plotting the second derivative of I evaluated numerically and agrees with the date found by the Gauss error function method. We also determinedetermined the date at which the number of new daily infections iswas sufficiently reduced to aboutapproximately 100. An estimate of the number of future cases is calculated using the Gauss error function. The data for the number of fatalities in the city isare also fitted to the Gauss error function with four parameters, and we estimate the date at which the number of fatalities reduces in proportion to a sufficient reduction in the number of new Covid-19 cases, which in this case is approximately 3. The data for the analysis hashave been taken from the website covid19India.org and Aarogya Setu App [6] of the Government of India.

О КАЛИБРОВКЕ АВТОНОМНОЙ МОДЕЛИ ТУНДРОВОЙ БИОЛОГИЧЕСКОЙ ПОПУЛЯЦИИ ЛЕММИНГОВ

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (6) ◽  
pp. 1184-1195
Author(s):  
Г.К. Каменев ◽  
◽  
Д.А. Саранча ◽  
В.О. Поляновский ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Error Function ◽  
Model Identification ◽  
Taimyr Peninsula ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Identification Criterion ◽  
Identification Sets Method ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Unimodal Mappings

The paper presents an autonomous model of the biological population of lemmings of a phenomenological type, designed in complex studies of tundra communities. In the model, the dynamics of a population is described through a difference equation relating the population in two neighboring years that depends on three parameters of the biological and ecological genesis. The combination of parameter values included in the equation under consideration determines a class of one-dimensional unimodal mappings of a dynamical system in which the bifurcation properties, asymptotics, and stability of trajectories were analytically and numerically studied. In this paper the main focus is made on model identification criterion. The method of identification sets is proposed to be used for calibration of the model. The identification sets method is based on the approximation and visualization of small-dimensional projections of a multidimensional graph of the error function given in the space of three environmental and two population parameters. This paper describes a case study of model identification using data on the tundra lemming population on the Taimyr Peninsula. It is shown that in this case two biological and ecological parameters allow for stable location distribution.

NASI BORANAN SEBAGAI DAYA TARIK WISATA KULINER LAMONGAN JAWA TIMUR

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (02) ◽  
pp. 123-138
Author(s):  
Dodik Prakoso Eko Hery Suwandojo
Keyword(s):  
Research Method ◽  
City Government ◽  
Scientific Article ◽  
Tourist Attraction ◽  
Good Potential ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The City ◽  
Interview Questionnaire

Culinary is one of the essential factors of tourism activities including Indonesiantourism. Lamongan City is also one of the cities that has several types of typical culinary which is an attraction for culinary connoisseurs, especially the local communities or domestic tourists from other cities. This culinary is called Boranan rice or “sego Boranan”, which is authentic and only sold in Lamongan city. Therefore, the potential can be developed, introduced and become a special attraction for the tourists to come over Lamongan. The research method used in this scientific article is a descriptive qualitative research method using data collection techniques namely observation, interview, questionnaire, and documentation. The results of the study revealed that Boranan rice has a pretty good potential to be a culinary tourist attraction for the city of Lamongan. In addition, the promotion carried out by the Lamongan city government through the Lamongan city disparbud has also been done quite well. However, good cooperation is still needed between the government and the sellers of Boranan rice, therefore the marketing and preservation of Boranan rice can run well in the future.  Keywords: culinary tourism, destination attraction, east java, boranan rice

Analysis of Myocardial Time-Activity Curves of 123l-Heptadecanoic Acid II. The Acquisition Time

1987 ◽  
Vol 26 (06) ◽  
pp. 248-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. van Eenige ◽  
F. C. Visser ◽  
A. J. P. Karreman ◽  
C. M. B. Duwel ◽  
G. Westera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Acquisition Time ◽  
Half Time ◽  
Constant Ratio ◽  
Time Activity ◽  
Time Activity Curve ◽  
Time Value ◽  
Activity Curve ◽  
Low Amplitude ◽  
Parameter Values

Optimal fitting of a myocardial time-activity curve is accomplished with a monoexponential plus a constant, resulting in three parameters: amplitude and half-time of the monoexponential and the constant. The aim of this study was to estimate the precision of the calculated parameters. The variability of the parameter values as a function of the acquisition time was studied in 11 patients with cardiac complaints. Of the three parameters the half-time value varied most strongly with the acquisition time. An acquisition time of 80 min was needed to keep the standard deviation of the half-time value within ±10%. To estimate the standard deviation of the half-time value as a function of the parameter values, of the noise content of the time-activity curve and of the acquisition time, a model experiment was used. In most cases the SD decreased by 50% if the acquisition time was increased from 60 to 90 min. A low amplitude/constant ratio and a high half-time value result in a high SD of the half-time value. Tables are presented to estimate the SD in a particular case.

PENERAPAN METODE PROTOTYPING PADA PERANCANGAN APLIKASI SPPD KPPN MEDAN II BERBASIS WEBSITE

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-19
Author(s):  
Crystal Jelita Lumban Tobing
Keyword(s):  
Time Saving ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Government Organization ◽  
Manual Method ◽  
Microsoft Word ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
The Government ◽  
The City ◽  
Employee Data ◽  
The Web

 KPPN Medan II is one of the government organization units at the Ministry of Finance. Where leaders and employees who work at KPPN Medan II always carry out official trips between cities and outside the city. With these conditions, making SPPD documents experiencing the intensity of official travel activities carried out by employees of KPPN Medan II can be said frequently. So that in making SPPD in KPPN Medan II is still using the manual method that is recording through Microsoft Word which in the sense is less effective and efficient. In naming employees who get official assignments, officers manually entering employee data that receives official travel letters are prone to being lost because data is manually written. The web-based SPPD application is built by applying this prototyping method which is expected to facilitate SPPD KPPN Medan II management officers in making SPPD that is effective, efficient, accurate, time-saving, and not prone to losing SPPD data of KPPN Medan II employees who will has made official trips due to the existence of a special database to accommodate all SPPD files.

MAKING IT GREEN: THE FOOD PACKAGING PERCEPTIONS AND PRACTICES OF YOUNG CONSUMERS

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Norsyamira Shahrin ◽  
Rabiatul Adawiyah Abd Rahman ◽  
Noorliza Zainol ◽  
Noor Saliza Salmi ◽  
Mohd Faisal Abdul Wahab
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Food Packaging ◽  
Food Handler ◽  
Polystyrene Foam ◽  
University Of Technology ◽  
Young Consumers ◽  
Plastic Bag ◽  
The Government ◽  
The University

Food handler still fails to play their part even when the government imposes “No Plastic Bag” campaign and a ban on polystyrene foam to pack foods. This research focuses on eco-friendly food packaging based on the perception and practice of young consumers, especially the undergraduates of Mara University of Technology Penang Campus (UiTMPP). Questionnaire was constructed and distributed to 315 respondents.  The collected data were analyzed with simple descriptive statistic of frequency, mean and standard deviation. Most of the respondents are aware on eco-friendlyfood packaging. They agreed that the university should propose some alternative to control and reduce non-biodegradable foods packaging. 

Motivations and attitudes toward domestic tourism in Saudi Arabia

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-37
Author(s):  
Mourad Mansour ◽  
Alhassan G Mumuni
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Local Environment ◽  
Domestic Environment ◽  
Domestic Tourism ◽  
Tourism Destinations ◽  
Tourism Information ◽  
The Government ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Tourism Organization ◽  
Self Administered Questionnaire

AbstractBeginning with the establishment of a Supreme Commission for Tourism and Antiquities’ (SCTA) in 2000, there have been official attempts by the government of Saudi Arabia to encourage domestic tourism in order to tap into the huge amounts that Saudis spend annually on vacations. This paper examines the motivations and attitudes of consumers toward tourism destinations and activities within the country (domestic tourism). Using data collected through a structured self-administered questionnaire, the study finds that familiarity and trust of the local environment, perceptions of the safer domestic environment, and limitations imposed by respondents’ vacation timing are the primary motives for choosing to spend their vacations locally, while lack of quality domestic tourist sites and services (including entertainment facilities), lack of tourism information, insufficient tourism organization services, and the harsh local environmental conditions during summer are factors that ‘push’ people from spending the vacations locally. Attitudes toward domestic tourism are generally negative, although there are significant differences in attitudes between respondents who prefer domestic destinations and those who prefer to travel out of Kingdom. Implications of the findings are outlined and discussed.

On the sensibility of the Pairs Trading strategy: the case of the FTS stock market index

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ainhoa Fernández-Pérez ◽  
María de las Nieves López-García ◽  
José Pedro Ramos Requena
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Pairs Trading ◽  
Empirical Application ◽  
Statistical Arbitrage ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Standard Deviations ◽  
Using Data

In this paper we present a non-conventional statistical arbitrage technique based in varying the number of standard deviations used to carry the trading strategy. We will show how values of 1 and 1,2 in the standard deviation provide better results that the classic strategy of Gatev et al (2006). An empirical application is performance using data of the FST100 index during the period 2010 to June 2019.

Peranan Ketua Pengurus dan Manajer Dalam Penyusunan dan Penerapan Laporan Keuangan Berbasis SAK ETAP Pada Koperasi di Kota Palembang

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Riza Syahputera ◽  
Martha Rianty
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Regression Test ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The City ◽  
Positive Effect

AbstractThis study aims to determine the effect of the role of the Chairperson and Cooperative Manager in the preparation and application of Financial Statements based on SAK ETAP in cooperatives in the city of Palembang. This research is a quantitative study using data obtained from questionnaires and measured using a Likert scale. The sampling technique used is purposive sampling. The sample used in this study was the Chairperson of the cooperative and the manager of the cooperative in the city of Palembang. The cooperatives studied were 203 cooperatives. The data analysis technique used is multiple linear regression test. The results showed that the role of cooperative leaders and managers had a significant positive effect on the preparation and application of SAK ETAP-based financial statements.Keywords : chairman, manager, SAK ETAP, cooperative

IMPLEMENTASI ALGORITMA K-Modes UNTUK MENENTUKAN STRATEGI MARKETING STMIK BUDI DARMA

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewin Karman Nduru ◽  
Efori Buulolo ◽  
Pristiwanto Pristiwanto
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
High School Students ◽  
Marketing Strategy ◽  
Process Data ◽  
School Students ◽  
The North ◽  
The Government ◽  
Using Data ◽  
North Sumatra

Universities or institutions that operate in North Sumatra are very many, therefore, of course, competition in accepting new students is very tight, universities or institutions do certain ways or steps to be able to compete with other campuses in gaining interest from community or high school students who will continue their studies to a higher level. STMIK BUDI DARMA Medan (College of Information and Computer Management), is the first computer high school in Medan which was established on March 1, 1996 and received approval from the government through the Minister of Education and Culture, on July 23, 1996 with operating license number 48 / D / O / 1996, in promoting the campus, the team usually formed a promotion team to various regions in the North Sumatra Region to provide information to the community. Students who have learned in this campus are quite a lot who come from various regions in North Sumatra, from this point the need to process data from students who are active in college to be processed using data mining to achieve a target, one method that can be used in data mining, namely the ¬K-Modes clustering (grouping) algorithm. This method is a grouping of student data that will be a help to campus students in promoting, using the K-Modes algorithm is expected to help and become a reference for marketing in determining the marketing strategy STMIK Budi Darma MedanKeywords: STMIK Budi Darma, Marketing Strategy, K-Modes Algorithm.

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