scholarly journals The Use of Extraneous Information in the Development of a Policy Simulation Model

1973 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 167-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daryll E. Ray
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Policy Simulation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Extraneous Information ◽  
Aggregated Model ◽  
The Impact

A number of highly aggregated policy simulation models have been developed for the U.S. agricultural sector. While these models are useful in providing broad-stroke sketches of the effects of alternative farm policies, they have been criticized for their lack of commodity detail. Individuals, organizations and congressmen from a cattle producing state, as an example, are more interested in the impact of a changed agricultural policy on cattle prices and incomes than its effect on the income of all farmers. The reason most often given for not disaggregating by commodity groups is the researcher's reluctance to quantify opportunities for substitution among commodities in production and consumption. However, there may be more agreement on the relative magnitudes of supply and demand elasticities for individual commodities than the price elasticities of supply and demand for all farm output. Hence, a disaggregated model may distort reality much less than a highly aggregated model and at the same time provide detail on indirect effects of proposed policies that is so often sought by policy makers.

scholarly journals Agricultural policy analysis with the AGMEMOD model: A new super model takes the stage?

2006 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Csaba Jansik ◽  
Lauri Kettunen ◽  
Heikki Lehtonen ◽  
Jyrki Niemi
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The Other ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Agenda 2000 ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

This paper presents an econometric, recursive dynamic, partial equilibrium multi-commodity model for the Finnish agricultural sector developed within the AG-MEMOD modelling framework, a joint endeavour by several European research institutes. The objective of the AGMEMOD project is to build and validate an econometric model of the whole EU agricultural sector for projection and policy simulation purposes. The building blocks of the AGMEMOD model are the national policy models. The specific aim of the Finnish modelling project was to build a country model on a common format so that it would link-up to provide an integrated model for the whole EU. The different commodities in the model are linked together through cross-price effects in supply and demand equations and the price transmission equations that link domestic prices with EU prices. The responsiveness of the model to policy changes is demonstrated by comparing the results of different policy scenarios with that of the baseline scenario, i.e. continuation of the Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The policy scenario examined in the paper is the CAP reform approved at the EU Agricultural Council in Luxembourg in 2003. The main impacts of the CAP reform in Finland can be summarised as follows. Changes in crop sector are moderate. As regards to milk, the results indicate that the additional 10 percent cut in intervention price of butter beyond the Agenda 2000 agreement is estimated to reduce milk producer price by 4 percent and total milk production by 6 percent relative to the baseline. The impact in the beef production is expected to be dominated by the developments on the dairy sector. Beef output will decline progressively to stand at around 6 percent below the baseline levels by 2010. Lower beef availability in the EU will trigger a rise in EU producer prices of some 6.5 percent and result a 3 percent higher producer price in Finland at the end of the simulation period compared to the baseline. Though the broad patterns of reactions to agricultural policy reform are fairly predictable, the specific details are not so. In particular, when several geographic markets simultaneously change the policy, the impact of policy reform depends not only on domestic price elasticities, but also on the transmission of domestic production and consumption adjustments to the other countries’ markets for that commodity, and the feedback effects between market prices and production and consumption decisions in the group of countries pursuing policy reform. It is also highly promising that the findings are consistent with the other studies on the impacts of CAP reform on Finnish agriculture. Thus although there remains substantial scope for further research on the model (improving the estimation and specification of the sub-models), the model offers considerable potential for application even without additional development.

Markets for Purchased Farm Inputs

2005 ◽  
pp. 60-71
Author(s):  
E. Serova ◽  
O. Shick
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Financial Constraints ◽  
Information Sources ◽  
Animal Feed ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Market Institutions ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Government Organizations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Farm Inputs

Russian policy makers argue that agriculture suffers from decapitalization due to financial constraints faced by producers. This view is the basis for the national agricultural policy, which emphasizes reimbursement of input costs and substitutes government and quasi-government organizations for missing market institutions. The article evaluates the availability of purchased farm inputs, the efficiency of their use, the main problems in the emergence of market institutions, and the impact of government policies. The analysis focuses on five groups of purchased inputs: farm machinery, fertilizers, fuel, seeds, and animal feed. The information sources include official statistics and data from two original surveys.

scholarly journals Generational Changes in Agriculture: The Influence of Farm Characteristics and Socio-Economic Factors

Agriculture ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wojciech Sroka ◽  
Michał Dudek ◽  
Tomasz Wojewodzic ◽  
Karol Król
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Endogenous Factors ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Generational Changes ◽  
Exogenous Factors ◽  
The Impact

The increasing importance of large cities (metropolises) poses a range of challenges to the socio-economic functions of the rural and agricultural areas around them. One such challenge is pressure exerted on family-run farms to abandon agricultural activity and on people engaged in such activity to shift to other sectors. This may be a hindrance to successful succession on family farms. The aim of this paper is to present spatial variation in generational changes in farms located around large cities (metropolises) in Poland and to assess the factors affecting the scale of such changes. Special attention was paid to the importance of the location of farms relative to large cities. One innovative feature of the approach presented was to conduct an analysis of generational changes in the agricultural sector at the supra-local level along with an attempt to quantify the impact of large urban centers on that process. The empirical material based on which the conclusions were formulated included official statistics data and information made available by an institution engaged in the implementation of agricultural policy programs financed from European Union (EU) funds, i.e., young farmer payments (Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) pillar I) and measures “Setting up of young farmers” and “Early retirement” (CAP Pillar II). In the executed study, methods of descriptive and multivariate statistics, including regression trees, were used. It was found that socio-economic (exogenous) factors had a significant statistical impact on generational changes in farms. In areas with an attractive labor market and a high level of urbanization, a successful generational shift in farms occurred less often. Nonetheless, generational changes in the agriculture of the analyzed areas were relatively most strongly determined by endogenous factors linked with the economic potential of the farm. Farm characteristics (area of agricultural land and economic size) and the characteristics of managers, including in particular their education, were found to be more important than exogenous factors. In areas where large and economically strong farms dominated and the level of education among farmers was relatively high, generational changes were faster compared to other areas.

scholarly journals What Drives Norm Success? Evidence from Anti–Fossil Fuel Campaigns

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 63-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathieu Blondeel ◽  
Jeff Colgan ◽  
Thijs Van de Graaf
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Fuel Production ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
Fossil Fuel Subsidies ◽  
Environmental Goals ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Subsidy Reform

Why do some international norms succeed, whereas others fail? We argue that norm campaigns are more likely to succeed when the actions they prescribe are framed as a solution to salient problems that potential adopters face, even if different from the problem that originally motivated norm entrepreneurs. For instance, the campaign to reduce environmentally harmful fossil fuel subsidies has been more effective when linked to fiscal stability, a common problem that policy makers face. Problem linkages can thus bolster the attractiveness of a proposed new norm and broaden the coalition of actors that support the norm. We probe the plausibility of this argument by studying two campaigns that aim to shift patterns of finance for fossil fuel production and consumption: subsidy reform and divestment. Subsidy reform encourages governments to reduce subsidies for products like gasoline; divestment encourages investors to sell or avoid equity stocks from fossil fuel industries. We look at the variation in the impact of these two campaigns over time and argue that they have achieved institutional acceptance and implementation chiefly when their advocates have been able to link environmental goals with other goals, usually economic ones.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on European agricultural policy

European View ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole M. Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Raising Awareness ◽  
Combat Climate Change ◽  
Warming World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Principal Contributor ◽  
The Eu

Agriculture in the context of climate change is often a provocative subject because agriculture is both heavily impacted by the warming world and also a principal contributor to climate change. As efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions increase, the EU is pushing all sectors to integrate measures to combat climate change. This article argues that the agricultural sector has instigated a process of integrating climate concerns. However, these efforts will not lead to a large number of disruptive changes in the agricultural sector. While the EU is putting climate change firmly on the agricultural agenda, ranking the issue even higher than the environment, the Union’s primary goal is still to support the income of farmers. Hence, the EU’s intentions will likely lead to raising awareness of the issue of climate change in the context of agriculture but will not lead to any transformative changes in European agricultural policymaking.

The Outlook for World Meat Supply and Demand

1998 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-22
Author(s):  
Loek Boonekamp
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Policy Research ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
The Us ◽  
Food And Agricultural Policy ◽  
Broad Outline

This paper presents a medium-term outlook for world meat supply and demand. Following a broad outline of likely developments in production and consumption of all meats, the focus engages on the outlook for world beef markets over the five-year period from 1997. The projections presented in this paper are based largely on those published by the OECD. So far as non-OECD countries are concerned, the main sources of information have been the Economic Research Service of the US Department for Agriculture and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute of the Universities of Iowa State and Missouri, Columbia.

scholarly journals Socio-Geographical Concept of Labor Market Monitoring and Regional Employment Policy Formation

2021 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
pp. 05013
Author(s):  
Kateryna Butkaliuk ◽  
Valentyna Shchabelska ◽  
Mariia Bykova ◽  
Iuliia Pologovska
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Policy Formation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Employment Policy ◽  
Regional Employment ◽  
Market Monitoring ◽  
The Impact

The necessity of socio-geographical concept elaboration and implementation for labor market monitoring and regional employment policy formation is grounded from the socio-geographical point of view. It has been established that: 1) the versatility and complex nature of the labor market development specificated by natural and socio-economic factors of important geographical content has determined its socio-geographical essence; 2) the development of the concept requires different approaches, principles and research methods, including socio-geographical, taking into account various labor market factors; 3)the concept should take into account the influence of the laws of the production and human settlement territorial organisation, as well as the level of development and structure of the region's economy; 4)the concept should take into account the peculiarities of the labor market formation and development in the economic system agricultural sector as well as the impact of current risks and challenges on the social and labor sphere of public life; 5) the implementation of such a concept has to provide the balancing of labor supply and demand within the country and its regions; 6)regional employment policy should be aimed at rational use of the territory labor potential.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Water Scarcity in Selected Countries of the Middle East

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petr Procházka ◽  
Vladimír Hönig ◽  
Mansoor Maitah ◽  
Ivana Pljučarská ◽  
Jakub Kleindienst
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
High Water ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
The Impact

The primary goal of this article is to evaluate water scarcity in selected countries of the Middle-East and assess the impact on agricultural production. To begin with, the Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipitation (WASP) Index from 1979 to 2017 was spatially computed for Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In order to demonstrate the effect of reduced levels of water, the water shortage situation in cities with the population higher than one million was examined. This was accomplished by utilizing the Composite Index approach to make water related statistics more intelligible. A projection for the years of 2020 to 2030 was created in order to demonstrate possible changes in the supply and demand for water in selected countries of the Middle-East. In regards to evaluating the economic effects of water shortages on agricultural sector, effects of lower precipitation on agricultural production in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia were estimated. With ever-increasing urbanization, all countries are currently experiencing a moderate to high water risk. Our research points to excessively high water stress for most analyzed cities through the year 2030. Also, it is demonstrated how much precipitation decreases influence agricultural production in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. From the analyzed countries, some evidence is found that precipitation negatively influences crop production, primarily for Iran.

scholarly journals Baltic Sea eutrophication status is not improved by the first pillar of the European Union Common Agricultural Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 2465-2476
Author(s):  
Torbjörn Jansson ◽  
Hans E. Andersen ◽  
Bo G. Gustafsson ◽  
Berit Hasler ◽  
Lisa Höglind ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Common Agricultural Policy ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Fertiliser Use ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract Agriculture is an important source of nitrogen and phosphorous loads to the Baltic Sea. We study how the European Union’s (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and in particular how its first pillar, containing most of the budget and the decoupled farm payments, affects eutrophication. To aid our study, we use three simulation models, covering the agricultural sector in the EU, a hydrological nutrient flow model and a model of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. We compute changes in key eutrophication indicators in a business-as-usual baseline and in a hypothetical situation where the first pillar of the CAP, containing the direct payments, greening and accompanying measures, is not present. Comparing the outcomes, we find that in the scenario without the first pillar, production and agricultural land use is lower, while yields and fertiliser use per hectare are higher, causing less nitrogen and phosphorous loads (0.5 to 4% depending on the basin) and less eutrophication in the Baltic Sea as net effect. We therefore conclude that the policies of the first pillar of the CAP contribute to increased eutrophication in the Baltic Sea.

scholarly journals An evaluation of permanent crops: Evidence from the “Plant the Future” project, Georgia

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 212-222
Author(s):  
Lasha Zivzivadze ◽  
Tengiz Taktakishvili ◽  
Ekaterine Zviadadze ◽  
Giorgi Machavariani
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
High Demand ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Project

Abstract Promoting investments in permanent crops is often considered by the government as a powerful measure to support long-term growth in agriculture. The same attitude is prevalent among agricultural policy makers in Georgia and hence, country’s government and the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture of Georgia initiate and coordinate projects facilitating new investments in permanent crops. The article deals with an evaluation of an impact of “Plant the Future” project in Georgia that provides funds for the potential beneficiaries for planting permanent crops. The structure and scope of the project are discussed in the article, and the relevant data regarding the area planted, financial impact, and beneficiaries for the period from 2015 to 2019 are analysed and the impact projection is made for the period of 2020–2043. Research showed that the target indicators of the project were fully achieved. In addition, there were a high demand from farmers to participate in this project and as a result, the budget spent in 2017–2019 exceeded the planned budget. The project appears to be beneficial in terms of net present values that are positive for all discussed discount rates, meaning that the benefits of the project are greater than costs. The return on investment of the project is around 10%, which is greater than the basic discount rate (8%). Social impact also seems to be high with 1,350 beneficiaries. According to the projection, from 2015 to 2024, around 3,000 beneficiaries will benefit from this project. In the methodology, five evaluation criteria are used, namely, relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability. Based on the evaluation, specific recommendations are given.

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