The key role of ocean-induced non-conservative processes in Northern Hemisphere stratospheric response to climate changes.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nour-Eddine Omrani ◽  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
Sandro Lubis ◽  
Fumiaki Ogawa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Finite Amplitude ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Tropical Ocean ◽  
Wave Induced ◽  
The Impact

<p>The response of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere to climate change has been usually studied within the classical Transformed Eulerian Mean framework, which focuses mainly on the impact of the resolved atmospheric waves. The role of the non-conservative (or wave-free) processes (like diabatic heating and diffusive potential vorticity mixing) in setting the stratospheric response to climate change remains poorly understood. Here we use different stand-alone atmospheric model experiments and the newly developed Finite Amplitude Local Wave Activity (FALWA) theory, in order to understand the role and the origins of the non-conservative processes in the NH stratospheric response to climate change.</p><p>Our model response can reproduce the well-known weakening of the NH polar stratospheric vortex and strengthening of mid-latitude and subtropical stratospheric westerlies.  It is shown that the overall structure of the wintertime response of the NH stratosphere to climate change is maintained mainly by the ocean-induced non-conservative processes with limited contribution of the wave-induced conservative dynamics. In particular, the tropical ocean warming due to climate change maintains the wave free component of the westerly wind, which setup the background wind for poleward wave propagation and the associated wave-induced weakening of the polar stratospheric vortex. The FALWA budget reveals that the weak response of the conservative (or wave induced) component of the stratospheric westerly is maintained mainly by the eddy meridional potential vorticity (PV) transport (or EP-flux divergence) against the non-conservative diffusive PV-mixing. Our work requires the consideration of the non-conservative processes for an accurate dynamical understanding of the stratospheric response to climate change.</p>

On Approaches to Taking into Account the Risks of Changing Climatic Conditions when Planning and Implementing Oil and Gas Projects

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-65
Author(s):  
P. N. Mikheev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The Impact

The article discusses issues related to the impact of climate change on the objects of the oil and gas industry. The main trends in climate change on a global and regional (on the territory of Russian Federation) scale are outlined. Possible approaches to the identification and assessment of climate risks are discussed. The role of climatic risks as physical factors at various stages of development and implementation of oil and gas projects is shown. Based on the example of oil and gas facilities in the Tomsk region, a qualitative assessment of the level of potential risk from a weather and climatic perspective is given. Approaches to creating a risk management and adaptation system to climate change are presented.

scholarly journals Compensation between Resolved Wave Driving and Parameterized Orographic Gravity Wave Driving of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and Its Response to Climate Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (14) ◽  
pp. 5601-5610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Sigmond ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Remarkable Degree ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Following recent findings, the interaction between resolved (Rossby) wave drag and parameterized orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) is investigated, in terms of their driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), in a comprehensive climate model. To this end, the parameter that effectively determines the strength of OGWD in present-day and doubled CO2 simulations is varied. The authors focus on the Northern Hemisphere during winter when the largest response of the BDC to climate change is predicted to occur. It is found that increases in OGWD are to a remarkable degree compensated by a reduction in midlatitude resolved wave drag, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC. This compensation is also found for the response to climate change: changes in the OGWD contribution to the BDC response to climate change are compensated by opposite changes in the resolved wave drag contribution to the BDC response to climate change, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC response to climate change. By contrast, compensation does not occur at northern high latitudes, where resolved wave driving and the associated downwelling increase with increasing OGWD, both for the present-day climate and the response to climate change. These findings raise confidence in the credibility of climate model projections of the strengthened BDC.

scholarly journals Interlinkages between Urbanization and Climate Change: Identifying and Understanding the Challenges and the Prospects

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-300
Author(s):  
Abhinav Alakshendra ◽  
Arjun Kumar ◽  
Simi Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Governance ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
Government Organizations ◽  
Urban Service ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

India is urbanizing at an alarming rate and the impact of climate change is becoming more visible each passing day. The rapid urbanization and climate change have severe direct and indirect consequences, such as increasing poverty, inequality, massive displacement, public health concerns, and challenges of urban governance, among others. This paper identifies some of the most pressing issues faced by urban India in the context of climate change. It also details the interventions undertaken at the local, national, and international levels to counter the effect of the climate change. In addition, it critically evaluates the role of government organizations, especially in terms of undertaking regulatory and planning functions. The paper argues that the implementation of institutional reforms would enable the government to reach out to the private sector to improve urban service delivery. It also provides examples of best practices from India and the world in combating climate change through adaptation and mitigation approaches.Abstrak. India mengalami urbanisasi pada tingkat yang mengkhawatirkan dan dampak perubahan iklim menjadi terlihat setiap hari. Urbanisasi yang cepat dan perubahan iklim memiliki konsekuensi langsung dan tidak langsung yang parah, seperti antara lain meningkatnya kemiskinan, ketimpangan, pengungsian besar-besaran, masalah kesehatan masyarakat, dan tantangan tata kelola kota. Makalah ini mengidentifikasi beberapa masalah paling mendesak yang dihadapi oleh perkotaan India dalam konteks perubahan iklim. Makalah ini juga merinci intervensi yang dilakukan di tingkat lokal, nasional, dan internasional untuk melawan dampak perubahan iklim. Selain itu, secara kritis makalah ini mengevaluasi peran organisasi pemerintah, terutama dalam menjalankan fungsi pengaturan dan perencanaan. Makalah ini berpendapat bahwa pelaksanaan reformasi kelembagaan akan memungkinkan pemerintah menjangkau sektor swasta untuk membantu meningkatkan pelayanan perkotaan. Makalah ini juga memberikan contoh praktik terbaik dari India dan dunia dalam memerangi perubahan iklim melalui pendekatan adaptasi dan mitigasi.Kata kunci. Urbanisasi, perubahan iklim, keterkaitan, tata kelola kota, mitigasi.

scholarly journals Interactions between Climate and Nutrient Cycles on Forest Response to Global Change: The Role of Mixed Forests

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ester González de Andrés
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
N Deposition ◽  
Elemental Ratios ◽  
Nutrient Mineralization ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
The Impact

Forest ecosystems are undergoing unprecedented changes in environmental conditions due to global change impacts. Modification of global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen, and the subsequent climate change are affecting forest functions at different scales, from physiology and growth of individual trees to cycling of nutrients. This review summarizes the present knowledge regarding the impact of global change on forest functioning not only with respect to climate change, which is the focus of most studies, but also the influence of altered nitrogen cycle and the interactions among them. The carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect on tree growth is expected to be constrained by nutrient imbalances resulting from high N deposition rates and the counteractive effect of increasing water deficit, which interact in a complex way. At the community level, responses to global change are modified by species interactions that may lead to competition for resources and/or relaxation due to facilitation and resource partitioning processes. Thus, some species mixtures can be more resistant to drought than their respective pure forests, albeit it depends on environmental conditions and species’ functional traits. Climate change and nitrogen deposition have additional impacts on litterfall dynamics, and subsequent decomposition and nutrient mineralization processes. Elemental ratios (i.e., stoichiometry) are associated with important ecosystem traits, including trees’ adaptability to stress or decomposition rates. As stoichiometry of different ecosystem components are also influenced by global change, nutrient cycling in forests will be altered too. Therefore, a re-assessment of traditional forest management is needed in order to cope with global change. Proposed silvicultural systems emphasize the key role of diversity to assure multiple ecosystem services, and special attention has been paid to mixed-species forests. Finally, a summary of the patterns and underlying mechanisms governing the relationships between diversity and different ecosystems functions, such as productivity and stability, is provided.

scholarly journals Small-scaled association between ambient temperature and campylobacteriosis incidence in Germany

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Oberheim ◽  
Christoph Höser ◽  
Guido Lüchters ◽  
Thomas Kistemann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Recent Part ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Incidence Increase ◽  
Observation Period

Abstract Campylobacteriosis is the leading bacterial cause of human diarrheal illness worldwide. Campylobacteriosis incidence exhibits seasonality and has been attributed to ambient temperature. However, the role of ambient temperature on campylobacteriosis remains poorly understood. To examine the impact of ambient temperature on local campylobacteriosis in Germany, weekly incidences on NUTS-3 level were analysed using a novel small-scaled approach, regression and time lags. Campylobacteriosis incidence correlated positively with temperatures between − 5 and 28 °C. The sigmoid regression model estimated an incidence increase of 0.52 per 5 °C temperature rise in the observation period. The weekly average of daily minimum temperature was most significant at a time lag of two weeks and showed the steepest incidence increase of 0.13 per 1 °C temperature increase in a temperature corridor of 5.1 to 12.2 °C. The impact of average minimum temperatures on campylobacteriosis incidence is crucial, likely to be indirect and especially relevant in the recent part of the infection chain. Vectors or human behaviour are presumably more directly linked with temperature than the pathogen’s microbiology and should be examined. These variables outweigh the direct temperature-pathogen relationship when the whole chain of infection is considered. In the context of climate change, campylobacteriosis is likely to increase in Germany due to an increased temperature effect.

Barotropic and Baroclinic Eddy Feedbacks in the Midlatitude Jet Variability and Responses to Climate Change–Like Thermal Forcings

2016 ◽  
Vol 74 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Alex Burrows ◽  
Gang Chen ◽  
Lantao Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Finite Amplitude ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Flow Interactions ◽  
Jet Variability ◽  
Vertically Propagating

Abstract Studies have suggested that the persistence in the meridional vacillation of the midlatitude jet (i.e., annular mode time scale) in comprehensive climate models is related to the model biases in climatological jet latitude, with important implications for projections of future climates and midlatitude weather events. Through the use of the recently developed finite-amplitude wave activity formalism and feedback quantifying techniques, this paper has quantified the role of barotropic and baroclinic eddy feedbacks in annular mode time scales using an idealized dry atmospheric model. The eddy–mean flow interaction that characterizes the persistent anomalous state of the midlatitude jet depends on processes associated with the lower-tropospheric source of vertically propagating Rossby waves, baroclinic mechanisms, and processes associated with upper-tropospheric wave propagation and breaking, barotropic mechanisms. A variety of climate change–like thermal forcings are used to generate a range of meridional shifts in the midlatitude eddy-driven jet. The idealized model shows a reduction in annular mode time scale associated with an increase in jet latitude, similar to comprehensive climate models. This decrease in time scale can be attributed to a similar decrease in the strength of the barotropic eddy feedback, which, in the positive phase of the annular mode, is characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV) mixing on the equatorward flank of the climatological jet. The decrease in subtropical PV mixing is, in turn, associated with a stronger subtropical jet as the eddy-driven jet is more distant from the subtropics. These results highlight the importance of subtropical eddy–mean flow interactions for the persistence of an eddy-driven jet.

scholarly journals The impact of elite frames and motivated reasoning on beliefs in a global warming conspiracy: The promise and limits of trust

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 205316801771760 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle L Saunders
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Anthropogenic Global Warming ◽  
The Face ◽  
Conspiracy Beliefs ◽  
Original Question ◽  
Behavioral Impact ◽  
The Impact

Given the potential attitudinal and behavioral impact of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) conspiracy beliefs, it is important to understand their causes and moderators. Here, two explanations for the variation in these beliefs are engaged: the first is the choice among elites to frame AGW using the phrase ‘global warming’ (GW) as opposed to ‘climate change’ (CC); the second is partisan motivated reasoning. A theory is then developed about the role of trust in moderating the impact of the two frames on AGW conspiracy beliefs. In the case of CC, which is perceived as less severe than GW (and is therefore less identity threatening among Republicans), it is hypothesized that trust will moderate hoax beliefs among Republicans. In the case of GW, where the implications of existence beliefs have policy consequences that are more unpleasant, motivated reasoning will ‘win out’, and trust will not moderate conspiracy endorsement among Republicans. The results from an original question framing experiment are consistent with the author’s hypotheses. Whilst trust is a welcome commodity to those looking to persuade citizens to support AGW-ameliorating policies, it is not a cure-all, especially in the face of elite partisan cues that edify pre-existing attitudes/identities and arouse a strong desire to engage in motivated reasoning.

Climate Change effects on the River Discharge in Bulgaria

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Local Version ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Global Atmospheric Model ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of future climate change under IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 on hydrological regimes in plain catchments up to 650 m high and in mountainous areas of Bulgaria is discussed. A hydrological simulation models (TUWmodel) were calibrated on recorded data and ‘forced’ in the selected scenarios with precipitation and air temperature data from ALADIN 5.2, a local version of the French global atmospheric model ARPEGE, downscaled to a grid of 12 km. Simulations for the future periods 2013-2042, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 are compared to the flows in the reference period 1976-2005.</p><p>Results indicate increased seasonality of flows, with noticeably drier summers and increase of river discharge in winter. In most of the cases the analysis of extreme events suggests significant increases in the frequency of both high‐ and low‐flow events. The change in the extreme runoff with a large repetition period required for the design of flood protection structures and systems has been investigated in regions with different mechanisms for flood generation. With the push of RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenarios the significant increase in flood peaks is observed in most of the river basins. There is a general trend of decreasing runoff with a 95% probability of exceedance.</p>

Global Megatrends and the Macroeconomics of Gender

2019 ◽  
pp. 417-435
Author(s):  
Kalpana Kochhar ◽  
Sonali Jain-Chandra ◽  
Monique Newiak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Gender Equality ◽  
Gender Equity ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Demographic Shifts ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Impact

This chapter examines global megatrends such as demographic shifts, technological progress, globalization, and climate change and emphasizes the important role of gender equality in mitigating their adverse consequences. The chapter first discusses demographic change, globalization, technological progress, and climate change before explaining how the main challenges posed by these megatrends could be offset by increasing gender equality, providing more equal access to economic opportunities for women, and boosting female economic participation. In particular, it considers ways of mitigating the impact of population ageing, harnessing urbanization for growth and gender equity, catalysing change to reduce income inequality, accelerating economic diversification, and mitigating vulnerability to climate change. The chapter concludes with an evaluation of policy options for mitigating the risks posed by megatrends through gender equality, such as unleashing fiscal policy, easing the burden of non-market work, and removing legal discrimination against women.

scholarly journals Streamflow hydrology in the boreal region under the influences of climate and human interference

2007 ◽  
Vol 363 (1501) ◽  
pp. 2249-2258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-ko Woo ◽  
Robin Thorne ◽  
Kit Szeto ◽  
Daqing Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Boreal Region ◽  
Spring Freshet ◽  
Subarctic Climate ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The boreal region has a subarctic climate that is subject to considerable inter-annual variability and is prone to impacts of future warming. Climate influences the seasonal streamflow regime which typically exhibits winter low flow, terminated by spring freshet, followed by summer flow recession. The effects of climatic variation on streamflow cannot be isolated with confidence but the impact of human regulation of rivers can greatly alter the natural flow rhythm, changing the timing of flow to suit human demands. The effect of scenario climate change on streamflow is explored through hydrological simulation. Example of a Canadian basin under warming scenario suggests that winter flow will increase, spring freshet dates will advance but peak flow will decline, as will summer flow due to enhanced evaporation. While this simulation was site specific, the results are qualitatively applicable to other boreal areas. Future studies should consider the role of human activities as their impacts on streamflow will be more profound than those due to climate change.

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