2016 Presidential Statewide Polling—A Substandard Performance: A Proposal and Application for Evaluating Preelection Poll Accuracy

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (7) ◽  
pp. 768-788 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spencer Kimball
Keyword(s):  
Binomial Test ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Credibility Interval ◽  
Statistical Accuracy ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
Margin Of Error ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Substandard Performance

This study implements a statistical accuracy ( SA) measurement for assessing preelection poll accuracy by comparing Mosteller (1949) Method 5 (absolute difference between poll results and election results) with the poll’s margin of error (MOE) or credibility interval. The expectation is that 95% of poll results would be SA by falling between the poll’s margin of error or credibility interval and the actual margin of victory. The new measurement is described and then applied to the statewide preelection polls from the 2012 Presidential ( n = 331) and 2016 Presidential ( n = 539) races using n = 182 polling organizations in the last 21 days of each election cycle. This analysis finds statewide preelection polling in 2012 had a 94% SA and was not statistically different from the expected 95%, while the statewide polling in 2016 had a 77% SA and a binomial test found the distribution differs significantly from the expected 95%. There is a significant difference in SA between the two election cycles, χ2(1, N = 870) = 45.24, p < .000. The 2012 biased polls favored the Republican candidate 68% of the time; however, a binomial test found this distribution did not differ significantly from the expected 50/50 distribution, .50, p = .167 (two-tailed), suggesting this was caused by random error. In 2016, biased polls favored the Democratic candidate 90% of the time, a binomial test indicated that the proportion was higher than the expected .50, p < .000 (two- tailed), suggesting a systemic bias.

Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Treatment With Directly Acting Agents Reduces the Risk of Incident Diabetes: Results From Electronically Retrieved Cohort of HCV Infected Veterans (ERCHIVES)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeel A Butt ◽  
Peng Yan ◽  
Samia Aslam ◽  
Obaid S Shaikh ◽  
Abdul-Badi Abou-Samra
Keyword(s):  
Hepatitis C Virus ◽  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Pegylated Interferon ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Diabetes Incidence ◽  
Hcv Treatment ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Significant Difference

Abstract Background The effects of interferon-based therapies for hepatitis C virus (HCV) upon the risk of diabetes are controversial. The effects of newer, directly acting antiviral agents (DAA) upon this risk are unknown. We sought to determine the effects of HCV treatment upon the risk and incidence of diabetes. Methods Using the Electronically Retrieved Cohort of HCV Infected Veterans (ERCHIVES) database for persons with chronic HCV infection (n = 242 680), we identified those treated with a pegylated interferon and ribavirin regimen (PEG/RBV, n = 4764) or a DAA-containing regimen (n = 21 279), after excluding those with diabetes at baseline, those with a human immunodeficiency virus or hepatitis B virus coinfection, and those treated with both PEG/RBV and DAA regimens. Age-, race-, sex-, and propensity score–matched controls (1:1) were also identified. Results Diabetes incidence rates per 1000 person-years were 20.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 19.6–21.6) among untreated persons, 19.8 (95% CI 18.3–21.4) among those treated with PEG/RBV, and 9.89 (95% CI 8.7–11.1) among DAA-treated persons (P < .001). Among the treated, rates were 13.3 (95% CI 12.2–14.5) for those with a sustained virologic response (SVR) and 19.2 (95% CI 17.4–21.1) for those without an SVR (P < .0001). A larger reduction was observed in persons with more advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis (absolute difference 2.9 for fibrosis severity score [FIB-4] < 1.25; 5.7 for FIB-4 1.26–3.25; 9.8 for FIB-4 >3.25). DAA treatment (hazard ratio [HR] 0.53, 95% CI .46–.63) and SVR (HR 0.81, 95% CI .70–.93) were associated with a significantly reduced risk of diabetes. DAA-treated persons had longer diabetes-free survival rates, compared to untreated and PEG/RBV-treated persons. There was no significant difference in diabetes-free survival rates between untreated and PEG/RBV-treated persons. The results were similar in inverse probability of treatment and censoring weight models. Conclusions DAA therapy significantly reduces the incidence and risk of subsequent diabetes. Treatment benefits are more pronounced in persons with more advanced liver fibrosis.

10-yr follow-up results of NSABP B-32, a randomized phase III clinical trial to compare sentinel node resection (SNR) to conventional axillary dissection (AD) in clinically node-negative breast cancer patients.

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1000-1000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas B. Julian ◽  
Stewart J. Anderson ◽  
David N. Krag ◽  
Seth P. Harlow ◽  
Joseph P. Costantino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Disease Free Survival ◽  
Outcome Data ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Breast Cancer Patients ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
M Estimates

1000 Background: NSABP B-32, the largest surgical prospective randomized phase III trial was designed to compare overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and morbidity between SNR alone vs SNR + AD in SN negative (-) pts. We present 10 yr outcome data for primary endpoints as well as updated data on the effect of occult metastases, found later in the SN by central, detailed pathologic analysis. Methods: 5,611 women with operable, clinically N0, invasive breast cancer were randomized to SNR + AD (Group [Grp] 1) or to SNR alone with AD only if SNs were positive (Grp2). 3,989 (71.1%) of 5,611 pts were SN-. 3,986 (99.9%) of these SN- pts had follow-up information: Grp 1: 1,975, Grp 2:2,011. Median time on study was 9.4 yrs. Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for study stratification variables were used to compare OS and DFS between the two groups. Two-sided p values were used. HR values > 1 indicate a more favorable outcome in Grp 1 Results: At 10 yrs, there continues to be no significant difference in OS between the two groups (HR: 1.11, p = 0.27). 10 yr Kaplan-Meier (K-M) estimates for OS are 87.8% for SNR alone and 88.9% for SNR + AD. There continues to be no significant difference in DFS between the two groups (HR: 1.01, p=0.92). 10-yr K-M estimates for DFS were 76.9% for both groups. Occult nodal disease was originally detected in 3,884 pts (15.8%) with SN- on initial H and E analysis. Comparisons between the groups with and without occult disease yielded an adjusted HR for OS: 1.25 (p = 0.08) with an absolute difference at 10 yrs of 2.8% and a HR for DFS: 1.24 (p = 0.018) with an absolute difference of 4.1%. The cumulative incidences of local-regional events were low (10-yr values: SNR 4.0%, SNR+AD, 4.3%) and not significant (HR: 0.95, p = 0.77). Conclusions: At 10 yrs there continues to be no significant differences in OS and DFS between SNR and SNR + AD in pts with negative SN. The relative increase in risk of DFS and OS for pts with occult SN metastases remains stable. Support: PHS grants: NSABP: U10CA-12027, U10CA-37377, U10CA-69651, U10CA-69974; VT Ca Cntr: P30 CA22435; DNK: 5RO1CA074137 NCI Dpt HHS. Clinical trial information: NCT00003830.

Effect of vitamin D3 supplementation on relapses, disease progression, and measures of function in persons with multiple sclerosis: exploratory outcomes from a double-blind randomised controlled trial

2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 1144-1151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margitta T Kampman ◽  
Linn H Steffensen ◽  
Svein I Mellgren ◽  
Lone Jørgensen
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Vitamin D ◽  
Randomised Controlled Trial ◽  
Disease Progression ◽  
Grip Strength ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Mineral Density ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Randomised Controlled

Background: High vitamin D levels may reduce the risk of relapses and disease progression in multiple sclerosis. Methods: This 96-week randomised controlled trial was designed to assess the effect of vitamin D3 supplementation on bone mineral density in persons with multiple sclerosis. Supplementation with 20,000 IU vitamin D3 weekly raised median serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25[OH]D) to 121 nmol/L. The modified intention to treat analysis included 35 persons in the vitamin D3 group and 33 in the placebo group. Participants were age 21 to 50 years and fully ambulatory (median Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 2.5). We studied the effect of supplementing vitamin D3 on the exploratory outcomes annualised relapse rate (ARR), EDSS, multiple sclerosis functional composite (MSFC) components, grip strength, and fatigue. Results: After 96 weeks, there was no significant difference between groups in ARR (absolute difference 0.10, 95% CI -0.07 to 0.27; p = 0.25), EDSS (absolute difference -0.01, 95% CI -0.35 to 0.35; p = 0.97), MSFC components, grip strength, or fatigue. Conclusion: Supplementation with 20,000 IU vitamin D3 weekly did not result in beneficial effects on the measured multiple sclerosis-related outcomes. This study was not powered to address clinical outcomes, but none of the results were suggestive of an effect in this unselected population of fully ambulatory persons with multiple sclerosis.

scholarly journals Repeatability of Magnetic Resonance Measurements Used for Estimating Crohn’s Disease Activity

2020 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilze Apine ◽  
Ieva Pirksta ◽  
Reinis Pitura ◽  
Juris Pokrotnieks ◽  
Ieva Puķīte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Crohn’S Disease ◽  
Crohn's Disease ◽  
Disease Activity ◽  
Quantitative Estimation ◽  
Observer Agreement ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Terminal Ileitis ◽  
Apparent Diffusion Coefficients ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Crohn’S Disease Activity

AbstractThe MR activity indices used for quantification and follow-up of Crohn’s disease are composed of a number of subjectively determinable components with equivocal repeatability. The purpose of this article was to assess the repeatability of measurements used for quantitative estimation of Crohn’s disease activity in the terminal ileum. In five adults (23–57 y.o.) and 12 children (10–17 y.o.) with active terminal ileitis, the inflamed bowel was divided into 3 cm segments (n = 32 in adults, n = 46 in children), and measurements for the calculation of MaRIA and Clermont scores were performed. Parameters included apparent diffusion coefficients (ADC) for diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) sequences with selective and non-selective fat suppression, wall signal enhancement before (WSI-preGd) and after (WSI-preGd) gadolinium enhancement, bowel thickness, and presence of ulcers. The measurements were standardised (accurate site-to-site comparison, exact ROI size, where applicable) and repeated by the same researcher after two months. Intra-observer agreement for ADC, WSI-preGd and WSI-postGd, bowel thickness was assessed with a paired t-test, and the significant difference in presence/absence of ulcers was assessed by the Pearson 2 test. Absolute difference was not found between the 1st and 2nd measurements of ADC, WSI-preGd, WSI-postGd and wall thickness. There was systematic difference in the presence of bowel ulcers. In standardised conditions the repeatability of ADC, WSI-preGd and WSI-postGd is high. Efforts must be made to precisely define the size and appearance of ulcers that may be included in the index calculation.

scholarly journals ECO-INNOVATIONS: DIFFERENCES IN THE TURNOVER OF ENGINEERING AND THE ELECTRICAL INDUSTRY FIRMS

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Bockova ◽  
Tomas Meluzin
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Binomial Test ◽  
Main Question ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Electrical Industry ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Level Of Significance

This paper aims to examine the similarities between innovative companies in the Engineering and the Electrotechnical industry in the Czech Republic. The main question is whether R &amp; D spending in companies with eco-innovation leads to a rise in turnover even in a short period of time. The paper uses the Burea Van Dijk database – Amadeus as a data source. This data source includes 186 large enterprises with information on employee’s numbers, turnover, sector affiliation and R &amp; D expenditure. A binomial test of statistical significance was used for the comparison of the two groups of companies. The authors find that approximately one-third of enterprises record revenue slump. There was no statistically significant difference at the level of significance α = 0,05 between the shares of enterprises with eco-innovations that showed a decrease in turnover.

scholarly journals Analisis Perubahan Partai Politik Pemenang Pemilu di Indonesia

Humaniora ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 866
Author(s):  
Handy Martinus
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Voter Mobilization ◽  
Margin Of Error ◽  
The Reformation ◽  
Swing Voters ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Politics And Law ◽  
2004 Election

By three elections in Indonesia, the pattern seen is a change in a very significant political force. It changed not only the party in the first position, but also a different party: three elections produced three different parties that received the most votes. Major political changes in Indonesia have been coloring since the reformation in 1998. The first change occurred in the 1999 election. PDIP evicted Golkar that has ruled for more than 30 years claiming an absolute majority. Then in the 2004 election, the strength of the party with the most votes moved to Golkar. In 2009, a major change occurred again. Top position was taken by Democrats. This article is a study using secondary data from a survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) during the period 1 to 12 February 2012 with the population of all Indonesian citizens who have the rights to vote in elections when the survey was conducted. Number of samples taken ranged up to 2,050. Based on the sample, it is estimated margin of error of + / -2.2% at the 95% confidence level. It is concluded that the political change will continue in the 2014 election along with the negative sentiments from Indonesian people against politics and law enforcement today. Election results earlier in some parts of Indonesia showed a progressive trend increasing number of non-voters and swing voters. NasDem and Gerindra are quite prominent in voter mobilization through the air via mass media. Both attract Democrats’ swing voters whom are middle-class which are more intensively following the national news. 

scholarly journals Gender- and age-related differences in misuse of face masks in COVID-19 prevention in central European cities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda Eckl ◽  
Stefan Hansch
Keyword(s):  
Age Distribution ◽  
Binomial Test ◽  
P Value ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Central European ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Chi Square Test

1ABSTRACTObjectiveCorrect use of face masks is required for their efficacy in preventing possible droplet infections with SARS-CoV-2. We tried to provide information about differences in the distribution of gender and age groups wearing face masks incorrectly.DesignPilot field studyMethodsVisual observation of mask use in public, not age- and gender-related places in central European large cities regarding incorrect mask-wearing (n=523); statistical analysis (nominal scale) in terms of gender and estimated age group using the total numbers, binomial test and chi-square test.ResultsThere is no significant difference (binomial test: p-value = 0.43) in mask misuse between the genders (female: 271 (51.8%), male: 252 (48.2%) and 0 non-binary individuals (0%)). There is a significant difference (chi-square test: p-value < 2.2e-16) in age group distribution (170 young 10-29 years (32.5%), 261 middle-aged 30-59 years (49.9%), 92 older adults ≥ 60 years (17.6%)). In total numbers, the highest counts were observed in middle-aged persons with 261 counts (49.9%).ConclusionOur study shows an uneven age-distribution of people wearing the face mask in public improperly.

scholarly journals The Exoscope versus operating microscope in microvascular surgery: A simulation non-inferiority trial

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 242-249
Author(s):  
Georgios Pafitanis ◽  
Michalis Hadjiandreou ◽  
Alexander Alamri ◽  
Christopher Uff ◽  
Daniel Walsh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Learning Curve ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Digital Camera ◽  
Suture Line ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Operating Microscope ◽  
Microvascular Anastomosis ◽  
High Definition ◽  
Camera System ◽  
Significant Difference

Background The Exoscope is a novel high-definition digital camera system. There is limited evidence signifying the use of exoscopic devices in microsurgery. This trial objectively assesses the effects of the use of the Exoscope as an alternative to the standard operating microscope (OM) on the performance of experts in a simulated microvascular anastomosis.Methods Modus V Exoscope and OM were used by expert microsurgeons to perform standardized tasks. Hand-motion analyzer measured the total pathlength (TP), total movements (TM), total time (TT), and quality of end-product anastomosis. A clinical margin of TT was performed to prove non-inferiority. An expert performed consecutive microvascular anastomoses to provide the exoscopic learning curve until reached plateau in TT.Results Ten micro sutures and 10 anastomoses were performed. Analysis demonstrated statistically significant differences in performing micro sutures for TP, TM, and TT. There was statistical significance in TM and TT, however, marginal non-significant difference in TP regarding microvascular anastomoses performance. The intimal suture line analysis demonstrated no statistically significant differences. Non-inferiority results based on clinical inferiority margin (Δ) of TT=10 minutes demonstrated an absolute difference of 0.07 minutes between OM and Exoscope cohorts. A 51%, 58%, and 46% improvement or reduction was achieved in TT, TM, TP, respectively, during the exoscopic microvascular anastomosis learning curve.Conclusions This study demonstrated that experts’ Exoscope anastomoses appear non-inferior to the OM anastomoses. Exoscopic microvascular anastomosis was more time consuming but end-product (patency) in not clinically inferior. Experts’ “warm-up” learning curve is steep but swift and may prove to reach clinical equality.

Job Satisfaction and Organizational Commitment Among Teachers of the Bohol Association of Catholic Schools, Diocese of Tagbilaran

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Gina M. Pergamino ◽  
Angelo P. Yuayan
Keyword(s):  
Job Satisfaction ◽  
Organizational Commitment ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Margin Of Error ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Bonferroni Test ◽  
Years Of Service ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive ◽  
One Year

Job Satisfaction is an attitude the employees have about their jobs, while organizational commitment refers to a widely recognized theory covering normative, affective, and continuance aspects. The study aimed to assess the level of job satisfaction and organizational commitment among teachers in BACS. Furthermore, it examined the correlation between job satisfaction and organizational commitment. It also looked into the significant difference in job satisfaction between the respondents’ years of service. The study used the quantitative descriptive-normative survey method to gather data through standardized questionnaires. From 311 teachers, a random sample of 291 respondents was selected with a +/-1.46% margin of error at a 95% confidence interval. Results revealed that teachers were highly satisfied with their jobs, while having a moderate organizational commitment (rs = 0.524, p = 0.000). Moreover, Spearman’s rank-order correlation test revealed a positive correlation between job satisfaction and organizational commitment. Furthermore, a Kruskal-Wallis H test showed a statistically significant difference in job satisfaction between the respondents’ years of service, = 10.124, p=0.018, with a mean rank job satisfaction of 170.36 for one year and below, 137.76 for more than one year – three years, 124.70 for more than three years – five years, and 148.75 for more than five years. A Dunn-Bonferroni test showed that teachers employed for one year and below significantly had higher job satisfaction than those who stayed for more than three years – five years.

A Phase II Study of the Safety and Efficacy of a Novel Oral fXa Inhibitor (LY517717) for the Prevention of Venous Thromboembolism Following TKR or THR.

Blood ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 106 (11) ◽  
pp. 278-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giancarlo Agnelli ◽  
Sylvia K. Haas ◽  
Kathryn A. Krueger ◽  
Alun W. Bedding ◽  
John T. Brandt
Keyword(s):  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Factor X ◽  
Bleeding Events ◽  
Dose Escalation Study ◽  
Double Blind ◽  
Safety And Efficacy ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Major Orthopedic Surgery ◽  
The Absolute

Abstract Background: There is a continuing need for safe, effective and convenient therapies for prophylaxis of venous thromboembolism (VTE) after major orthopedic surgery. LY517717 (LY), an oral direct inhibitor of activated factor X (fXa), has been well tolerated in healthy subjects and is being developed to address these needs. Objective: To assess the safety and efficacy of LY and to determine whether one or more doses of LY is non-inferior to enoxaparin in preventing VTE in patients undergoing total knee replacement (TKR) or total hip replacement (THR). Methods: In a double-blind, double-dummy, dose-escalation study, patients undergoing TKR or THR were randomized to receive one of six oral doses of LY (25, 50, 75, 100, 125 or 150mg) or enoxaparin, 40 mg SC once daily. LY was administered fasting 6–8 hours after wound closure and then each morning. Enoxaparin was administered the night before surgery and then every evening. Both treatments were continued for a total of 6–10 doses. Patients underwent mandatory bilateral venography within 12 hours of the last dose of oral study drug and were assessed for symptomatic deep vein thrombosis (DVT), pulmonary embolism (PE) and bleeding events through day 30 (±7). All VTE and bleeding events were adjudicated by a blinded independent central adjudication committee. DVT detected by mandatory venography and symptomatic DVT and PE events were included in the combined VTE endpoint. Non-inferiority would be declared if the upper limit of the 90% confidence interval (CI) for the absolute difference in VTE incidence between an LY dose and enoxaparin was less than 0.14. Results: 511 subjects were randomized. 507 patients received at least one dose of LY or enoxaparin and were included in the safety analyses. 391 patients had an evaluable bilateral venogram or experienced an objectively confirmed clinical VTE and were included in the efficacy analyses. The 3 lowest doses were stopped early due to lack of efficacy, and the study was completed with the 3 highest doses. VTE and bleed event data through the treatment and follow-up periods are summarized in the table. The 100, 125 and 150 mg doses of LY were non-inferior to enoxaparin in the incidence of symptomatic or venographic DVT or PE (upper limits for the 90% CI of the absolute differences are 0.13, 0.05 and 0.01, respectively). Adjudicated bleed events were uncommon in both LY and enoxaparin patients. Conclusion: The 100, 125 and 150 mg doses of LY517717 were as efficacious as enoxaparin 40 mg for the prevention of VTE following TKR or THR in this study. LY was safe and well tolerated by study patients, with no significant difference in bleeding risk compared with enoxaparin. Incidence of VTE and Bleed Events (%) (preliminary results)*

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