Productive Pacifists: The Rise of Production-Oriented States and Decline of Profit-Motivated Conquest

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 558-572
Author(s):  
Jonathan N Markowitz ◽  
Suzie Mulesky ◽  
Benjamin A T Graham ◽  
Christopher J Fariss
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Land Rent ◽  
Economic Preference ◽  
Territorial Control ◽  
Robust Evidence ◽  
Global Reduction ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Scholarship suggests the profits from conquest have decreased over time. Given this, why were some states faster to abandon profit-motivated conquest, and why are some still seeking wealth from territorial control? We argue that land-rent dependence influences a regime's economic preference for territory. The more a state depends on rents extracted from land (i.e., the more land-oriented the economy), the greater its willingness to invest in securing control of territory. We develop a novel measure of land orientation, with 200 years of data, to evaluate the linkages between land orientation and military competition over territory. Across 160 regression models, we find robust evidence that land orientation predicts territorial competition. These results hold in both democracies and autocracies. The global reduction in land-oriented states offers a plausible explanation for the decline in the number of large-scale territorial conquests. Our findings also explain why some states retain strong economic motivations for conquest.

scholarly journals Integrating Xpert MTB/RIF for TB diagnosis in the private sector: evidence from large-scale pilots in Patna and Mumbai, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarang Deo ◽  
Pankaj Jindal ◽  
Sirisha Papineni
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Provider Behavior ◽  
Private Providers ◽  
Private Sector Engagement ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) has been recommended by WHO as the initial diagnostic test for TB and rifampicin-resistance detection. Existing evidence regarding its uptake is limited to public health systems and corresponding resource and infrastructure challenges. It cannot be readily extended to private providers, who treat more than half of India’s TB cases and demonstrate complex diagnostic behavior. Methods We used routine program data collected from November 2014 to April 2017 from large-scale private sector engagement pilots in Mumbai and Patna. It included diagnostic vouchers issued to approximately 150,000 patients by about 1400 providers, aggregated to 18,890 provider-month observations. We constructed three metrics to capture provider behavior with regards to adoption of Xpert and studied their longitudinal variation: (i) Uptake (ordering of test), (ii) Utilization for TB diagnosis, and (iii) Non-adherence to negative results. We estimated multivariate linear regression models to assess heterogeneity in provider behavior based on providers’ prior experience and Xpert testing volumes. Results Uptake of Xpert increased considerably in both Mumbai (from 36 to 60.4%) and Patna (from 12.2 to 45.1%). However, utilization of Xpert for TB diagnosis and non-adherence to negative Xpert results did not show systematic trends over time. In regression models, cumulative number of Xpert tests ordered was significantly associated with Xpert uptake in Patna and utilization for diagnosis in Mumbai (p-value< 0.01). Uptake of Xpert and its utilization for diagnosis was predicted to be higher in high-volume providers compared to low-volume providers and this gap was predicted to widen over time. Conclusions Private sector engagement led to substantial increase in uptake of Xpert, especially among high-volume providers, but did not show strong evidence of Xpert results being integrated with TB diagnosis. Increasing availability and affordability of a technically superior diagnostic tool may not be sufficient to fundamentally change diagnosis and treatment of TB in the private sector. Behavioral interventions, specifically aimed at, integrating Xpert results into clinical decision making of private providers may be required to impact patient-level outcomes.

scholarly journals Analysis of 220 Years of Floodplain Population Dynamics in the US at Different Spatial Scales

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Firoza Akhter ◽  
Maurizio Mazzoleni ◽  
Luigia Brandimarte
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
The Us ◽  
Over Time

In this study, we explore the long-term trends of floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales in the contiguous United States (U.S.). We exploit different types of datasets from 1790–2010—i.e., decadal spatial distribution for the population density in the US, global floodplains dataset, large-scale data of flood occurrence and damage, and structural and nonstructural flood protection measures for the US. At the national level, we found that the population initially settled down within the floodplains and then spread across its territory over time. At the state level, we observed that flood damages and national protection measures might have contributed to a learning effect, which in turn, shaped the floodplain population dynamics over time. Finally, at the county level, other socio-economic factors such as local flood insurances, economic activities, and socio-political context may predominantly influence the dynamics. Our study shows that different influencing factors affect floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales. These facts are crucial for a reliable development and implementation of flood risk management planning.

scholarly journals Investigating the Relationship Between Emotion Recognition Software and Usability Metrics

i-com ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-151
Author(s):  
Thomas Schmidt ◽  
Miriam Schlindwein ◽  
Katharina Lichtner ◽  
Christian Wolff
Keyword(s):  
Emotion Recognition ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Affective Computing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
General Purpose ◽  
Thinking Aloud ◽  
Continue Research ◽  
Usability Metrics ◽  
Recognition Software ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractDue to progress in affective computing, various forms of general purpose sentiment/emotion recognition software have become available. However, the application of such tools in usability engineering (UE) for measuring the emotional state of participants is rarely employed. We investigate if the application of sentiment/emotion recognition software is beneficial for gathering objective and intuitive data that can predict usability similar to traditional usability metrics. We present the results of a UE project examining this question for the three modalities text, speech and face. We perform a large scale usability test (N = 125) with a counterbalanced within-subject design with two websites of varying usability. We have identified a weak but significant correlation between text-based sentiment analysis on the text acquired via thinking aloud and SUS scores as well as a weak positive correlation between the proportion of neutrality in users’ voice and SUS scores. However, for the majority of the output of emotion recognition software, we could not find any significant results. Emotion metrics could not be used to successfully differentiate between two websites of varying usability. Regression models, either unimodal or multimodal could not predict usability metrics. We discuss reasons for these results and how to continue research with more sophisticated methods.

scholarly journals China’s Investments in Germany and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-119
Author(s):  
Xinming Xia ◽  
Wan-Hsin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Know How ◽  
Advanced Technologies ◽  
The Future ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Chinese State ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Gain Access ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThis paper analyses how China’s investments in Germany have developed over time and the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in this regard, based on four different datasets, including our own survey in mid-2020. Our analysis shows that Germany is currently one of the most attractive investment destinations for Chinese investors. Chinese state-owned enterprises have played an important role as investors in Germany — particularly in large-scale projects. The COVID-19 pandemic has had some negative but rather temporary effects on Chinese investments in Germany. Germany is expected to stay attractive to Chinese investors who seek to gain access to advanced technologies and know-how in the future.

Pioneers in International Administration: A Prosopography of the Directors of the League of Nations Secretariat

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 190-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torsten Kahlert
Keyword(s):  
International Organizations ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Second World War ◽  
League Of Nations ◽  
World War ◽  
Clear Trend ◽  
Organizational Contexts ◽  
Career Trajectories ◽  
Second World ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThis article investigates interwar internationalism from the perspective of the highest personnel of the first large-scale international administration, the League of Nations Secretariat. It applies a prosopographical approach in order to map out the development of the composition of the group of the section directors of the Secretariat over time in terms of its social and cultural characteristics and career trajectories. The analysis of gender, age, nationality, as well as educational and professional backgrounds and careers after their service for the League’s Secretariat gives insight on how this group changed over time and what it tells us about interwar internationalism. I have three key findings to offer in this article: First, the Secretariat was far from being a static organization. On the contrary, the Secretariat’s directors developed in three generations each with distinct characteristics. Second, my analysis demonstrates a clear trend towards professionalization and growing maturity of the administration over time. Third, the careers of the directors show a clear pattern of continuity across the Second World War and beyond. Even though the careers continued in different organizational contexts, the majority of the directors remained closely connected to the world of internationalism of the League, the UN world and its surrounding organizations. On a methodological level, the article offers an example of how prosopographical analysis can be used to study international organizations.

A Framework and Case Study for Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment of Incrementally Expanding Buildings

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1369-1384 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lallemant ◽  
Henry Burton ◽  
Luis Ceferino ◽  
Zach Bullock ◽  
Anne Kiremidjian
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Building Construction ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Earthquake Vulnerability ◽  
Valley Area ◽  
Common Understanding ◽  
Dynamic Structural Analysis ◽  
Neighborhood Level ◽  
Over Time

This study proposes a framework for incorporating time-dependent fragility into large-scale risk assessment models, focusing on incremental building expansion as a significant driver of changes in vulnerability. In rapidly urbanizing areas in developing countries, the pay-as-you-go process of informal building construction and staged expansion is the de facto pattern of growth. While there is a common understanding that such expansions increase the earthquake vulnerability of buildings, this study proposes a framework to model and quantify this increase. Vulnerability curves are developed through incremental dynamic structural analysis for common building expansion typologies. Building expansions are modeled as Markov chain processes and used to simulate stochastic expansion sequences over a building's lifetime. The model is then used to simulate a hypothetical neighborhood in the Kathmandu valley area to understand neighborhood-level risk over time. The study provides a new methodology to analyze changing seismic risk over time, driven by any building modification that impacts the building's vulnerability (incremental expansion, deterioration, retrofit, etc.).

scholarly journals Rapid Spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in Southern Italy (December 2020–March 2021)

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4766
Author(s):  
Daniela Loconsole ◽  
Francesca Centrone ◽  
Caterina Morcavallo ◽  
Silvia Campanella ◽  
Anna Sallustio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Whole Genome ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Gene Target ◽  
The Third ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Over Time

Epidemiological and virological studies have revealed that SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) are emerging globally, including in Europe. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spread of B.1.1.7-lineage SARS-CoV-2 in southern Italy from December 2020–March 2021 through the detection of the S gene target failure (SGTF), which could be considered a robust proxy of VOC B.1.1.7. SGTF was assessed on 3075 samples from week 52/2020 to week 10/2021. A subset of positive samples identified in the Apulia region during the study period was subjected to whole-genome sequencing (WGS). A descriptive and statistical analysis of the demographic and clinical characteristics of cases according to SGTF status was performed. Overall, 20.2% of samples showed SGTF; 155 strains were confirmed as VOC 202012/01 by WGS. The proportion of SGTF-positive samples rapidly increased over time, reaching 69.2% in week 10/2021. SGTF-positive cases were more likely to be symptomatic and to result in hospitalization (p < 0.0001). Despite the implementation of large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as the closure of schools and local lockdowns, a rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 was observed in southern Italy. Strengthened NPIs and rapid vaccine deployment, first among priority groups and then among the general population, are crucial both to contain the spread of VOC 202012/01 and to flatten the curve of the third wave.

scholarly journals Kinetically driven successive sodic and potassic alteration of feldspar

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gan Duan ◽  
Rahul Ram ◽  
Yanlu Xing ◽  
Barbara Etschmann ◽  
Joël Brugger
Keyword(s):  
Hydrothermal Fluid ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ore Deposits ◽  
Potassic Alteration ◽  
Positive Feedbacks ◽  
Micro Scale ◽  
Equilibrium Reaction ◽  
Earth's Crust ◽  
Mineral Transformations ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe dynamic evolutions of fluid-mineral systems driving large-scale geochemical transformations in the Earth’s crust remain poorly understood. We observed experimentally that successive sodic and potassic alterations of feldspar can occur via a single self-evolved, originally Na-only, hydrothermal fluid. At 600 °C, 2 kbar, sanidine ((K,Na)AlSi3O8) reacted rapidly with a NaCl fluid to form albite (NaAlSi3O8); over time, some of this albite was replaced by K-feldspar (KAlSi3O8), in contrast to predictions from equilibrium reaction modelling. Fluorine accelerated the process, resulting in near-complete back-replacement of albite within 1 day. These findings reveal that potassic alteration can be triggered by Na-rich fluids, indicating that pervasive sequential sodic and potassic alterations associated with mineralization in some of the world’s largest ore deposits may not necessarily reflect externally-driven changes in fluid alkali contents. Here, we show that these reactions are promoted at the micro-scale by a self-evolving, kinetically-driven process; such positive feedbacks between equilibrium and kinetic factors may be essential in driving pervasive mineral transformations.

45 Application of Machine Learning Models to Thermal Burn Patient Outcome Predictions in the Aftermath of a Nuclear Event

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S33-S34
Author(s):  
Morgan A Taylor ◽  
Randy D Kearns ◽  
Jeffrey E Carter ◽  
Mark H Ebell ◽  
Curt A Harris
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Burn Patients ◽  
Thermal Burn ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Burn Patient

Abstract Introduction A nuclear disaster would generate an unprecedented volume of thermal burn patients from the explosion and subsequent mass fires (Figure 1). Prediction models characterizing outcomes for these patients may better equip healthcare providers and other responders to manage large scale nuclear events. Logistic regression models have traditionally been employed to develop prediction scores for mortality of all burn patients. However, other healthcare disciplines have increasingly transitioned to machine learning (ML) models, which are automatically generated and continually improved, potentially increasing predictive accuracy. Preliminary research suggests ML models can predict burn patient mortality more accurately than commonly used prediction scores. The purpose of this study is to examine the efficacy of various ML methods in assessing thermal burn patient mortality and length of stay in burn centers. Methods This retrospective study identified patients with fire/flame burn etiologies in the National Burn Repository between the years 2009 – 2018. Patients were randomly partitioned into a 67%/33% split for training and validation. A random forest model (RF) and an artificial neural network (ANN) were then constructed for each outcome, mortality and length of stay. These models were then compared to logistic regression models and previously developed prediction tools with similar outcomes using a combination of classification and regression metrics. Results During the study period, 82,404 burn patients with a thermal etiology were identified in the analysis. The ANN models will likely tend to overfit the data, which can be resolved by ending the model training early or adding additional regularization parameters. Further exploration of the advantages and limitations of these models is forthcoming as metric analyses become available. Conclusions In this proof-of-concept study, we anticipate that at least one ML model will predict the targeted outcomes of thermal burn patient mortality and length of stay as judged by the fidelity with which it matches the logistic regression analysis. These advancements can then help disaster preparedness programs consider resource limitations during catastrophic incidents resulting in burn injuries.

Disparity and Dynamics of Social Distancing Behaviors in Japan: An Investigation of mobile phone mobility data (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeyu Lyu ◽  
Hiroki Takikawa
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Over Time

BACKGROUND The availability of large-scale and fine-grained aggregated mobility data has allowed researchers to observe the dynamic of social distancing behaviors at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Despite the increasing attentions paid to this research agenda, limited studies have focused on the demographic factors related to mobility and the dynamics of social distancing behaviors has not been fully investigated. OBJECTIVE This study aims to assist in the design and implementation of public health policies by exploring the social distancing behaviors among various demographic groups over time. METHODS We combined several data sources, including mobile tracking data and geographical statistics, to estimate visiting population of entertainment venues across demographic groups, which can be considered as the proxy of social distancing behaviors. Then, we employed time series analyze methods to investigate how voluntary and policy-induced social distancing behaviors shift over time across demographic groups. RESULTS Our findings demonstrate distinct patterns of social distancing behaviors and their dynamics across age groups. The population in the entertainment venues comprised mainly of individuals aged 20–40 years, while according to the dynamics of the mobility index and the policy-induced behavior, among the age groups, the extent of reduction of the frequency of visiting entertainment venues during the pandemic was generally the highest among younger individuals. Also, our results indicate the importance of implementing the social distancing policy promptly to limit the spread of the COVID-19 infection. However, it should be noticed that although the policy intervention during the second wave in Japan appeared to increase the awareness of the severity of the pandemic and concerns regarding COVID-19, its direct impact has been largely decreased could only last for a short time. CONCLUSIONS At the time we wrote this paper, in Japan, the number of daily confirmed cases was continuously increasing. Thus, this study provides a timely reference for decision makers about the current situation of policy-induced compliance behaviors. On the one hand, age-dependent disparity requires target mitigation strategies to increase the intention of elderly individuals to adopt mobility restriction behaviors. On the other hand, considering the decreasing impact of self-restriction recommendations, the government should employ policy interventions that limit the resurgence of cases, especially by imposing stronger, stricter social distancing interventions, as they are necessary to promote social distancing behaviors and mitigate the transmission of COVID-19. CLINICALTRIAL None

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