scholarly journals Vaccinate Early and Vaccinate Broadly: On the health and Economic Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Ganslmeier ◽  
Pragyan Deb ◽  
Davide Furceri ◽  
Jonathan Ostry ◽  
Nour Tawk
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Vaccine Dose ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Great Relevance ◽  
Vaccine Distribution ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

Abstract Recent progress in COVID-19 vaccination campaigns has provided real hope for people around the world to successfully end the pandemic, decrease fatality rates and lift social distancing rules for timely economic recovery. Even though several RCT and single-country case studies have shown the high efficacy of the developed vaccines, little is known about how vaccination will result in lower cases and higher economic activity at the macro level. Quantifying the speed of these effects using observational data is of great relevance for policymakers as they grapple with decisions on vaccine distribution and equity, costly containment and social distancing measures, healthcare planning and expenditures, and macroeconomic policy support. With this article, we aim to contribute to the pandemic literature by measuring the effect of vaccination rates on new cases and macroeconomic activity indicators using daily real-world observational data from 314 regions/states in 17 countries. Our results show that: (i) vaccination has a delayed containment effect which increases over time; (ii) the effects on changes in economic activity are transitory after large initial rises—that is, vaccination has permanent level effects; and (iii) the effect of the second vaccine dose is only present for new cases while being insignificant for economic activity.

scholarly journals The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity

2022 ◽  
Vol 158 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pragyan Deb ◽  
Davide Furceri ◽  
Daniel Jimenez ◽  
Siddharth Kothari ◽  
Jonathan D. Ostry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Nonlinear Effects ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Equitable Access ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractThis paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high-frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for nonlinear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.

scholarly journals Strategies that make vaccination easy and promote autonomy could increase COVID-19 vaccination in those who remain hesitant.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrid Eshun-Wilson ◽  
Aaloke Mody ◽  
Khai Hoan Tram ◽  
Cory Bradley ◽  
Alexander Scheve ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Waiting Times ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Public Preferences ◽  
Black African ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vaccine Distribution ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the US has been immensely successful in vaccinating those who are receptive, further increases in vaccination rates however will require more innovative approaches to reach those who remain hesitant, deliberative or indifferent. Phenomena such empty mass vaccination sites and wasted vaccine doses in some regions suggest that in addition to dispelling misinformation and building trust, developing more person-centered vaccination strategies, that are modelled on what people want could further increase uptake. To inform vaccine distribution strategies that are aligned with public preferences for COVID-19 vaccination campaign features we conducted a survey and discrete choice experiment among a representative sample of 2,895 people in the US, between March 15 and March 22, 2021. We found that on average the public prioritized ease, preferring single to two dose vaccinations, vaccinating once rather than annually and reduced waiting times at vaccination sites - for some these were the primary preference drivers. Vaccine enforcement reduced overall vaccine acceptance, with a trend of increasing control aversion with increasing vaccine hesitancy, particularly among those who were young, Black/African American or Republican. These data suggest that making vaccination easy and promoting autonomy by offering the public choices of vaccination brands and locations may increase uptake, and that vaccine mandates could compromise autonomy and increase control aversion in those who are hesitant - reducing vaccination in such groups and potentially undermining the goals of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns.

Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us?

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna A. Pestova ◽  
Natalia A. Rostova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Empirical Estimates

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.

scholarly journals Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia’s second wave

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Quentin Grafton ◽  
John Parslow ◽  
Tom Kompas ◽  
Kathryn Glass ◽  
Emily Banks
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Detection Strategies

Abstract Background We investigated the public health and economy outcomes of different levels of social distancing to control a ‘second wave’ outbreak in Australia and identify implications for public health management of COVID-19. Methods Individual-based and compartment models were used to simulate the effects of different social distancing and detection strategies on Australian COVID-19 infections and the economy from March to July 2020. These models were used to evaluate the effects of different social distancing levels and the early relaxation of suppression measures, in terms of public health and economy outcomes. Results The models, fitted to observations up to July 2020, yielded projections consistent with subsequent cases and showed that better public health outcomes and lower economy costs occur when social distancing measures are more stringent, implemented earlier and implemented for a sufficiently long duration. Early relaxation of suppression results in worse public health outcomes and higher economy costs. Conclusions Better public health outcomes (reduced COVID-19 fatalities) are positively associated with lower economy costs and higher levels of social distancing; achieving zero community transmission lowers both public health and economy costs compared to allowing community transmission to continue; and early relaxation of social distancing increases both public health and economy costs.

scholarly journals Ekonomiczna efektywność gospodarowania w zależności od formy własności użytkowanej ziemi

2018 ◽  
Vol 105 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-37
Author(s):  
Adam Kagan ◽  
Wojciech Ziętara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Limited Liability ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Economic Effectiveness ◽  
Research Hypothesis ◽  
Capital Productivity ◽  
Group 3 ◽  
Group 2 ◽  
Group 1

The article presents the economic effectiveness of farming by land lessees when compared to farms using their own land. The study was carried out on the selected groups of limited liability companies using leased land (Group 1.), own land but with a significant share of foreign capital (Group 2.) and own land with a predominance of own capital (Group 3.). All farms participaded in the „Ranking 300” carried out by the IAFE-NRI in the years 2009-2014. The study adopted the following research hypothesis: „Land lease makes it possible to pursue the economic activity giving the higher current economic effects from land being used than in a situation where this land is owned”. The studies confirmed this hypothesis. Farms run by land lessees obtained the higher values for land, labour, assets and own capital profitability indices than those using own land. With regard to the land, labour and capital productivity, the better effects were obtained by farms from Group 3.

scholarly journals The price of the lockdown: The effects of social distancing on the Indian economy and business during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-99
Author(s):  
Hasnan Baber ◽  
Rao Tripati
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Religious Activities ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The decision on immediate lockdown in India put economic, social and religious activities to a grinding halt. The paper examines the impact of the lockdown and social distancing policies on economic activities in India, using a multivariate econometric model for the data collected in the period from 1st January to 31st August 2020. While the social distancing policy is captured in terms of internal movement, domestic travel and international travel restrictions, its effect on the economic activity and the business activity is captured through stock prices, purchasing managers' index and the exchange rate. Confirmed COVID-19 cases and related deaths are also used as the independent variables. The results reveal a significant negative impact of social distancing policies on the economic activity and the business activity, the stock market and the exchange rate. Furthermore, the economic stimulus provided by the Government could not bring a positive influence on the stock market.

scholarly journals Lessons on the Economics of Pandemics from Recent Research

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Sewon Hur ◽  
Michael Jenuwine
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Government Intervention ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Past ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Economic Studies

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a dual public health and economic crisis. Many economic studies in the past few months have explored the relationship between the spread of disease and economic activity, the role for government intervention in the crisis, and the effectiveness of testing and containment policies. This Commentary summarizes the methods and findings of a number of these studies. The economic research conducted to date shows that adequate testing and selective containment measures can be effective in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, and in the absence of adequate testing capabilities, optimal interventions involve social distancing and other lockdown measures.

Ethical Considerations and Practical Implications in Romanian Covid-19 Vaccination Campaign

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (Special Issue) ◽  
pp. 156-157
Author(s):  
Petru Sandu ◽  
◽  
Maria Aluaș ◽  
Răzvan M. Cherecheș ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Ethical Considerations ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
One Year ◽  
High Level ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

"Besides its undoubtable significant contribution to morbidity and mortality worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic has had numerous political, social, economic, and public health implications. Vaccination, an already long debated public health ethics theme, has reoccurred in force, as the efforts of the scientific community to curb the pandemic resulted in a viable vaccine less than one year since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. High-level, international negotiations dictated states’ COVID-19 vaccine availability in the first few months, therefore each national Government had to develop and deploy vaccination campaigns prioritizing certain population categories. This paper aims to present Romanian COVID-19 vaccination campaign, from its inception to the present days, by focusing on the ethical considerations (e.g. prioritization, coercion, non-discrimination) and their practical implications ( e.g. vaccination hesitancy, rates, fake news). Like most countries in the European Community, Romania has initially adopted a Rawlsian approach to vaccination, prioritizing the older adults and the individuals with chronic conditions. However, unlike other European countries, coercion was not considered in any form (e.g. extended mobility facilities for the vaccinated), more recently incentives such as food vouchers being discussed. The impact of these decisions on the vaccination rates and hesitancy are discussed in the context of other European countries examples of vaccination campaigns. "

scholarly journals Estimates of the ongoing need for social distancing and control measures post-“lockdown” from trajectories of COVID-19 cases and mortality

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 2001483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Lonergan ◽  
James D. Chalmers
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Viral Transmission ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
And Control ◽  
Doubling Times

By 21 May 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) had caused more than 5 million cases of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) across more than 200 countries. Most countries with significant outbreaks have introduced social distancing or “lockdown” measures to reduce viral transmission. So the key question now is when, how and to what extent these measures can be lifted.Publicly available data on daily numbers of newly confirmed cases and mortality were used to fit regression models estimating trajectories, doubling times and the reproduction number (R0) of the disease, before and under the control measures. These data ran up to 21 May 2020, and were sufficient for analysis in 89 countries.The estimates of R0 before lockdown based on these data were broadly consistent with those previously published: between 2.0 and 3.7 in the countries with the largest number of cases available for analysis (USA, Italy, Spain, France and UK). There was little evidence to suggest that the restrictions had reduced R far below 1 in many places, with France having the most rapid reductions: R0 0.76 (95% CI 0.72–0.82) based on cases, and 0.77 (95% CI 0.73–0.80) based on mortality.Intermittent lockdown has been proposed as a means of controlling the outbreak while allowing periods of increased freedom and economic activity. These data suggest that few countries could have even 1 week per month unrestricted without seeing resurgence of the epidemic. Similarly, restoring 20% of the activity that has been prevented by the lockdowns looks difficult to reconcile with preventing the resurgence of the disease in most countries.

scholarly journals Preserving equipoise and performing randomised trials for COVID-19 social distancing interventions

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioana Alina Cristea ◽  
Florian Naudet ◽  
John P. A. Ioannidis
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Study Design ◽  
Randomised Controlled Trials ◽  
Controlled Trials ◽  
Randomised Trials ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Design Choice ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Randomised Controlled ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract In the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, a large number of non-pharmaceutical measures that pertain to the wider group of social distancing interventions (e.g. public gathering bans, closures of schools, workplaces and all but essential business, mandatory stay-at-home policies, travel restrictions, border closures and others) have been deployed. Their urgent deployment was defended with modelling and observational data of spurious credibility. There is major debate on whether these measures are effective and there is also uncertainty about the magnitude of the harms that these measures might induce. Given that there is equipoise for how, when and if specific social distancing interventions for COVID-19 should be applied and removed/modified during reopening, we argue that informative randomised-controlled trials are needed. Only a few such randomised trials have already been conducted, but the ones done to-date demonstrate that a randomised trials agenda is feasible. We discuss here issues of study design choice, selection of comparators (intervention and controls), choice of outcomes and additional considerations for the conduct of such trials. We also discuss and refute common counter-arguments against the conduct of such trials.

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