scholarly journals Control of COVID-19 outbreak using an extended SEIR model

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Sean T. McQuade ◽  
Ryan Weightman ◽  
Nathaniel J. Merrill ◽  
Aayush Yadav ◽  
Emmanuel Trélat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
High Death ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Cost

The outbreak of COVID-19 resulted in high death tolls all over the world. The aim of this paper is to show how a simple SEIR model was used to make quick predictions for New Jersey in early March 2020 and call for action based on data from China and Italy. A more refined model, which accounts for social distancing, testing, contact tracing and quarantining, is then proposed to identify containment measures to minimize the economic cost of the pandemic. The latter is obtained taking into account all the involved costs including reduced economic activities due to lockdown and quarantining as well as the cost for hospitalization and deaths. The proposed model allows one to find optimal strategies as combinations of implementing various non-pharmaceutical interventions and study different scenarios and likely initial conditions.

scholarly journals An SEIR Model with Contact Tracing and Age-Structured Social Mixing for COVID-19 outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Teimouri
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Expectation Value ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
The World ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
And Control ◽  
Explicit Relation

AbstractIn December 2019 a severe acute respiratory syndrome now known as SARS-CoV-2 began to surge in Wuhan, China. The virus soon spread throughout the world to become a pandemic. Since the outbreak various measures were put in place to contain and control the spread, these interventions were mostly based on compartmental models in epidemiology with the main goal of controlling and monitoring the rate of the basic and effective reproduction number. In this paper, we propose an SEIR model where we incorporate contact tracing and age-structured social mixing. We show the explicit relation between contact tracing and social mixing and other relevant parameters of the proposed model. We derive a formula for the effective reproduction number which is expressed in terms of reported cases, tracing quantities and social mixing. We use this formula to determine the expectation value of the effective reproduction number in London, UK.

scholarly journals Covid-19: analysis of a modified SEIR model, a comparison of different intervention strategies and projections for India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arghya Das ◽  
Abhishek Dhar ◽  
Srashti Goyal ◽  
Anupam Kundu
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Early Time ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Asymptomatic Carriers ◽  
Analytic Expressions ◽  
Model Equations

To understand the spread of Covid-19, we analyse an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model that accounts for asymptomatic carriers, and explore the effect of different intervention strategies such as social distancing (SD) and testing-quarantining (TQ). The two intervention strategies (SD and TQ) try to reduce the disease reproductive number, R0, to a target value , but in distinct ways, which we implement in our model equations. We find that for the same , TQ is more efficient in controlling the pandemic than SD. However, for TQ to be effective, it has to be based on contact tracing and our study quantifies the required ratio of tests-per-day to the number of new cases-per-day. Our analysis shows that the largest eigenvalue of the linearised dynamics provides a simple understanding of the disease progression, both pre- and post-intervention, and explains observed data for many countries. We propose an accurate way of specifying initial conditions for the numerics (from insufficient data) using the fact that the early time exponential growth is well-described by the dominant eigenvector of the linearized equations. Weak intervention strategies (that reduce R0 but not sufficiently) reduce the peak values of infections and the asymptotic affected population and we provide analytic expressions for these in terms of the disease parameters. We apply them in the Indian context to obtain heuristic projections for the course of the pandemic, noting that the predictions strongly depend on the assumed fraction of asymptomatic carriers.

TRANSFER FİYATLAMA UYGULAMASININ İŞLETME PERFORMANSINA ETKİSİ VE VERGİSEL AÇIDAN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 187
Author(s):  
Serdar KUZU
Keyword(s):  
Business Performance ◽  
Transfer Pricing ◽  
Tax Law ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Tax System ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Tax Legislation ◽  
International Transactions ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

The size of international trade continues to extend rapidly from day to day as a result of the globalization process. This situation causes an increase in the economic activities of businesses in the trading area. One of the main objectives of the cost system applied in businesses is to be able to monitor the competitors and the changes that can be occured as a result of the developments in the sector. Thus, making cost accounting that is proper according to IAS / IFRS and tax legislation has become one of the strategic targets of the companies in most countries. In this respect, businesses should form their cost and pricing systems according to new regulations. Transfer pricing practice is usefull in setting the most proper price for goods that are subject to the transaction, in evaluating the performance of the responsibility centers of business, and in determining if the inter-departmental pricing system is consistent with targets of the business. The taxing powers of different countries and also the taxing powers of different institutions in a country did not overlap. Because of this reason, bringing new regulations to the tax system has become essential. The transfer pricing practice that has been incorporated into the Turkish Tax System is one of the these regulations. The transfer pricing practice which includes national and international transactions has been included in the Corporate Tax Law and Income Tax Law. The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of goods and services transfer that will occur between departments of businesses on the responsibility center and business performance, and also the impact of transfer pricing practice on the business performance on the basis of tax-related matters. As a result of the study, it can be said that transfer pricing practice has an impact on business performance in terms of both price and tax-related matters.

Main approaches to estimating the cost of shareholder equity of oil and gas producers

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 685-697
Author(s):  
O.V. Shimko
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Minimum Cost ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Oil And Gas Producers ◽  
The Cost

Subject. The study analyzes generally accepted approaches to assessing the value of companies on the basis of financial statement data of ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, Anadarko Petroleum, EOG Resources, Apache, Marathon Oil, Imperial Oil, Suncor Energy, Husky Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, Royal Dutch Shell, Gazprom, Rosneft, LUKOIL, and others, for 1999—2018. Objectives. The aim is to determine the specifics of using the methods of cost, DFC, and comparative approaches to assessing the value of share capital of oil and gas companies. Methods. The study employs methods of statistical analysis and generalization of materials of scientific articles and official annual reports on the results of financial and economic activities of the largest public oil and gas corporations. Results. Based on the results of a comprehensive analysis, I identified advantages and disadvantages of standard approaches to assessing the value of oil and gas producers. Conclusions. The paper describes pros and cons of the said approaches. For instance, the cost approach is acceptable for assessing the minimum cost of small companies in the industry. The DFC-based approach complicates the reliability of medium-term forecasts for oil prices due to fluctuations in oil prices inherent in the industry, on which the net profit and free cash flow of companies depend to a large extent. The comparative approach enables to quickly determine the range of possible value of the corporation based on transactions data and current market situation.

The Cost of Being ‘Backward’ in India: Socio-religious Discrimination in the Labour Market

2021 ◽  
pp. 097370302110296
Author(s):  
Soumyajit Chakraborty ◽  
Alok K. Bohara
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
National Sample ◽  
Sample Survey ◽  
Religious Discrimination ◽  
Capital Endowment ◽  
Scheduled Castes ◽  
Sample Survey Data ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Human Capital Endowment

Being from backward castes, classes and Muslims in India has an economic cost associated with the nature of institutional discrimination. Using the 2011–2012 National Sample Survey data, this study identifies that caste and religion still rule the modern Indian labour market. We find that discrimination is evident in the socio-religious earnings gaps. While the parametric decompositions suggest that most of these gaps are due to differential human capital endowment, the nonparametric method almost evenly attributes inequality to discrimination and endowment. The results presented in this study suggest that discrimination against Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, Muslims and Other Backward Classes should be included in policy designs to promote equity in the Indian labour market.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Economic Viability of Agricultural Pellets to Supplement the Current Global Wood Pellets Supply for Bioenergy Production

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2263
Author(s):  
Mahmood Ebadian ◽  
Shahab Sokhansanj ◽  
David Lee ◽  
Alyssa Klein ◽  
Lawrence Townley-Smith
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Wood Pellets ◽  
Logistics System ◽  
Global Marketplace ◽  
Biomass Logistics ◽  
Production And Distribution ◽  
The Cost

In this study, an inter-continental agricultural pellet supply chain is modeled, and the production cost and price of agricultural pellets are estimated and compared against the recent cost and price of wood pellets in the global marketplace. The inter-continental supply chain is verified and validated using an integration of an interactive mapping application and a simulation platform. The integrated model is applied to a case study in which agricultural pellets are produced in six locations in Canada and shipped and discharged at the three major ports in Western Europe. The cost of agricultural pellets in the six locations is estimated to be in the range of EUR 92–95/tonne (CAD 138–142/tonne), which is comparable with the recent cost of wood pellets produced in small-scale pellet plants (EUR 99–109/tonne). The average agricultural pellet price shipped from the six plants to the three ports in Western Europe is estimated to be in a range of EUR 183–204 (CAD 274–305/tonne), 29–42% more expensive that the average recent price of wood pellets (EUR 143/tonne) at the same ports. There are several potential areas in the agricultural pellet supply chains that can reduce the pellet production and distribution costs in the mid and long terms, making them affordable supplement to the existing wood pellet markets. Potential economic activities generated by the production of pellets in farm communities can be significant. The generated annual revenue in the biomass logistics system in all six locations is estimated to be about CAD 21.80 million. In addition, the logistics equipment fleet needs 176 local operators with a potential annual income of CAD 2.18 million.

scholarly journals Uncovering two phases of early intercontinental COVID-19 transmission dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Yang ◽  
Juan Li ◽  
Shengjie Lai ◽  
Corrine W Ruktanonchai ◽  
Weijia Xing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phylogenetic Analyses ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Genetic Sequencing ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
The World ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Two Phases

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic has posed an ongoing global crisis, but how the virus spread across the world remains poorly understood. This is of vital importance for informing current and future pandemic response strategies. Methods We performed two independent analyses, travel network-based epidemiological modelling and Bayesian phylogeographic inference, to investigate the intercontinental spread of COVID-19. Results Both approaches revealed two distinct phases of COVID-19 spread by the end of March 2020. In the first phase, COVID-19 largely circulated in China during mid-to-late January 2020 and was interrupted by containment measures in China. In the second and predominant phase extending from late February to mid-March, unrestricted movements between countries outside of China facilitated intercontinental spread, with Europe as a major source. Phylogenetic analyses also revealed that the dominant strains circulating in the USA were introduced from Europe. However, stringent restrictions on international travel across the world since late March have substantially reduced intercontinental transmission. Conclusions Our analyses highlight that heterogeneities in international travel have shaped the spatiotemporal characteristics of the pandemic. Unrestricted travel caused a large number of COVID-19 exportations from Europe to other continents between late February and mid-March, which facilitated the COVID-19 pandemic. Targeted restrictions on international travel from countries with widespread community transmission, together with improved capacity in testing, genetic sequencing and contact tracing, can inform timely strategies for mitigating and containing ongoing and future waves of COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals A modified SEIR model to predict the behavior of the early stage in coronavirus and coronavirus-like outbreaks

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilfredo Angulo ◽  
José M. Ramírez ◽  
Dany De Cecchis ◽  
Juan Primera ◽  
Henry Pacheco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Structure ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Probable Site ◽  
Adjusted Model ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCOVID-19 is a highly infectious disease that emerged in China at the end of 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic is the first known pandemic caused by a coronavirus, namely, the new and emerging SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. In the present work, we present simulations of the initial outbreak of this new coronavirus using a modified transmission rate SEIR model that takes into account the impact of government actions and the perception of risk by individuals in reaction to the proportion of fatal cases. The parameters related to these effects were fitted to the number of infected cases in the 33 provinces of China. The data for Hubei Province, the probable site of origin of the current pandemic, were considered as a particular case for the simulation and showed that the theoretical model reproduces the behavior of the data, thus indicating the importance of combining government actions and individual risk perceptions when the proportion of fatal cases is greater than $$4\%$$ 4 % . The results show that the adjusted model reproduces the behavior of the data quite well for some provinces, suggesting that the spread of the disease differs when different actions are evaluated. The proposed model could help to predict outbreaks of viruses with a biological and molecular structure similar to that of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals A cost analysis to address issues of budget constraints on the implementation of the indoor residual spray programme in two districts of Maputo Province, Mozambique

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Neide Canana
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Cost Analysis ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Cost Information ◽  
Financial Cost ◽  
Provider Perspective ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Background It is frequently said that funding is essential to ensure optimal results from a malaria intervention control. However, in recent years, the capacity of the government of Mozambique to sustain the operational cost of indoor residual spraying (IRS) is facing numerous challenges due to restrictions of the Official Development Assistance. The purpose of the study was to estimate the cost of IRS operationalization in two districts of Maputo Province (Matutuíne and Namaacha) in Mozambique. The evidence produced in this study intends to provide decision-makers with insight into where they need to pay close attention in future planning in order to operationalize IRS with the existent budget in the actual context of budget restrictions. Methods Cost information was collected retrospectively from the provider perspective, and both economic and financial costs were calculated. A “one-way” deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed. Results The average economic costs totaled US$117,351.34, with an average economic cost per household sprayed of US$16.35, and an average economic cost per person protected of US$4.09. The average financial cost totaled US$69,174.83, with an average financial cost per household sprayed and per person protected of US$9.84 and US$2.46, respectively. Vehicle, salary, and insecticide costs were the greatest contributors to overall cost in the economic and financial analysis, corresponding to 52%, 17%, and 13% in the economic analysis and 21%, 27%, and 22% in the financial analysis, respectively. The sensitivity analysis was adapted to a range of ± (above and under) 25% change. There was an approximate change of 14% in the average economic cost when vehicle costs were decreased by 25%. In the financial analysis, the average financial cost was lowered by 7% when salary costs were decreased by 25%. Conclusions Altogether, the current cost analysis provides an impetus for the consideration of targeted IRS operationalization within the available governmental budget, by using locally-available human resources as spray operators to decrease costs and having IRS rounds be correctly timed to coincide with the build-up of vector populations.

At what cost is performance-based financing implemented? Novel evidence from Malawi

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 282-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela De Allegri ◽  
Chris Makwero ◽  
Aleksandra Torbica
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Personnel Cost ◽  
Cost Category ◽  
Implementation Phase ◽  
Personnel Costs ◽  
Performance Based Financing ◽  
Implementation Costs ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Low Income Setting

Abstract Our study estimated the full economic cost of implementing performance-based financing [PBF, the Support for Service Delivery Integration Performance-Based Incentives (SSDI-PBI) programme], as a means of first introducing strategic purchasing in a low-income setting, Malawi. Our analysis distinguished design from implementation costs and traces costs across personnel and non-personnel cost categories over the 2012–15 period. The full cost of the SSDI-PBI programme amounted to USD 3 402 187, equivalent to USD 6.46 per targeted beneficiary. The design phase accounted for about one-third (USD 1 161 332) of the total costs, while the incentives (USD 1 140 436) represented about one-third of the total cost of the intervention and about half the cost of the implementation phase. With a cost of USD 1 605 178, personnel costs represented the dominant cost category. Our study indicated that the introduction of PBF entailed consumption of a substantial amount of resources, hence representing an important opportunity cost for the health system.

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