scholarly journals Study of Two Upper Cold Lows and Their Relationship with Locally Intense Rain

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Osmany Lorenzo Amaro
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Wind Force ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Vertical Speed ◽  
Low Levels

The main objective of the research was to determine the synoptic and mesoscale conditions, which, under the influence of two Upper Cold Lows (UCL), favor the occurrence of locally intense rain in Cuba. From the outputs of the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model, the characteristics of two UCL with four cases of locally intense rain associated with them were analyzed. The variables that were studied are relative humidity, temperature, geopotential height, vertical speed, wind force, divergence and vorticity. Mesoscale conditions were analyzed by using the Weather Research and Forecast System (WRF) model. Vertical cuts, numerical soundings and analysis of radar observations and satellite images were carried out. The CAPE shows extreme values higher than 6000 J/kg near the center of both systems and the LI reaches −13. The cases were developed in an environment of weak vertical wind shear in the surface layer −500 hPa and moderate to strong in the upper troposphere. High relative humidity values were identified at low levels, a dry layer was identified at medium levels and an increase in relative humidity was identified in the 300–200 hPa layer.

scholarly journals Analysis of Possible Physical Factors That Accelerate Downdrafts in Storm Clouds over Cuba

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Gleisis Alvarez-Socorro ◽  
Mario Carnesoltas-Calvo ◽  
Alis Varela-de la Rosa ◽  
José C. Fernández-Alvarez
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Equivalent Potential Temperature ◽  
Minimum Relative Humidity ◽  
Equivalent Potential ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Do So

One of the manifestations of severe local storms is strong linear winds, which are known as a downburst and which are capable of causing great losses to the country’s economy and society. Knowing which factors in the atmosphere are necessary for the occurrence of this phenomenon is essential for its better understanding and prediction. The objective of this study was to analyze the possible physical factors that accelerate downdrafts in the storm clouds in Cuba. To do so, 10 study cases simulated with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model at 3 km of the spatial resolution were used. The factors capable of discriminating between downbursts and thunderstorms without severity were obtained. These were the absorption of latent heat by evaporation and fusion, the equivalent potential temperature difference between the level of maximum relative humidity in the low levels and of minimum relative humidity in the middle levels, the speed of the downdraft, and the downdraft available convective potential energy (DCAPE). Unlike previous research, they discriminated against updraft buoyancy and energy advection, both at the middle levels of the troposphere.

scholarly journals The Effects of Topography on the Evolution of Typhoon Saomai (2006) under the Influence of Tropical Storm Bopha (2006)

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (2) ◽  
pp. 468-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wook Jang ◽  
Hye-Yeong Chun
Keyword(s):  
Wrf Model ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
The West ◽  
Northerly Wind ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Typhoon Saomai

Abstract The effects of topography on the evolution of Typhoon Saomai (2006) are investigated by conducting a series of numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model using 100%, 75%, 50%, and 25% of terrain heights of the Central Mountain Range (CMR) in Taiwan. Differences in the track and intensity of Typhoon Saomai between the experiments are strongly related to those of Tropical Storm Bopha, which passed Taiwan earlier than the typhoon. In the sensitivity experiments, the higher CMR drifts Bopha more southward, which results in the weakening of Bopha by prohibiting the interaction between the CMR and Bopha, and the flows induced by Bopha force Saomai to propagate along a more southerly track. The higher CMR weakens the easterly flow in the lower troposphere and suppresses the northerly flow in the upper troposphere to the west of Saomai. The resultant weak vertical wind shear keeps warm air near the typhoon center in the upper troposphere, which promotes the intensification of the typhoon. To examine the direct effects of topography on the track and intensity of Saomai, additional simulations involving the removal of Bopha from the initial condition with 100% and 50% of CMR are conducted. The results without Bopha showed that Saomai moves more southward at a slower speed and with greater intensity, due to the stronger northerly wind to the west of Saomai, which was not canceled out by the southerly wind to the east of Bopha, and there is no significant difference in the tracks or intensity with respect to the mountain heights.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Hurricane Intensity Forecast to Convective Momentum Transport Parameterization

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (2) ◽  
pp. 664-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jongil Han ◽  
Hua-Lu Pan
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Momentum Transport ◽  
Gradient Force ◽  
Pressure Gradient Force ◽  
Momentum Exchange ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Hurricane Intensity ◽  
Convective Momentum Transport ◽  
The Many

Abstract A parameterization of the convection-induced pressure gradient force (PGF) in convective momentum transport (CMT) is tested for hurricane intensity forecasting using NCEP's operational Global Forecast System (GFS) and its nested Regional Spectral Model (RSM). In the parameterization the PGF is assumed to be proportional to the product of the cloud mass flux and vertical wind shear. Compared to control forecasts using the present operational GFS and RSM where the PGF effect in CMT is taken into account empirically, the new PGF parameterization helps increase hurricane intensity by reducing the vertical momentum exchange, giving rise to a closer comparison to the observations. In addition, the new PGF parameterization forecasts not only show more realistically organized precipitation patterns with enhanced hurricane intensity but also reduce the forecast track error. Nevertheless, the model forecasts with the new PGF parameterization still largely underpredict the observed intensity. One of the many possible reasons for the large underprediction may be the absence of hurricane initialization in the models.

Intensification of Tilted Tropical Cyclones Over Relatively Cool and Warm Oceans in Idealized Numerical Simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Schecter
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Structural Parameters ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
Complete Alignment

Abstract A cloud resolving model is used to examine the intensification of tilted tropical cyclones from depression to hurricane strength over relatively cool and warm oceans under idealized conditions where environmental vertical wind shear has become minimal. Variation of the SST does not substantially change the time-averaged relationship between tilt and the radial length scale of the inner core, or between tilt and the azimuthal distribution of precipitation during the hurricane formation period (HFP). By contrast, for systems having similar structural parameters, the HFP lengthens superlinearly in association with a decline of the precipitation rate as the SST decreases from 30 to 26 °C. In many simulations, hurricane formation progresses from a phase of slow or neutral intensification to fast spinup. The transition to fast spinup occurs after the magnitudes of tilt and convective asymmetry drop below certain SST-dependent levels following an alignment process explained in an earlier paper. For reasons examined herein, the alignment coincides with enhancements of lower–middle tropospheric relative humidity and lower tropospheric CAPE inward of the radius of maximum surface wind speed rm. Such moist-thermodynamic modifications appear to facilitate initiation of the faster mode of intensification, which involves contraction of rm and the characteristic radius of deep convection. The mean transitional values of the tilt magnitude and lower–middle tropospheric relative humidity for SSTs of 28-30 °C are respectively higher and lower than their counterparts at 26 °C. Greater magnitudes of the surface enthalpy flux and core deep-layer CAPE found at the higher SSTs plausibly compensate for less complete alignment and core humidification at the transition time.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Size Change of Tropical Cyclones Traversing the Philippines

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (9) ◽  
pp. 2891-2911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu-Jeng Lin ◽  
Kun-Hsuan Chou
Keyword(s):  
Angular Momentum ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Momentum Flux ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
The South ◽  
Size Change

Abstract This study investigates the size changes of tropical cyclones (TCs) traversing the Philippines based on a 37-yr statistical analysis. TC size is defined by the radius of 30-kt (≈15.4 m s−1) wind speed (R30) from the best track data of the Japan Meteorological Agency. A total of 71 TCs passed the Philippines during 1979–2015. The numbers of size increase (SI; 36) and size decrease (SD; 34) cases are very similar; however, the last 15 years have seen more SI cases (17) than SD cases (11). SI and SD cases mostly occur along northerly and southerly paths, respectively, after TCs pass the Philippines. Before landfall, SI cases have small initial sizes and weak intensities, but SD cases have larger initial sizes and stronger intensities. After landfall, most SI cases are intensifying storms, and most SD cases are nonintensifying storms. Composite analyses of vertical wind shear, absolute angular momentum flux, relative humidity, and sea surface temperature between SI and SD cases are compared. All of these values are larger in SI cases than in SD cases. Furthermore, the interdecadal difference in the ratio of the numbers of SI to SD cases reveals an unusually high number of SI cases during 2001–15. The synoptic patterns between 1979–2000 and 2001–15 are analyzed. The high SI ratio in the latter period is related to strong southwesterly wind in the south of the South China Sea that raised relative humidity, warmed the sea surface, and increased import of angular momentum flux.

scholarly journals Nondissipative and Dissipative Momentum Deposition by Mountain Wave Events in Sheared Environments

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (8) ◽  
pp. 2721-2740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher G. Kruse ◽  
Ronald B. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Broad Spectrum ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Mountain Wave ◽  
Subsequent Evolution ◽  
Event Duration ◽  
Mountain Waves ◽  
Vertical Dispersion ◽  
Nonlinear Transient

AbstractMountain waves (MWs) are generated during episodic cross-barrier flow over broad-spectrum terrain. However, most MW drag parameterizations neglect transient, broad-spectrum dynamics. Here, the influences of these dynamics on both nondissipative and dissipative momentum deposition by MW events are quantified in a 2D, horizontally periodic idealized framework. The influences of the MW spectrum, vertical wind shear, and forcing duration are investigated. MW events are studied using three numerical models—the nonlinear, transient WRF Model; a linear, quasi-transient Fourier-ray model; and an optimally tuned Lindzen-type saturation parameterization—allowing quantification of total, nondissipative, and dissipative MW-induced decelerations, respectively. Additionally, a pseudomomentum diagnostic is used to estimate nondissipative decelerations within the WRF solutions. For broad-spectrum MWs, vertical dispersion controls spectrum evolution aloft. Short MWs propagate upward quickly and break first at the highest altitudes. Subsequently, the arrival of additional longer MWs allows breaking at lower altitudes because of their greater contribution to u variance. As a result, minimum breaking levels descend with time and event duration. In zero- and positive-shear environments, this descent is not smooth but proceeds downward in steps as a result of vertically recurring steepening levels. Nondissipative decelerations are nonnegligible and influence an MW’s approach to breaking, but breaking and dissipative decelerations quickly develop and dominate the subsequent evolution. Comparison of the three model solutions suggests that the conventional instant propagation and monochromatic parameterization assumptions lead to too much MW drag at too low an altitude.

scholarly journals Numerical simulation of rainfall with assimilation of conventional and GPS observations over north of Iran

2016 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Ali Sharifi ◽  
Majid Azadi ◽  
Ali Sam Khaniani
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
North Of Iran

<p>In this work, the effect of assimilation of synoptic, radiosonde and ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor (PWV) data has been investigated on the short-term prediction of precipitation, vertical relative humidity and PWV fields over north of Iran. We selected two rainfall events (i.e. February 1, 2014, and September 17, 2014) caused by synoptic systems affecting the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea. These systems are often associated with a shallow and cold high pressure located over Russia that extends towards the southern Caspian Sea. The three dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used in two rainfall cases. In each case, three numerical experiments, namely CTRL, CONVDA and GPSCONVDA, are performed. The CTRL experiment uses the global analysis as the initial and boundary conditions of the model. In the second experiment, surface and radiosonde observations are inserted into the model. Finally, the GPSCONVDA experiment uses the GPS PWV data in the assimilation process in addition to the conventional observations. It is found that in CONVDA experiment, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the accumulated precipitation is reduced about 5 and 13 percent in 24h model simulation of February and September cases, respectively, when compared to CTRL. Also, the results in both cases suggest that the assimilation of GPS data has the greatest impact on model PWV simulations, with maximum root mean squares error (RMSE) reduction of 0.7 mm. In the GPSCONVDA experiment, comparison of the vertical profiles of 12h simulated relative humidity with the corresponding radiosonde observations shows a slight improvement in the lower levels.</p>

scholarly journals A statistical examination of the effects of stratospheric sulphate geoengineering on tropical storm genesis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qin Wang ◽  
John C. Moore ◽  
Duoying Ji
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The North

Abstract. The thermodynamics of the ocean and atmosphere partly determine variability in tropical cyclone (TC) number and intensity and are readily accessible from climate model output, but a complete description of TC variability requires much more dynamical data than climate models can provide at present. Genesis potential index (GPI) and ventilation index (VI) are combinations of potential intensity, vertical wind shear, relative humidity, midlevel entropy deficit, and absolute vorticity that can quantify both thermodynamic and dynamic forcing of TC activity under different climate states. Here we use six CMIP5 models that have run the RCP4.5 experiment and the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) stratospheric aerosol injection G4 experiment, to calculate the two TC indices over the 2020 to 2069 period across the 6 ocean basins that generate tropical cyclones. Globally, GPI under G4 is lower than under RCP4.5, though both have a slight increasing trend. Spatial patterns in the effectiveness of geoengineering show reductions in TC in the North Atlantic basin, and Northern Indian Ocean in all models except NorESM1-M. In the North Pacific, most models also show relative reductions under G4. Most models project potential intensity and relative humidity to be the dominant variables affecting genesis potential. Changes in vertical wind shear are significant, but both it and vorticity exhibit relatively small changes with large variation across both models and ocean basins. We find that tropopause temperature is not a useful addition to sea surface temperature in projecting TC genesis, despite radiative heating of the stratosphere due to the aerosol injection, and heating of the upper troposphere affecting static stability and potential intensity. Thus, simplified statistical methods that quantify the thermodynamic state of the major genesis basins may reasonably be used to examine stratospheric aerosol geoengineering impacts on TC activity.

Using Radio Occultation to Detect Clouds in the Middle and Upper Troposphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeana Mascio ◽  
Stephen S. Leroy ◽  
Robert P. d’Entremont ◽  
Thomas Connor ◽  
E. Robert Kursinski
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Radio Occultation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Cloud Detection ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate ◽  
Direct Sensitivity

AbstractRadio occultation (RO) measurements have little direct sensitivity to clouds, but recent studies have shown that they may have an indirect sensitivity to thin, high clouds that are difficult to detect using conventional passive space-based cloud sensors. We implement two RO-based cloud detection (ROCD) algorithms for atmospheric layers in the middle and upper troposphere. The first algorithm is based on the methodology of a previous study, which explored signatures caused by upper tropospheric clouds in RO profiles according to retrieved relative humidity, temperature lapse rate, and gradients in log-refractivity (ROCD-P), and the second is based on inferred relative humidity alone (ROCD-M). In both, atmospheric layers are independently predicted as cloudy or clear based on observational data, including high performance RO retrievals. In a demonstration, we use data from 10 days spanning seven months in 2020 of FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2. We use the forecasts of NOAA GFS to aid in the retrieval of relative humidity. The prediction is validated with a cloud truth dataset created from the imagery of the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) satellite and the GFS three-dimensional analysis of cloud state conditions. Given these two algorithms for the presence or absence of clouds, confusion matrices and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are used to analyze how well these algorithms perform. The ROCD-M algorithm has a balanced accuracy, which defines the quality of the classification test that considers both the sensitivity and specificity, greater than 70% for all altitudes between 6 and 10.25 km.

scholarly journals High-Resolution Ensemble HFV3 Forecasts of Hurricane Michael (2018): Rapid Intensification in Shear

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (5) ◽  
pp. 2009-2032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew T. Hazelton ◽  
Xuejin Zhang ◽  
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan ◽  
William Ramstrom ◽  
Frank Marks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Cubed Sphere ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The FV3GFS is the current operational Global Forecast System (GFS) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which combines a finite-volume cubed sphere dynamical core (FV3) and GFS physics. In this study, FV3GFS is used to gain understanding of rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in shear. The analysis demonstrates the importance of TC structure in a complex system like Hurricane Michael, which intensified to a category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico despite over 20 kt (10 m s−1) of vertical wind shear. Michael’s RI is examined using a global-nest FV3GFS ensemble with the nest at 3-km resolution. The ensemble shows a range of peak intensities from 77 to 159 kt (40–82 m s−1). Precipitation symmetry, vortex tilt, moisture, and other aspects of Michael’s evolution are compared through composites of stronger and weaker members. The 850–200-hPa vertical shear is 22 kt (11 m s−1) in the mean of both strong and weak members during the early stage. Tilt and moisture are two distinguishing factors between strong and weak members. The relationship between vortex tilt and humidification is complex, and other studies have shown both are important for sheared intensification. Here, it is shown that tilt reduction leads to upshear humidification and is thus a driving factor for intensification. A stronger initial vortex and early evolution of the vortex also appear to be the key to members that are able to resist the sheared environment.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document