A proposed source model for the great Kau, Hawaii, earthquake of 1868

1988 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 1450-1462
Author(s):  
Max Wyss
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Sediment Layer ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Mauna Loa ◽  
Rupture Plane ◽  
Felt Area ◽  
Eastern Edge ◽  
Oceanic Sediment

Abstract On 2 April 1868, an earthquake occurred which destroyed all stone buildings in southern Hawaii. It was felt on Kauai Island at 600 km, and ground shaking of intensity VII was reported up to 130 km distance. Based on the magnitude versus felt-area relationship for Hawaii, it is estimated that the magnitude of the earthquake was about 8. The foreshock sequence lasted 5 days, and the aftershocks lasted for years to perhaps a decade. It appears that this earthquake was one of the very few largest events in historic time in the United States, excluding Alaska, but its return period is unknown. It is proposed that the source of this earthquake was slip of the upper crust towards the southeast along a near-horizontal plane at approximately 9 km depth. The rupture plane may have had dimensions of at least 50 km × 80 km. It is proposed that its eastern edge extended from near Mauna Loa's summit to the south along the volcano's southwest rift. In this model, magma intrusions into Mauna Loa and its southwest rift provide the stresses which act perpendicular to the rift and which push the volcano's southwest flank away from the edifice of the island of Hawaii. The oceanic sediment layer upon which this edifice is deposited acts as a layer of weakness containing the fault plane. This model explains the eruptive pattern of Mauna Loa and its southwest rift, as well as the growing separation between the southwest rift zones of the two volcanoes: Kilauea and Mauna Loa. Geodetic monitoring of southern Hawaii, particularly of the area between the two active volcano's southwest rifts, could test this hypothesis and lead to an estimate of the recurrence time.

scholarly journals KASTORIA “BLIND” ACTIVE FAULT: HAZARDOUS SEISMOGENIC FAULT OF THE NW GREECE

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 442
Author(s):  
Ch. P. Metaxas ◽  
N.S. Lalechos ◽  
S.N. Lalechos
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Seismic Cycle ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Seismicity Parameters ◽  
River Bed ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Eastern Edge

The Aliakmon river bed, as well as a series of certain parallel narrow grabens, striking NW-SE are filled with Neogene-Quaternary deposits; thus showing the existence of the covered, “blind”, fault zone, which borders the Eastern edge of Meso-Hellenic Trench and passes in close vicinity to the Kastoria town. Distribution of earthquakes epicentres (M≥4.0, for the period of 1930-2009) along this segmented rupture zone, proves the existence at depth of an active seismogenic fault which has generated some strong earthquakes in the past: 1709, M = 6.0; 1812, M = 6.5 and 1894, M = 6.1 (~ 100-year Recurrence Time events). The calculations of Lapsed Rate characterizing the stage of the fault seismic cycle (LR = 115%) show that the active Kastoria fault could be in a pre-seismic stage of its seismic cycle. Applying the seismicity rates model (time-independent Gutenberg-Richter recurrence model) and using the fault seismicity parameters, obtained inside the fault influence zone, as input in EZ-FRISK® software, the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis has been carried out for the area of Kastoria town. The results show that calculated magnitude for event with 100- year recurrence time is ~6.1, which correspond to the magnitude of three events, occurred at the fault during the last 300 years (corresponding average slip rate . 3 mm/year). As the calculated Hazard Curve shows, the event of that range could give ground shaking in the Kastoria town in the order of 0.625 g at the spectral period of 0.3 sec.

Effects of temporal variations in seismicity on seismic hazard

1981 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 321-334
Author(s):  
Robin K. McGuire ◽  
Theodore P. Barnhard
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Ground Shaking

abstract The accuracy of stationary mathematical models of seismicity for calculating probabilities of damaging shaking is examined using the history of earthquakes in China from 1350 A.D. to 1949 A.D. During this time, rates of seismic activity varied periodically by a factor of 10. Probabilities of damaging shaking are calculated in 62 cities in North China using 50 yr of earthquake data to estimate seismicity parameters; the probabilities are compared to statistics of damaging shaking in the same cities for 50 yr following the data window. These comparisons indicate that the seismic hazard analysis is accurate if: (1) the maximum possible earthquake size in each seismogenic zone is determined from the entire seismic history rather than from a short-time window; and (2) the future seismic activity can be estimated accurately. The first condition emphasizes the importance of realistically estimating the maximum possible size of earthquakes on faults. The second indicates the need to understand possible trends in seismic activity where these exist, or to develop an earthquake prediction capability with which to estimate future activity. Without the capability of estimating future seismicity, stationary models provide less accurate but generally conservative indications of seismic ground-shaking hazard. In the United States, the available earthquake history is brief but gives no indication of changing rates of activity. The rate of seismic strain release in the Central and Eastern United States has been constant over the last 180 yr, and the geological record of earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault indicates no temporal trend for large shocks over the last 15 centuries. Both observations imply that seismic activity is either stationary or of such a long period that it may be treated as stationary for seismic hazard analyses in the United States.

Beyond Barrages and Boundaries

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheryl Colopy
Keyword(s):  
River System ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Ganges Basin ◽  
The World ◽  
Transboundary Water Management ◽  
The Right ◽  
International Border ◽  
The Ganges ◽  
Eastern Edge

A low dam girdles the Ganga about sixty miles beyond Bhagalpur. More than a mile and a half across, the structure is the longest barrage in the world. It has 109 gates, almost twice as many as the Koshi barrage I traveled over near the Nepal-India border. Its name, Farakka, is anathema to people throughout Bangladesh. In India mainly fishermen on the Ganga know much about it. The barrage, which sits just eleven miles from the international border that separates the tiny nation from its big neighbor, has poisoned relations between the two governments for forty years. The story of Farakka is one of the thorniest river disputes on the subcontinent. Whole books have been written about it on both sides of the border as well as by international commentators, not to mention the technical treatises it has engendered. The barrage did not accomplish the task for which it was built and has harmed people in both India and Bangladesh. Farakka offers a warning about how not to handle transboundary rivers to prevent complex subcontinental watersharing problems from becoming crises in the future. Borders fragment the river system in the Ganges basin, creating unique transboundary water management challenges. To visualize the Indian subcontinent’s river-sharing problems, imagine a slice of pizza. Take a bite out of the middle of the bumpy top crust. That’s Nepal. Then take a small bite out of the right, or eastern edge, just below the crust. That’s Bangladesh. The rest of the slice is India. These three nations share the greater Ganges basin. The river spills into the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh after flowing across the wide top part of India. Many of the river’s major tributaries come from Nepal. The smaller slice of pizza to the west would include Pakistan and the Indus River, but that’s another complicated story. Now move the piece of pizza to North America and pretend the United States is the majority of the slice.

1992

1994 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. W. Meinig
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Endangered Species ◽  
Rare Species ◽  
Good Deal ◽  
The United States ◽  
General Situation ◽  
Migration History ◽  
The University ◽  
Local Reproduction ◽  
Eastern Edge

Had the idea of such an invitation ever crossed my mind, I would have thought the chances of being asked to give the Haskins Lecture as a good deal less likely than being struck by lightning. I found it a stunning experience, and I cannot be sure that I have recovered sufficiently to deliver a coherent response. I can only assume that I was selected because I am one of a rare species in the United States—an historical humanistic geographer—and someone must have suggested it might be of interest to have a look at such a creature, see how he might describe himself and hear how he got into such an obscure profession. Geographers are an endangered species in America, as, alas, attested by their status on this very campus [the University of Chicago], where one of the oldest and greatest graduate departments, founded ninety years ago, has been reduced to some sort of committee, and the few remaining geographers live out their lives without hope of local reproduction. I shall have more to say about this general situation, for while I have never personally felt endangered, no American geographer can work unaware of the losses of positions we suffered over many years and of the latent dangers of sudden raids from preying administrators who see us as awkward and vulnerable misfits who can be culled from the expensive herds of academics they try to manage. I have always been a geographer, but it took me a while to learn that one could make a living at it. My career began when I first looked out upon a wider world from a farmhouse on a hill overlooking a small town on the eastern edge of Washington State. My arrival on this earth at that particular place was the result of the convergence (this is a geographer’s explanation of such an event) of two quite common strands of American migration history. My paternal grandparents emigrated from a village in Saxony to Iowa in 1880, following the path of some kin.

Spatial distribution of ground shaking in characteristic earthquakes on the Wellington and Alpine faults, New Zealand, estimated from a distributed-source model

2011 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Dowrick ◽  
David A. Rhoades
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Distributed Source ◽  
Alpine Fault ◽  
Measuring Site ◽  
Characteristic Earthquakes ◽  
Fault Trace ◽  
Distributed Source Model

A distributed-source model, recently developed by the authors, was used to study the spatial distribution of Modified Mercalli (MM) intensities and peak ground accelerations (PGA) in characteristic earthquakes, of Mw7.5 and 8.1 respectively, on the 75 km long Wellington fault and the 413 km long Alpine fault. In each event the predicted intensities reach MM10 and the PGAs reach 0.8g near the fault trace over much of its length, varying along it depending on the location of asperities. PGAs are related to MM intensity using a quadratic expression derived using New Zealand data. Comparisons are made between the PGA patterns estimated indirectly from the distributed-source MM intensity model and those estimated directly from a PGA model, which defines site-source distance as the shortest distance from the site to the fault. There are many similarities and some differences, the latter being attributable largely to the different methods of measuring site-to-source distances. Finally selected seismic risk issues for people and the built environment, including lifelines, are considered for Alpine fault earthquakes.

Development of a National Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology

1997 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 643-661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert V. Whitman ◽  
Thalia Anagnos ◽  
Charles A. Kircher ◽  
Henry J. Lagorio ◽  
R. Scott Lawson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Earth Science ◽  
Data Entry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Loss Estimation ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Methodology Development ◽  
Earthquake Loss ◽  
History Of ◽  
Gis Software

This paper summarizes the development of a geographic information system (GIS)-based regional loss estimation methodology for the United States funded as part of a four-and-one-half year project by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). The methodology incorporates state-of-the-art approaches for: characterizing earth science hazards, including ground shaking, liquefaction, and landsliding; estimating damage and losses to buildings and lifelines; estimating casualties, shelter requirements and economic losses; and data entry to support loss estimates. The history of the methodology development; the methodology's scope, framework, and limitations; supporting GIS software; potential user applications; and future developments are discussed.

scholarly journals VARIATION IN ORNAMENTAL TRAITS OF DALEA PURPUREA

HortScience ◽  
1992 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 679g-679
Author(s):  
Dale T. Lingaren
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
The United States ◽  
Herbaceous Plant ◽  
Perennial Herbaceous Plant ◽  
Landscape Plant ◽  
Number Of Stems ◽  
Ornamental Traits ◽  
Eastern Edge ◽  
Two Populations

Dalea purpurea Vent. (Purple Prairie Clover) is a perennial herbaceous plant found growing in the United States from North Dakota to Texas and from the Mississippi River to the eastern edge of the Rocky Mountains. It produces excellent forage for livestock on many grasslands and has potential as an ornamental landscape plant. Two seedling populations of D. purpurea were field grown and traits including foliage color, height, lodging and stem number per plant were measured. Large differences existed within populations for these traits. A progeny population grown from seed of 5% of the plants collected from each of the two populations with the most desirable traits were also evaluated. The mean number of stems per plant varied from 8.7 and 4.2 in the parent populations to 20.2 in the progeny population. The correlation coefficients between traits varied from -0.54 to +0.39. D. purpurea does have potential as a landscape plant and selections with improved traits can be found within existing populations.

scholarly journals Earthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert 2.0: Public Rollout

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (3) ◽  
pp. 1763-1775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica D. Kohler ◽  
Deborah E. Smith ◽  
Jennifer Andrews ◽  
Angela I. Chung ◽  
Renate Hartog ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Warning System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Waveform Data ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Event Rates

Abstract The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system is designed to automatically identify and characterize the initiation and rupture evolution of large earthquakes, estimate the intensity of ground shaking that will result, and deliver alerts to people and systems that may experience shaking, prior to the occurrence of shaking at their location. It is configured to issue alerts to locations within the West Coast of the United States. In 2018, ShakeAlert 2.0 went live in a regional public test in the first phase of a general public rollout. The ShakeAlert system is now providing alerts to more than 60 institutional partners in the three states of the western United States where most of the nation’s earthquake risk is concentrated: California, Oregon, and Washington. The ShakeAlert 2.0 product for public alerting is a message containing a polygon enclosing a region predicted to experience modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) threshold levels that depend on the delivery method. Wireless Emergency Alerts are delivered for M 5+ earthquakes with expected shaking of MMI≥IV. For cell phone apps, the thresholds are M 4.5+ and MMI≥III. A polygon format alert is the easiest description for selective rebroadcasting mechanisms (e.g., cell towers) and is a requirement for some mass notification systems such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Integrated Public Alert and Warning System. ShakeAlert 2.0 was tested using historic waveform data consisting of 60 M 3.5+ and 25 M 5.0+ earthquakes, in addition to other anomalous waveforms such as calibration signals. For the historic event test, the average M 5+ false alert and missed event rates for ShakeAlert 2.0 are 8% and 16%. The M 3.5+ false alert and missed event rates are 10% and 36.7%. Real-time performance metrics are also presented to assess how the system behaves in regions that are well-instrumented, sparsely instrumented, and for offshore earthquakes.

scholarly journals VEIN v0.2.2: an R package for bottom–up vehicular emissions inventories

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2209-2229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Ibarra-Espinosa ◽  
Rita Ynoue ◽  
Shane O'Sullivan ◽  
Edzer Pebesma ◽  
María de Fátima Andrade ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Road Transport ◽  
R Package ◽  
The United States ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Emission Factors ◽  
Vehicular Emissions ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Emissions Inventories

Abstract. Emission inventories are the quantification of pollutants from different sources. They provide important information not only for climate and weather studies but also for urban planning and environmental health protection. We developed an open-source model (called Vehicular Emissions Inventory – VEIN v0.2.2) that provides high-resolution vehicular emissions inventories for different fields of studies. We focused on vehicular sources at street and hourly levels due to the current lack of information about these sources, mainly in developing countries.The type of emissions covered by VEIN are exhaust (hot and cold) and evaporative considering the deterioration of the factors. VEIN also performs speciation and incorporates functions to generate and spatially allocate emissions databases. It allows users to load their own emission factors, but it also provides emission factors from the road transport model (Copert), the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Brazilian databases. The VEIN model reads, distributes by age of use and extrapolates hourly traffic data, and it estimates emissions hourly and spatially. Based on our knowledge, VEIN is the first bottom–up vehicle emissions software that allows input to the WRF-Chem model. Therefore, the VEIN model provides an important, easy and fast way of elaborating or analyzing vehicular emissions inventories under different scenarios. The VEIN results can be used as an input for atmospheric models, health studies, air quality standardizations and decision making.

Evaluation of models for earthquake source spectra in eastern North America

1998 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 917-934
Author(s):  
Gail M. Atkinson ◽  
David M. Boore
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Source Models ◽  
Felt Area ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Abstract There have been several relations proposed in the last few years to describe the amplitudes of ground motion in eastern North America (ENA). These relations differ significantly in their assumptions concerning the amplitude and shape of the spectrum of energy radiated from the earthquake source. In this article, we compare ground motions predicted for these source models against the sparse ENA ground-motion database. The source models evaluated include the two-corner models of Boatwright and Choy (1992), Atkinson (1993a), Haddon (1996), and Joyner (1997a,b), and the one-corner model of Brune [as independently implemented by Frankel et al. (1996) and by Toro et al. (1997)]. The database includes data from ENA mainshocks of M > 4 and historical ENA earthquakes of M > 5.5, for a total of 110 records from 11 events of 4 ≦ M ≦ 7.3, all recorded on rock. We also include 24 available rock records from 4 large earthquakes in other intraplate regions; conclusions are checked to determine whether they are sensitive to the addition of these non-ENA data. The Atkinson source model, as implemented in the ground-motion relations of Atkinson and Boore (1995), is the only model that provides unbiased ground-motion predictions over the entire period band of interest, from 0.1 to 10 sec. The source models of Frankel et al. (1996), Toro et al. (1997), and Joyner (1997a,b) all provide unbiased ground-motion estimates in the period range from 0.1 to 0.5 sec but overestimate motions at periods of 1 to 10 sec. The Haddon (1996) source model overpredicts motions at all periods, by factors of 2 to 10. These conclusions do not change significantly if data from non-ENA intraplate regions are excluded, although the tendency of all models toward overprediction of long-period amplitudes becomes more pronounced. The tendency of most proposed ENA source models to overestimate long-period motions is further confirmed by an evaluation of the relationship between Ms, a measure of the spectrum at 20-sec period, and moment magnitude. A worldwide catalog of shallow continental earthquakes (Triep and Sykes, 1996) is compared to the Ms-M relations implied by each of the source models. The Atkinson source model is consistent with these data, while other proposed ENA models overpredict the average Ms for a given M. The implications of MMI data from historical earthquakes are also addressed, by exploiting the correlation between felt area and high-frequency source spectral level. High-frequency spectral amplitudes, as specified by the Atkinson and Boore (1995), Frankel et al. (1996), Toro et al. (1997), and Joyner (1997a,b) source models, equal or exceed the levels inferred from the felt areas of most of the large ENA events, with the noteable exception of the Saguenay earthquake. By contrast, high-frequency spectral amplitudes specified by the Haddon (1996) source model agree with the felt area of the Saguenay earthquake but overpredict the felt areas of nearly all other large events. In general, models that fit the Saugenay data—be it intensity data, strong-ground-motion data, regional seismographic data, or telescismic data—will not fit the data from the remaining earthquakes. A source model derived from the California database, suitably modified for regional differences in crustal properties, is also evaluated. This model is not significantly different from the Atkinson model for ENA. There is an important practical application of this similarity, which we develop as an engineering tool: Empirical ground-motion relations for California may be modified to predict ENA ground motions from future large earthquakes.

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