scholarly journals Modeling Coronavirus Pandemic Using Univariate and Multivariate Models: The Nigerian Perspective

2021 ◽  
pp. 134-143
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Adamu ◽  
Chukwudi Justin Ogbonna ◽  
Yunusa Adamu ◽  
Yahaya Zakari
Keyword(s):  
Task Force ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Multivariate Models ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Stationary Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Death Cases

Corona virus Disease, a disease which was discovered in December, 2019 has been spreading worldwide like wildfire. In view of this, there is need of continuous findings on the impact, consequence and possible medications of the pandemic in Nigeria and the world at large. Therefore, this research is aimed at Analyzing the spread of Coronavirus pandemic in Nigeria, using univariate and multivariate models namely;(ARIMA) and (ARIMAX). The daily data used in this research was obtained from the NCDC official website dated from 19th April, 2020 to 20th April, 2021 with total of 384 observations using R and Eview10 software for the analysis. Three different variables were examined. The variables are; total confirmed, discharged and death cases for the purpose of establishing reliable forecast, for better decision making and a helping technique for drastic action in reducing the day to day spread of the pandemic. Summary statistics and stationary test were checked with the data being stationary at the first difference and design technique was conducted as well. Also, best fitted model was selected using Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). The ARIMA (1,1,3) model with an exogenous variable was chosen from the ARIMA models with minimum AIC. From the model, a prediction of sixty-days forecast showed the upward trend of the total confirmed cases of the pandemic in the country. The government on its part via its task force can use the predicted line to take much necessary measures and emphases on taking COVID-19 vaccines so as to prevent further spread of the virus

The RUMA Alliance targets: an overview

Livestock ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 176-179
Author(s):  
Chris Lloyd
Keyword(s):  
Task Force ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
Codes Of Practice ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Ongoing Support ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Roll Out

The Responsible Use of Medicines in Agriculture Alliance (RUMA) was established to promote the highest standards of food safety, animal health and animal welfare in the British livestock industry. It has a current focus to deliver on the Government objective of identifying sector-specific targets for the reduction, refinement or replacement of antibiotics in animal agriculture. The creation and roll out of sector specific targets in 2017 through the RUMA Targets Task Force, has helped focus activity across the UK livestock sectors to achieve a 50% reduction in antibiotic use since 2014. This has been realised principally through voluntary multi-sector collaboration, cross sector initiatives, codes of practice, industry body support and farm assurance schemes. This article provides an overview of RUMA's work to date providing insight into the methods used to create the targets, why they are so important, the impact they are having and how ongoing support and robust data are vital components in achieving the latest set of targets.

scholarly journals Rekomendasi Kebijakan Pemulihan Pariwisata Pasca Wabah Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) di Kota Bandung

2020 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Dian Herdiana
Keyword(s):  
Model Building ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Organizational Capacity ◽  
Community Empowerment ◽  
City Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

COVID-19 is a pandemic disease that has infected many cities in Indonesia, the impact caused by the spread of COVID-19 involves many aspects including economic, social, cultural, tourism and many more. Based on the problems mentioned above, this article is intended to describe the impact of COVID-19 on tourism in the city of Bandung which is one of the tourism city in the province of West Java, this article is also intended to recommend what policy should be made by the government of the Bandung City to restore tourism to the condition before the COVID-19 outbreak. This study uses a model building method with a descriptive analysis approach. The results revealed that tourism is one of the sectors most affected by the COVID-19 outbreak in the city of Bandung, efforts to restore tourism from COVID-19 must be comprehensive and sustainable. Bandung City Government and tourism entrepreneurs are demanded to carry out communication and coordination to develop tourism recovery policy instruments which include internal recovery efforts such as disaster management, organizational capacity building and external recovery efforts such as tourism relaxation policy and tourism promotion. Keywords: Village Tourism, Community, Empowerment, Development

scholarly journals ANALISIS YURIDIS TERHADAP KEBIJAKAN PEMERINTAH MENGENAI PENANGANAN PANDEMI VIRUS CORONA DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) DI INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 46-58
Author(s):  
Anwar Hidayat ◽  
Budiman
Keyword(s):  
Research Method ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Legal Research ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Perkembangan pandemi Covid-19 saat ini sangat mengkhawatirkan dimana terjadinya suatupeningkatan kasus corona khusus di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahuidan menganalisis kebijakan yang diambil pemerintah dalam penanganan pandemi Covid-19serta langkah-langkah yang diambil pemerintah untuk menganggulangi dampak-dampak, terutama dampak dari segi ekonomi dan sosial akibat pandemi Covid-19. Metode penelitianhukum yang digunakan yakni metode penelitian hukum normatif. Adapun pendekatan yangdigunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pendekatan perundang-undangan dan pendekatankonseptual. Penelitian ini berlandaskan pengaturan perundang-undangan yang mengaturmengenai penanganan dan penganggulangan pandemi Covid-19 serta analisis atas konseppenetapan peraturan perundang-undangan tersebut. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah dalamrangka penanganan Covid-19, berawal dari pemerintah tmengeluarkan kebijakan tentangPembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar yang merujuk pada Undang-Undang Nomor 6 Tahun2018 tentang Kekarantinaan Kesehatan. Peraturan pelaksanaannya yaitu PeraturanPemerintah Nomor 21 Tahun 2020 tentang Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar, sertaKeputusan Presiden tentang Kedaruratan Kesehatan sampai dengan saat ini pemerintah telahmengeluarkan kebijakan PPKM yang dimana dilakukan secara berkala. Untukmenganggulangi dampak Covid-19 dari segi ekonomi dan sosial pemerintah mengambilbeberapa kebijakan-kebijakan, yang diantaranya adalah: Peraturan Menteri KeuanganRepublik Indonesia Nomor 23/Pmk.03/2020 tentang Insentif Pajak Untuk WajibPajakTerdampak Wabah Virus Corona; Peraturan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan Republik Indonesia Kata Kunci : Kebijakan, Penanganan, Covid-19 The current development of the Covid-19 pandemic is very worrying where there is anincrease in special corona cases in Indonesia. This study aims to identify and analyze thepolicies taken by the government in handling the Covid-19 pandemic and the steps taken bythe government to mitigate the impacts, especially the economic and social impacts of theCovid-19 pandemic. The legal research method used is the normative legal research method. The approach used in this research is a statutory approach and a conceptual approach. Thisresearch is based on the legislation governing the handling and handling of the Covid-19pandemic as well as an analysis of the concept of establishing these laws and regulations. The results of this study are in the context of handling Covid-19, starting with thegovernment issuing a policy on Large-Scale Social Restrictions which refers to Law Number6 of 2018 concerning Health Quarantine. The implementing regulations are GovernmentRegulation Number 21 of 2020 concerning Large-Scale Social Restrictions, as well as thePresidential Decree on Health Emergencies. Until now, the government has issued a PPKMpolicy which is carried out regularly. To address the economic and social impact of Covid- 19, the government has taken several policies, including: Regulation of the Minister ofFinance of the Republic of Indonesia Number 23/Pmk.03/2020 concerning Tax Incentives forTaxpayers Af ected by the Corona Virus Outbreak; Regulation of the Financial ServicesAuthority of the Republic of Indonesia Number 11 /Pojk.03/2020 concerning NationalEconomic Stimulus as a Countercyclical Policy for the Impact of the Spread of Corona VirusDisease2019; and Instruction of the President of the Republic of Indonesia Number 4 of2020 concerning Refocussing of Activities, Reallocation of Budgets, and Procurement ofGoods and Services in the Context of Accelerating Handling of Corona Virus Disease 2019(Covid-19). Keyword : Policy, Handling, Covid-19

scholarly journals Impact of Selected Economic Indicators on Foreign Investment Inflow in Nigeria and South Africa: Optimal Indicators Search

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 39-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Onuorah Anastasia Chi-Chi ◽  
Nzotta Samuel Mbadike ◽  
Ozurumba Benedict Anayachukwu ◽  
Chigbu Emmanuel Ezeji
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Development Model ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Search for ways of attracting foreign investment into developing countries raises great interest among researchers and therefore, there is a search for the economic indicators affecting foreign investment appeal in Africa. This study focuses on the impact of economic indicators of Banking Sector Development Model on foreign investment inflows in Nigeria and South Africa. Various data on banking sector; economic indicators of the classified model were sourced from state statistical bulletins as well as World Bank for the year of 1980-2013. The analysis employed several econometric tools: Unit root, Co-integration, VAR estimates of relative and global statistics to measure the impact and significance of economic indicators attracting/repelling foreign investments. Akaike information criteria for best model selection results showed that economic indicators of Banking Sector Development Model in Nigeria attracted more foreign investment than it did in South Africa. The study concluded that the optimal economic indicators attracting foreign investment are domestic credit and inflation rate. Therefore, the study recommended that effort is highly needed by the government to promote sustainable domestic credit facilities to local industries to attract foreign investment and there should be proactive efficient interest rate control to encourage loans and advances in these two countries.

scholarly journals The Impact of Covid-19 on the Development of Various Business Sectors

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 319-326
Author(s):  
Sunarmin Sunarmin ◽  
Ahmad Junaidi ◽  
Endah Fantini
Keyword(s):  
Public Transportation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Religious Activities ◽  
Business World ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Government ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
The Impact

Outbreaks of the new corona virus or Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) are increasingly felt in the domestic economy, especially in terms of consumption, corporate, financial sector, and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). The existence of Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) that has been declared by the government most of the activities involving the public are restricted, such as offices or offices that are closed, restrictions on religious activities and restrictions on public transportation. The business world has not been separated from the shadows of the Corona Covid-19 pandemic. Instead of diminishing, some countries have confirmed that they will experience a second wave of pandemic that began in Wuhan, China. The purpose of this study is to find out whether the impact of Covid-19 will have a widespread effect on business entities and the sustainability of business entities. This research is a descriptive study, using the literature method where research is conducted by studying and collecting data from libraries related to tools, both in the form of journals and scientific studies of research that has been published in public journals. The results of the study concluded that the impact on Covid-19 had a significant influence on the development of the business world. The biggest influences occur in the mall/supermarket, hospitality, manufacturing and various businesses related to the use of mass labor. In this study, not many scientific writers have focused on examining the impact of this 19 on the business world in general. Although the fact in the field of influence of Covid-19 is clearly seen the fact in the life of the wider community due to many businesses limit / lay off and even deduct workers' income from the value of income received.

scholarly journals Analisis Kebijakan Penanganan Wabah Covid-19: Pengalaman Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-270
Author(s):  
Leo Agustino
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Government ◽  
Data Collection Technique ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Weak Coordination

This article discusses the efforts of the Indonesian Government in handling the outbreak of Corona Virus Disease-19 (COVID-19). The handling strategies assessed by understanding the efforts, steps, and policies formulated and implemented by the government while the analysis used a deliberative policy analysis approach was used. This approach analyzes the narratives and arguments of the authorities to understand the decision making and policy implementation. The research used a qualitative approach by utilizing descriptive analysis methods. Then the data collection technique used literature studies. The findings found that, first, negative narratives and the slow response of the government. Before COVID-19 approached Indonesia, narratives delivered by the elite government showed that there was no sense of crisis so that it slow-down decision making. Second, weak coordination, especially between the central government and regional governments. This asynchronous coordination created uncertain handling for the control of Coronavirus. Third, citizen ignorance or disobey government instruction. The impact is, the handling effort has stalled because it is not supported by the wider community. The combination of these three factors complicates the government's efforts to control the outbreak of COVID-19 in Indonesia. Keywords: Indonesia, COVID-19, Coronavirus, Handling, Policy Abstrak Artikel ini mendiskusikan mengenai upaya Pemerintah Indonesia dalam menangani kasus penyebaran virus korona (Corona Virus Disease-19 (COVID-19). Dengan memahami upaya, langkah, dan kebijakan yang diformulasi dan diimplementasikan oleh pemerintah maka dapat dinilai strategi penanganan tersebut. Untuk menganalisis kasus ini, pendekatan deliberative policy analysis digunakan. Pendekatan ini menganalisis narasi dan argumentasi pihak berwenang untuk memahami pembuatan keputusan dan pelaksanaan kebijakan. Penulisan artikel ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dengan memanfaatkan metode deskriptif analisis. Sementara itu, teknik pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah studi kepustakaan yang memanfaatkan buku, artikel jurnal, surat kabar, berita online, serta website lembaga-lembaga otoritatif. Temuan penting dari tulisan ini adalah, pertama, narasi negatif dan lambannya respons pemerintah atas penyebaran COVID-19. Narasi-narasi yang disampaikan oleh elite politik sebelum COVID-19 masuk ke Indonesia menunjukkan nihilnya perasaan adanya krisis (sense of crisis) yang mengancam sehingga memperlambat pengambilan keputusan. Kedua, lemahnya koordinasi antar-stakeholder, khususnya antara pemerintah pusat dan pemerintah daerah. Ketidaksinkronan koordinasi ini mengakibatkan pengendalian virus korona menjadi terkatung-katung. Ketiga, ketidakacuhan atau ketidakpatuhan warga atas himbauan pemerintah. Impaknya, upaya penanganan menjadi tersendat karena tidak didukung oleh masyarakat luas. Kombinasi dari ketiga faktor inilah yang memperumit upaya pemerintah untuk mengendalikan penyebaran COVID-19 di Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Indonesia, COVID-19, Virus Korona, Penanganan, Kebijakan

Optimalisasi Peran Perempuan Sebagai Strategi Alternatif Kebijakan Publik Dalam Menekan Penyebaran Pandemi Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 723-736
Author(s):  
Ida Susilowati ◽  
Fadhlan Nur Hakiem
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Health Security ◽  
Role Of Women ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCorona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been a hot topic since the end of 2019.  The virus, which was first discovered in Wuhan, has become a global security pandemic, namely health security that has an impact on economic security. The significance of the increase in covid-19 cases cannot be underestimated because it has caused hundreds of thousands of victims to die in approximately 6 months. Various national policies are implemented in each country to deal with it. This article seeks to present alternative policies for the government through a bottom up pattern, namely through the strength of civil society as the impact of the pandemic, which is integrated with local government policies, considering society as the foundation of a country's strength. The role of civil society here is focused on the role of women as one of the strategic agents of public policy dissemination, to increase public awareness of Covid-19 as an effort to reduce the number of Covid-19 cases. Women are considered to be able to play a dual role in a pandemic situation and have a strategic role through their families in increasing public awareness of Covid-19. So that by optimizing the role of women, it is hoped that they will be able to help the government in reducing the number of Covid-19 cases.Keywords: Role of Women, Covid-19 Pandemic, Alternative Policy, Civil Society AbstrakCorona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) menjadi trending topik sejak akhir 2019 hingga saat ini. Virus yang pertama kali ditemukan di Wuhan ini menjadi sebuah pandemi keamanan global, yaitu keamanan kesehatan yang berdampak terhadap keamanan ekonomi. Signifikansi peningkatan kasus covid-19 menjadi hal yang tidak dapat dianggap remeh karena telah menyebabkan ratusan ribu korban meninggal dalam waktu kurang lebih 6 bulan. Berbagai kebijakan nasional diterapkan di setiap negara untuk menghadapinya. Artikel ini berusaha untuk menyuguhkan kebijakan alternatif bagi pemerintah melalui pola bottom up, yaitu melalui kekuatan masyarakat sipil sebagai terdampak pandemi, yang diintegrasikan dengan kebijakan pemerintah setempat, mengingat masyarakat sebagai pondasi kekuatan suatu negara. Peran civil society disini difokuskan pada peran perempuan sebagai salah satu agen strategis sosialisasi kebijakan publik, untuk meningkatkan kesadaran masyarakat terhadap covid-19 sebagai upaya menekan angka kasus covid-19. Perempuan dinilai mampu berperan ganda dalam situasi pandemi dan memiliki peran strategis melalui keluarga dalam meningkatkan kesadaran masyarakat terhadap covid-19. Sehingga dengan mengoptimalkan peran perempuan, diharap mampu membantu pemerintah dalam menekan angka kasus covid-19.Kata Kunci: Peran Perempuan, Pandemi Covid-19, Kebijakan Alternatif, Civil Society

scholarly journals Impact of lockdown measures in abating the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from India’s phased approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Singh ◽  
K Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Public ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020 and characterized the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as a pandemic on 11 March 2020. India enacted such measures early on for effective mitigation and suppression to reduce community transmission, including an onerous national lockdown. The impact of the health system governance is quite apparent among all stakeholders including the public in such emergency contexts. Methods We compiled the daily data on the number of COVID-19 cases, recoveries and deaths from January 30th until June 16th, 2020. Different stages were categorized from post PHEIC declaration (pre-lockdown) phase to lockdown phases and unlocking phase as implemented. The several measures adopted by the national government were structured in four broad categories as Governance and socioeconomic, travel restrictions, lockdown and public health measures. These measures were compared during each phase. Results It was revealed that while the cases are rising the phased restrictions has helped in delaying the peak and remarkably interrupted the rate of transmission. The national average doubling rate was 3 days at the beginning which improved to 22 days. The basic reproduction number remained close to 1 during the last week of lockdown. However, the initial interruption of needed aid and technical support had negative social and economic impacts on the affected population. Conclusions As the situation abates following the measures adopted by the government, an articulate strategy of unlocking through increased testing and prompt isolation needs to be developed for more effective reduction and protecting the livelihoods allowing to further relax the lockdown measures. Key messages There is need for the local government to consider a strategic easing of the lockdown for protecting the rights of the most affected population. As the transmission rates are low, the easing of lockdown can be benefited from improved testing and prompt isolation.

scholarly journals Analisis Kesesuaian Penerima dan Penggunaan Dana Bantuan Sosial Pandemi Covid-19 pada Masyarakat Gampong Sapik dan Gampong Air Berudang, Aceh Selatan

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-23
Author(s):  
Suci Fitria Citra ◽  
Tari Muzalifah ◽  
Lukman Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Social Assistance ◽  
Cash Assistance ◽  
The People ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Incorrect Data

This research aims to describe the accuracy in the distribution of social assistance during Covid-19 to the people of Gampong Sapik and Air Berudang. It uses a case study with a qualitative approach. Data collection was carried out by observation, interview, and analysis using thematic techniques. The distribution of social assistance has received a positive response from the community because it can help the economy of residents in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, even though there are several polemics that have occurred due to incorrect data used and several other obstacles. Based on the Decree of the Minister of Social Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia Number 54 / HUK / 2020 regarding the Implementation of Basic Food Social Assistance and Social Cash Assistance in Handling the Impact of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19), the Government realizes social assistance to people affected by Covid-19 which involves the Central Government, regional governments and heads of villages in distributing it to the community.

The Effect of Covid-19 Pandemic on Stock Returns: An Evidence of Indonesia Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-37
Author(s):  
Ajeng Mugiarni ◽  
Permata Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
Health Related ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Death Cases

The pandemic Covid-19 caused panic not only in health sectors but also weakened the world’s economy. The stock market, as one of the barometers of the economy, was hit by the pandemic Covid-19. The impact of Covid-19 on the stock market provides a signal for investors. Stock returns are what investors look for when investing in stocks. Returns on the stock exchange respond to several events, one of which is the news about health related to the Covid-19 pandemic. This study aims to seek whether the Covid-19 outbreak affects stock returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Using daily data of Covid-19 confirmed case, daily data of Covid-19 death cases, and stock returns data in Indonesia from January 2, 2020, to December 31, 2020. The panel-data regression model is used to estimate the result of the study. This study shows that stock returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange respond negatively significantly as the number of confirmed cases increases also stock returns in Indonesia respond negatively significantly to the daily growth of death cases. This study also finds that stock return in consumer goods and basic chemical industry were the impacted industries caused by pandemic Covid-19. Empirical findings could be used for the practitioner to consider investing in the stock market to avoid the significant impact of such outbreaks in the future.

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