Towards Food Security: the Prediction of Climatic Factors in Nigeria using Random Forest Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 70-81
Author(s):  
Charity Ojochogwu Egbunu ◽  
Matthew Tunde Ogedengbe ◽  
Terungwa Simon Yange ◽  
Terlumun Gbaden ◽  
Malik Adeiza Rufai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Random Forest Algorithm ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
The Impact

With the explosive growth in the world’s population which has little or no corresponding rise in the food production, food insecurity has become eminent, and hence, the need to seek for opportunities to increase food production in order to cater for this population is paramount. The second goal of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (i.e., ending hunger, achieving food security and improved nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture) set by the United Nations (UN) for the year 2030 clearly acknowledged this fact. Improving food production cannot be achieved using the obsolete conventional methods of agriculture by our farmers; hence, this study focuses on developing a model for predicting climatic conditions with a view to reducing their negative impact, and boosting the yield of crop. Temperature, wind, humidity and rainfall were considered as the effect of these factors is more devastating in Nigeria as compared to sun light which is always in abundance. We implemented random forest algorithm using Python programming language to predict the aforementioned climate parameters. The data used was gotten from the Nigerian Meteorological (NiMet) Agency, Lokoja, Kogi State between 1988 and 2018. The result shows that random forest algorithm is effective in climate prediction as the accuracy from the model based on the climatic factors considered was 94.64%. With this, farmers would be able to plan ahead to prevent the impact of the fluctuations in these climatic factors; thus, the yield of crops would be increased. This would dwarf the negative impact of food insecurity to the populace.

Climate change and food production in North West India

2015 ◽  
Vol 49 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Savita Ahlawat ◽  
Dhian Kaur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
North West ◽  
Significant Change ◽  
Northwest Region

At present, climate change is one of the most challenging environmental issues as it poses potential threat to different sectors of economy at global level. Agriculture being an open activity is primarily dependent on climatic factors and change in climatic conditions affects the production, quality and quantity of crop production in an area. This paper attempts to study effects of only two parameters of climate i.e. temperature and rainfall on agricultural production in northwest region of India. Northwest region comprising of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu Kashmir states is the greatest food bowl of India contributing to its food security. The analysis of mean monthly rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures (1901-2006) shows no significant change in temperature and rainfall conditions from 1901 to 1960; but afterward the change is more pronounced. On the whole any significant change in climatic conditions will not only challenge the food production of the region but also challenge the country’s food security situation.

scholarly journals SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL AGRO-FOOD PRODUCTION IN CONDITIONS OF INCREASING OPENNESS OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 320-327
Author(s):  
Ruslan MUDRAK
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Food Security ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Foreign Markets ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Foreign Trade Turnover

The new reality of the domestic socio-economic environment is an increase in the openness of the national economy – an increase in the share of foreign trade turnover in the structure of public production. Ukrainian society has an extremely pressing issue on its agenda – how to save a place in a group of countries between the center and the periphery, and not to get there into the periphery zone forever. The purpose of the article is to find out how the openness of the national economy influences the sustainable development of regional agro-food production. A positive consequence of increasing the openness of the national economy to the sustainable development of regional agro-food production is the increase in the access of Ukrainian farmers to foreign markets with high capacity. Increasing access to overseas markets enables Ukrainian producers to leverage their existing resources and maximize their revenue. An important result for the national economy of increasing access to foreign markets for domestic producers is the increase in foreign exchange earnings. The negative impact of increasing the openness of the national economy on regional agro-food production is as follows: increasing the risk of the Dutch disease in Ukrainian agriculture; over-exports of the agricultural raw materials (it causes unused reserves of increasing the share of value added by increasing the degree of processing and causing damage to the food security of the state); the development of monoculturalism, which has a negative impact on rural employment; increasing the risk of erosion and degradation of agricultural land. Keywords: sustainable development, agro-food production, opens economy, over-exports, raw materials, added value, food security, rural unemployment, soil destruction.

scholarly journals Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Mingyang Sun ◽  
Weixing Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Output Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.

Impact of climatic conditions on the parameters of failure flow of military vehicles

2021 ◽  
pp. 095440702110202
Author(s):  
Nikolaj Dobrzinskij ◽  
Algimantas Fedaravicius ◽  
Kestutis Pilkauskas ◽  
Egidijus Slizys
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Technical Equipment ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Military Vehicles ◽  
Equipment Reliability ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
The Impact

Relevance of the article is based on participation of armed forces in various operations and exercises, where reliability of machinery is one of the most important factors. Transportation of soldiers as well as completion of variety of tasks is ensured by properly functioning technical equipment. Reliability of military vehicles – armoured SISU E13TP Finnish built and HMMWV M1025 USA built were selected as the object of the article. Impact of climatic conditions on reliability of the vehicles exploited in southwestern part of the Atlantic continental forest area is researched by a case study of the vehicles exploitation under conditions of the climate of Lithuania. Reliability of military vehicles depends on a number of factors such as properties of the vehicles and external conditions of their operation. Their systems and mechanisms are influenced by a number of factors that cause different failures. Climatic conditions represent one of the factors of operating load which is directly dependent on the climate zone. Therefore, assessment of the reliability is started with the analysis of climatic factors affecting operating conditions of the vehicles. Relationship between the impact of climatic factors and failure flow of the vehicles is presented and discussed.

scholarly journals High food insecurity in Latinx families and associated COVID-19 infection in the Greater Bay Area, California

BMC Nutrition ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Milagro Escobar ◽  
Andrea DeCastro Mendez ◽  
Maria Romero Encinas ◽  
Sofia Villagomez ◽  
Janet M. Wojcicki
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
Employment Status ◽  
The United States ◽  
Household Food Security ◽  
Bay Area ◽  
Household Food ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Food insecurity impacts nearly one-in-four Latinx households in the United States and has been exacerbated by the novel coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We examined the impact of COVID-19 on household and child food security in three preexisting, longitudinal, Latinx urban cohorts in the San Francisco Bay Area (N = 375 households, 1875 individuals). Households were initially recruited during pregnancy and postpartum at Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital (ZSFG) and UCSF Benioff prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. For this COVID-19 sub-study, participants responded to a 15-min telephonic interview. Participants answered 18 questions from the US Food Security Food Module (US HFSSM) and questions on types of food consumption, housing and employment status, and history of COVID-19 infection as per community or hospital-based testing. Food security and insecurity levels were compared with prior year metrics. Results We found low levels of household food security in Latinx families (by cohort: 29.2%; 34.2%; 60.0%) and child food security (56.9%, 54.1%, 78.0%) with differences between cohorts explained by self-reported levels of education and employment status. Food security levels were much lower than those reported previously in two cohorts where data had been recorded from prior years. Reported history of COVID-19 infection in households was 4.8% (95% Confidence Interval (CI); 1.5–14.3%); 7.2% (95%CI, 3.6–13.9%) and 3.5% (95%CI, 1.7–7.2%) by cohort and was associated with food insecurity in the two larger cohorts (p = 0.03; p = 0.01 respectively). Conclusions Latinx families in the Bay Area with children are experiencing a sharp rise in food insecurity levels during the COVID-19 epidemic. Food insecurity, similar to other indices of poverty, is associated with increased risk for COVID-19 infection. Comprehensive interventions are needed to address food insecurity in Latinx populations and further studies are needed to better assess independent associations between household food insecurity, poor nutritional health and risk of COVID-19 infection.

South Africa’s increasing climate variability and its effect on food production

2021 ◽  
pp. 003072702110049
Author(s):  
Mashudu Tshikovhi ◽  
Roscoe Bertrum van Wyk
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Fixed Effects Panel Regression ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of increasing climate variability on food production in South Africa, focusing on maize and wheat yields. A two-way fixed effects panel regression model was used to assess the climate variability impacts, analysing secondary data for the period 2000 to 2019 for nine provinces in South Africa. The study found that increasing climate variability has a negative impact on maize and wheat production in South Africa. Specifically, the results indicated a negative correlation between mean annual temperature with both maize and wheat yields. A decrease in precipitation affected maize yields negatively, while the impact on wheat yields was positive, although insignificant. This analysis, therefore, depicted that crop yields generally increase with more annual precipitation and decrease with higher temperatures. The study recommends that funding initiatives to educate farmers on increasing climate variability and its effects on farming activities in South Africa should be prioritised.

scholarly journals Effect of Climatic Factors on Stem Biomass and Carbon Stock of Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla in Daxing’anling Mountain of Inner Mongolia, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dilawar Khan ◽  
Muhammad Atif Muneer ◽  
Zaib-Un- Nisa ◽  
Sher Shah ◽  
Muhammad Amir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Inner Mongolia ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
High Temperature Stress ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Larix Gmelinii ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Betula Platyphylla ◽  
Stem Biomass ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature

Climate change has become a global concern for scientists as it is affecting almost every ecosystem. Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla are native and dominant forest species in the Daxing’anling Mountains of Inner Mongolia, playing a major role in carbon sequestration of this region. This study was carried out to assess the effect of climate variables including precipitation and temperature on the biomass of Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla forests. For this purpose, we used the climate-sensitive stem biomass allometric model for both species separately to find out accurate stem biomass along with climatic factors from 1950 to 2016. A total of 66 random plots were taken to attain the data from this study area. Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla stem biomass have a strong correlation with annual precipitation (R2 = 0.86, R2 = 0.71, R2 = 0.79, and R2 = 0.59) and maximum temperature (R2 = 0.76, R2 = 0.64, R2 = 0.67, and R2 = 0.52). However, annual minimum temperature (R2 = 0.58, R2 = 0.43, R2 = 0.55, and R2 = 0.46) and annual mean temperature (R2 = 0.40, R2 = 0.22, R2 = 0.36, and R2 = 0.19) have a relatively negative impact on tree biomass. Therefore, we suggest that both species have a very strong adaptive nature with climatic variation and hence can survive under drought and high-temperature stress climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Examining the impact of COVID-19 and its related lockdown on food security and job losses: A case of Kumasi, Ghana

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Adusei
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Online Marketing ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Food And Nutrition Security ◽  
Nutrition Security ◽  
Food And Nutrition ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The COVID-19 and partial lockdown has brought significant effects on the entire economy, especially on food security and job losses. This study was carried out in Asokwa Municipal with the objective of examining the impact of COVID-19 disease and its related lockdown on food and nutrition security and job losses. The study site form part of the cities in Ghana to experience the partial lockdown, hence it qualifies for the selection. Both primary and secondary data were used. By means of purposive sampling technique, fifty respondents were selected as sample size. The study employed a qualitative approach with a descriptive and narrative posture to the presentation, discussion and analysis of data. Open-ended questionnaire and a checklist were used for data collection through semi-structured interviews. The results revealed that, food and nutrition insecurity, job loss and income reductions are still very common, affecting participants livelihood. Disproportionally affected are households whose income comes from farming, transporters, informal labour, as well as marketers.It was concluded that food insecurity is not outside the impact of COVID-19 and its associated partial lockdown. Food and nutrition security are the global concern at present circumstances. The supply chain has been hit hardest by COVID-19, which causes food insecurity of most vulnerable segment of population which put them at risk. And also, most of the migrant, informal, seasonal farm workers were losing their jobs which may affect their demand for food. Therefore, the government should step-up the measures to control the pandemic without disturbing the food supply chain. The development and use of online marketing strategies where people can make orders of various produce and booked for purchases and or deliveries during a stated time range should be promoted.

scholarly journals Exploring the Impact of Crises on Food Security in Lebanon: Results from a National Cross-Sectional Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 8753
Author(s):  
Maha Hoteit ◽  
Youssef Al-Atat ◽  
Hussein Joumaa ◽  
Suheir El Ghali ◽  
Rania Mansour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Coping Strategies ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The People ◽  
Food Consumption Score ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to explore the prevalence and correlates of food insecurity among Lebanese households since the ordeals of COVID-19, economic crisis, and Beirut port explosions. At the core of the study, a mobile application entitled Nutrition Assessment System (NAS) that simplified the data collection was used as toolkit and a technical test was carried out in all Lebanese governorates between November 2020 and March 2021. Findings show that food insecurity is an immediate problem for households in Beirut and in many governorates in Lebanon. Nine in every 16 households ate less than 2 meals per day and more than 70% of them skipped their meals to spare food. Even though half the population studied had a low food consumption score, 82.4% of the people were not relying on livelihood coping strategies. However, more than three out of ten of these households relied on at least three food-based coping strategies. In addition, as for the livelihoods, this assessment found that most Lebanese households reported a drop in income along with an expansion in debt incurrence in the last 24 months to be able to buy food. Improving food security in Lebanon requires effort not only on the part of the government, but through regional and international actions.

scholarly journals Trends in crop production as a factor of ensuring food security of the Perm Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 213 (10) ◽  
pp. 81-92
Author(s):  
Lyudmila Shalaeva
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Potato Production ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sown Area ◽  
Perm Region

Abstract. Goal. The assessment of the main trends in the activity of agricultural producers in crop production was carried out in order to substantiate the possibilities of the Perm Region for self-sufficiency with the main types of food resources in the presence of adverse effects of natural and climatic conditions. Methods. A statistical analysis was carried out using grouping and comparison methods based on the official statistics of the Perm Region for 2016-2020. Results. In accordance with the social and geographical specifics of the Perm Region, on the territory of which rural areas predominate, the largest volume of crop production is produced in the households of the population (up to 58 %), whose activities are characterized by the lowest level of stability and are more susceptible to the negative impact of natural and climatic conditions. The activity of agricultural organizations (share up to 36 %) and farms (share up to 8 %) is more stable. A higher level of dependence on natural and climatic conditions was revealed in the field of potato production, a lower level – in the field of grain and vegetables production of protected soil. The risk is reinforced by the fact that up to 70 % of the natural volume of potatoes and more than 80% of vegetables are produced in households. With a decrease in the total sown area by 1.2 %, there is a decrease in the sown area of potatoes by 15 % and vegetables by 6 %. The identified trends allowed us to identify the risk of reducing the level of food self-sufficiency of the Perm Region with potatoes and vegetables. The insecurity of domestic potato consumption in the Perm Region is, according to preliminary data, 13 % in 2020. The presence of risk was also revealed for vegetables, the internal consumption of the region was provided with vegetable products of its own production by an average of 56% during the study period. The results obtained allow us to identify the directions of optimization of the Perm Region strategy in solving the problems of food self-sufficiency. Scientific novelty. The dynamics of factors of crop production (structure, yield, acreage, intensification) is assessed taking into account the social, geographical, natural and climatic specifics of the Perm Region through the prism of the impact on the regional food balance and the level of self-sufficiency of the region with potatoes and vegetables.

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