scholarly journals Economic impact analysis of current climate change variability and future impacts in agricultural sector of Nepal

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 49-56
Author(s):  
D.C. Devkota ◽  
K.R. Gosai ◽  
D. Devkota
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Nepal’s economy is largely based on agriculture, predominantly small-scale farming, and about half of which is dependent on natural rainfall. In Nepal, agriculture is a highly climate sensitive sector. Historically, the sector has been affected by floods, droughts and erratic rainfall. This study focused on the impacts and economic costs of climate change in agriculture and assessed perceptions of communities of Kaski and Mustang districts on frequency and intensity of hailstorm events over time including their related impacts. Scenario-based impact assessment was used for assessment of long-term impacts and economic costs of climate change. The study used Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) model to analyze the effects of climate on three major crops, namely rice, maize and wheat. The economic loss due to the impacts of climate change in cereals (rice, maize and wheat) was estimated at around US$ 336.42 million in the year 2006. Among the respondents, 60% reported food shortages which made them highly vulnerable due to climate variability. Similarly, 80% of the respondents mentioned that 20 major hailstorm events have occurred in the vicinity of their communities over the last 35 years (up to 2012) and have caused significant damage to crop production, livestock and infrastructure. DesInventar database reported damage of 75% to 100% of the key crops. Crop yield projections indicate a complex mix of increases and decreases in yield which vary over time (in projections in 2030 AD and 2070 AD) and by location (east to west/Terai to Mountains). In the 2030s, there is a net increase in production and values; however, by the 2070s, the impact in agricultural production is expected to reach to US$ 140 million/year (2014). In terms of research, there are priorities around further work to understand climate uncertainty, the indirect economic costs of these impacts, and early research priorities to address long-term challenges. There is an urgent need to build capacity, with information and awareness raising, monitoring, research, and institutional strengthening.

scholarly journals Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (7) ◽  
pp. 4353-4389
Author(s):  
S. Quiroga ◽  
C. Suárez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Social Aspect ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Effects Of Drought ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural outputs in Spanish rural areas. By now the effects of drought as a response to climate change or policy restrictions have been analyzed through response functions considering direct effects on crop productivity and incomes. These changes also affect incomes distribution in the region and therefore modify the social structure. Here we consider this complementary indirect effect on social distribution of incomes which is essential in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a decomposition of inequalities measure to estimate the impact of climate change and drought on yield disparities. This social aspect is important for climate change policies since it can be determinant for the public acceptance of certain adaptation measures in a context of drought. We provide the empirical estimations for the marginal effects of the two considered impacts: farms' income average and social income distribution. In our estimates we consider crop productivity response to both bio-physical and socio-economic aspects to analyze long term implications on both competitiveness and social disparities. We find disparities in the adaptation priorities depending on the crop and the region analyzed.

scholarly journals Assessment Model Impact of Climate Change on Potential Production for Food and Energy Needs for the Coastal Areas of Bengkulu, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-169
Author(s):  
Eko Sumartono ◽  
Gita Mulyasari ◽  
Ketut Sukiyono
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Appropriate Technology ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Food Reserves ◽  
The Impact

Bengkulu is said to be the center of the world's climate because of the influence of water conditions and the topography of the area where the rain cloud formation starts. The waters in Bengkulu Province become a meeting place for four ocean currents which eventually become an area where the evaporation process of forming rain clouds becomes the rainy or dry season and affects the world climate. Method to analyze descriptively, shows oldeman Classification and satellite rainfall estimation data is added. In relation to the Analysis of Potential Food Availability for the Coastal Areas of Bengkulu Province uses a quantifiable descriptive analysis method based. The results show that most are included in the Oldeman A1 climate zone, which means it is suitable for continuous rice but less production due to generally low radiation intensity throughout the year. In an effort to reduce or eliminate the impact of climate change on food crop production, it is necessary to suggest crop diversification, crop rotation, and the application of production enhancement technologies. Strategies in building food availability as a result of climate change are: First, develop food supplies originating from regional production and food reserves on a provincial scale. Second, Empowering small-scale food businesses which are the dominant characteristics of the agricultural economy, especially lowland rice and horticultural crops. Third, Increase technology dissemination and increase the capacity of farmers in adopting appropriate technology to increase crop productivity and business efficiency. Four, Promote the reduction of food loss through the use of food handling, processing and distribution technologies. 

scholarly journals Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1369-1385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Quiroga ◽  
Cristina Suárez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
General Acceptance ◽  
Rural Income ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural incomes in Spanish rural areas. Present research has focused on the effects of these extreme climatological events through response functions, considering effects on crop productivity and average incomes. Among the impacts of droughts, we focused on potential effects on income distribution. The study of the effects on abnormally dry periods is therefore needed in order to perform an analysis of diverse social aspects in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a measure of the decomposition of inequality to estimate the impact of climate change and drought on yield disparities. Certain adaptation measures may require a better understanding of risks by the public to achieve general acceptance. We provide empirical estimations for the marginal effects of the two impacts considered: farms' average income and income distribution. Our estimates consider crop production response to both biophysical and socio-economic aspects to analyse long-term implications on competitiveness and disparities. As for the results, we find disparities in the adaptation priorities depending on the crop and the region analysed.

Particular Forms of Management of Agro – Industrial Complex in the Sustainable Development of Agriculture

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 639
Author(s):  
Baglan AIMURZINA ◽  
Mazken KAMENOVA ◽  
Ainura OMAROVA ◽  
Galina PESTUNOVA ◽  
Ainur KARIPOVA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
Scale Production ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Impact

In this paper it is noted that the important problem of the existing economic relations in the agrarian sphere is the choice of forms of management. The practice of reforms in agriculture has shown that more than 80% of gross output in Kazakhstan is currently produced by "households" and peasant (farmer) farms which provides further increase in the production of agricultural products namely crop production and increase its economic efficiency. Currently the agricultural sector has a tendency to small-scale production. As the situation has shown one of the main factors negatively influencing investment activity is financial instability of the majority of agricultural producers, low level of its profitability and significant risks.  Factors of low profit growth of the agricultural sector are related to the peculiarities of demand for agricultural products and seasonality of production in this industry. The analysis of the structure of gross agricultural production of the Republic of Kazakhstan by categories of farms, the returnability of agricultural production for 2012-2016 shows the impact of the price and yield of grain on the level of farm income. Proposals for further improvement of grain pricing are given.

A Macroeconomic Analysis of Agricultural Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-25
Author(s):  
Isah Funtua Abubakar ◽  
Umar Bambale Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Size Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Impact

This paper attempts to study the Nigerian agriculture industry as a panacea to growth as well as an anchor to the diversification agenda of the present government. To do this, the time series data of the four agriculture subsectors of crop production, livestock, forestry and fishery were analysed as stimulus to the Real GDP from 1981-2016 in order to explicate the individual contributions of the subsectors to the RGDP in order to guide the policy thrust on diversification. Using the Johansen approach to cointegration, all the variables were found to be cointegrated. With the exception of the forestry subsector, all the three subsectors were seen to have impacted on the real GDP at varying degrees during the time under review. The crop production subsector has the highest impact, however, taking size-by-size analysis, the livestock subsector could be of much importance due to its ability to retain its value chain and high investment returns particularly in poultry. Therefore, it is recommended that, the government should intensify efforts to retain the value chain in the crop production subsector, in order to harness its potentials optimally through the encouragement of the establishment of agriculture cottage industries. Secondly, the livestock subsector is found to be the most rapidly growing and commercialized subsector. Therefore, it should be the prime subsector to hinge the diversification agenda naturally. Lastly, the tourism industry which is a source through which the impact of the subsector is channeled to the GDP should be developed, in order to improve the impact of such channel to GDP with the sole objective to resuscitate the forestry subsector.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Income and Food Security: Empirical Evidence from Small-Scale Fishers in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7905
Author(s):  
Moh. Shadiqur Rahman ◽  
Hery Toiba ◽  
Wen-Chi Huang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Substantial Effect ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Probit Regression ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

The impacts of climate change on marine capture fisheries have been observed in several studies. It is likely to have a substantial effect on fishers’ income and food security. This study aims to estimate the impact of adaptation strategies on fishers’ income and their household’s food security. Data were collected from small-scale fishers’ households, which own a fishing boat smaller or equal to five gross tonnages (GT). The study sites were the two coastal regions of Malang and Probolinggo in East Java, Indonesia, due to the meager socioeconomic resources caused by climate change. A probit regression model was used to determine the factors influencing the fishers’ adaptation. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to evaluate the impact of the adaptation strategies on income and food security. Food security was measured by food consumption score (FCS). The findings indicated that participation in the fishers’ group affected adaptation strategies significantly, and so did the access to credit and climate information. Also, PSM showed that the adaptation strategies had a positive and significant impact on fishers’ income and food security. Those who applied the adaptation strategies had a higher income and FCS than those who did not. This finding implies that the fishery sector’s adaptation strategies can have significant expansion outcome and reduce exposure to risks posed by climate change. Therefore, the arrangement of more climate change adaptation strategies should be promoted by the government for small-scale fishers in Indonesia.

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

scholarly journals Natural and Managed Grasslands Productivity during Multiyear in Ex-Arable Lands (in the Context of Climate Change)

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215
Author(s):  
Liudmila Tripolskaja ◽  
Asta Kazlauskaite-Jadzevice ◽  
Virgilijus Baliuckas ◽  
Almantas Razukas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Properties ◽  
Dry Matter ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Rainfall Variation ◽  
Global Issue ◽  
Term Change ◽  
The Impact

Ex-arable land-use change is a global issue with significant implications for climate change and impact for phytocenosis productivity and soil quality. In temperate humid grassland, we examined the impact of climate variability and changes of soil properties on 23 years of grass productivity after conversion of ex-arable soil to abandoned land (AL), unfertilized, and fertilized managed grassland (MGunfert and MGfert, respectively). This study aimed to investigate the changes between phytocenosis dry matter (DM) yield and rainfall amount in May–June and changes of organic carbon (Corg) stocks in soil. It was found that from 1995 to 2019, rainfall in May–June tended to decrease. The more resistant to rainfall variation were plants recovered in AL. The average DM yield of MGfert was 3.0 times higher compared to that in the AL. The DM yields of AL and MG were also influenced by the long-term change of soil properties. Our results showed that Corg sequestration in AL was faster (0.455 Mg ha−1 year−1) than that in MGfert (0.321 Mg ha−1 year−1). These studies will be important in Arenosol for selecting the method for transforming low-productivity arable land into MG.

scholarly journals How will future climate depending agronomic management impact the yield risk of wheat cropping systems? A regional case study of Eastern Denmark

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
J. Macholdt ◽  
J. Glerup Gyldengren ◽  
E. Diamantopoulos ◽  
M. E. Styczen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Catch Crops ◽  
Agronomic Management ◽  
The Future ◽  
Yield Risk ◽  
Management Factors ◽  
The Impact

Abstract One of the major challenges in agriculture is how climate change influences crop production, for different environmental (soil type, topography, groundwater depth, etc.) and agronomic management conditions. Through systems modelling, this study aims to quantify the impact of future climate on yield risk of winter wheat for two common soil types of Eastern Denmark. The agro-ecosystem model DAISY was used to simulate arable, conventional cropping systems (CSs) and the study focused on the three main management factors: cropping sequence, usage of catch crops and cereal straw management. For the case region of Eastern Denmark, the future yield risk of wheat does not necessarily increase under climate change mainly due to lower water stress in the projections; rather, it depends on appropriate management and each CS design. Major management factors affecting the yield risk of wheat were N supply and the amount of organic material added during rotations. If a CS is characterized by straw removal and no catch crop within the rotation, an increased wheat yield risk must be expected in the future. In contrast, more favourable CSs, including catch crops and straw incorporation, maintain their capacity and result in a decreasing yield risk over time. Higher soil organic matter content, higher net nitrogen mineralization rate and higher soil organic nitrogen content were the main underlying causes for these positive effects. Furthermore, the simulation results showed better N recycling and reduced nitrate leaching for the more favourable CSs, which provide benefits for environment-friendly and sustainable crop production.

scholarly journals Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1712) ◽  
pp. 1661-1669 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alonso ◽  
Menno J. Bouma ◽  
Mercedes Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Nonlinear Response ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Human Model ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
East African ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970–2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito–human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

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