Modelling of COVID-19 Transmission in Kenya Using Compound Poisson Regression Model

Since the inception of the novel Corona Virus Disease-19 in December in China, the spread has been massive leading World Health Organization to declare it a world pandemic. While epicenter of COVID-19 was Wuhan city in China mainland, Italy has been affected most due to the high number of recorded deaths as at 21st April, 2020 at the same time USA recording the highest number of virus reported cases. In addition, the spread has been experienced in many developing African countries including Kenya. The Kenyan government need to make necessary plans for those who have tested positive through self-quarantine beds at Mbagathi Hospital as a way of containing the spread of the virus. In addition, lack of a proper mathematical model that can be used to model and predict the spread of COVID-19 for adequate response security has been one of the main concerns for the government. Many mathematical models have been proposed for proper modeling and forecasting, but this paper will focus on using a generalized linear regression that can detect linear relationship between the risk factors. The paper intents to model and forecast the confirmed COVID-19 cases in Kenya as a Compound Poisson regression process where the parameter follows a generalized linear regression that is influenced by the number of daily contact persons and daily flights with the already confirmed cases of the virus. Ultimately, this paper would assist the government in proper resource allocation to deal with pandemic in terms of available of bed capacities, public awareness campaigns and virus testing kits not only in the virus hotbed within Nairobi capital city but also in the other 47 Kenyan counties.

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Knowledge and practice of personal protective measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional study in Saudi Arabia

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0243695 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 15 (12) ◽

pp. e0243695

Author(s):

Abdulrahman S. Bazaid ◽

Abdu Aldarhami ◽

Naif K. Binsaleh ◽

Subuhi Sherwani ◽

Omar W. Althomali

Keyword(s):

Saudi Arabia ◽

Virus Disease ◽

Public Awareness ◽

Virus Transmission ◽

Hand Washing ◽

World Health ◽

Public Knowledge ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Protective Measures ◽

Awareness Campaigns

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an emergent infectious pathogen causing an acute respiratory disease called corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Virus transmission may occur by contact, droplet, airborne or via contaminated surfaces. In efforts to effectively control the COVID-19 outbreak, the world health organization (WHO) and the Saudi Ministry of Health (MOH) have advised the public to practice protective measures to reduce transmission of the virus and reduce incidence of infection. These measures include hand washing, wearing masks and gloves and avoidance of touching the face with unwashed hands. The current study aimed to investigate knowledge and adherence of the Saudi population to these protective actions during the pandemic. After determining the required sample size using power analysis, a cross-sectional online self-reported survey of 5105 Saudi residents was conducted between 25th March to 17th April 2020 to evaluate public knowledge of COVID-19. Participants were all aged 18 years or above, Arabic speakers and residents of Saudi Arabia. Scores were calculated based on knowledge and adherence of the individuals to protective measures. About 90% of participants exhibited a high level of knowledge (scored 2/2) and practice (scored > 3/6) in relation to hand hygiene and wearing gloves and masks. Practice scores were positively associated with females and individuals with high income. Lower practice scores were linked to youth and residents of the northern and western regions of the Kingdom. Over two thirds of participants preferred hand washing to alcohol disinfection, and the frequency and performance of hand washing improved during the pandemic for more than half of respondents. Overall, the findings reflected high public knowledge of SARS-CoV2 transmission routes and adherence to personal protective measures. However, public awareness campaigns with an emphasis on the youth and individuals with low education and income are required to improve overall practice.

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Environmental Degradation in the Ikorodu Sub-Urban Lagos - Lagoon Coastal Environment, Nigeria

Open Environmental Sciences ◽

10.2174/1876325101810010016 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 16-33 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Shakirudeen Odunuga ◽

Samuel Udofia ◽

Opeyemi Esther Osho ◽

Olubunmi Adegun

Keyword(s):

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Public Awareness ◽

Biodiversity Loss ◽

Policy Formulation ◽

Coastal Environment ◽

Resource Exploitation ◽

Average Growth ◽

Awareness Campaigns ◽

The Government ◽

State Of The Environment

Introduction:Human activities exert great pressures on the environment which in turn cause environmental stresses of various intensities depending on the factors involved and the sensitivity of the receiving environment.Objective:This study examines the effects of anthropogenic activities along the sub-urban lagoon fragile coastal ecosystem using DPSIR framework.Results:The results show that the study area has undergone a tremendous change between 1964 and 2015 with the built up area increasing to about 1,080 ha (17.87%) in 2015 from 224 ha (1.32%) in 1964 at an average growth rate of 16.78ha per annum. The nature of the degradation includes an increasing fragility of the ecosystem through the emergence and expansion of wetlands, flooding and erosion as well as a reduction in the benefits from the ecosystem services. Population growth, between 2006 and 2015 for Ikorodu LGA, estimated at 8.84% per annum serves as the most important driving force in reducing the quality of the environment. This is in addition to Pressures emanating from anthropogenic activities. The state of the environment shows continuous resource exploitation (fishing and sand mining) with the impacts of the pressures coming from water pollution, bank erosion, biodiversity loss and flooding. Although there has been a strong policy formulation response from the government, weak implementation is a major challenge.Recommendation:The study recommends public awareness campaigns and the implementation of existing policies to ensure a sustainable sub-urban lagoon coastal environment..

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Confronting the Moscow Healthcare System with the Shocks of COVID-19

City Healthcare ◽

10.47619/2713-2617.zm.2021.v2i1;41-46 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 41-46

Author(s):

Aleksandr N. Tsibin ◽

Munira F. Latypova ◽

Olga I. Ivanushkina

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Large Scale ◽

Virus Disease ◽

Laboratory Diagnosis ◽

Capital City ◽

Laboratory Diagnostics ◽

Successful Implementation ◽

Laboratory Service ◽

The Government ◽

Challenging Situation

Introduction. Transmissible coronavirus SARS-CoV-2I is the seventh known coronavirus that causes an acute infectious disease predominantly affecting the lungs (Corona Virus Disease 2019, COVID-19). The COVID-19 pandemic exposed serious gaps in health systems preparedness. The epidemic urgently required priority organizational measures to contain and reduce the spread of COVID-19. Public health authorities had to make decisions in a challenging situation where there was a lack of knowledge, experience, and great confidence, and the number of infected was steadily increasing. Purpose. The purpose of this article is to present the unique experience of Moscow in organizing a large-scale laboratory examination of the population of a metropolis with about 12.6 million inhabitants to meet the needs of the capital in testing for SARS-CoV-2 virus and combating its circulation in conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and Methods. The decisions made and the measures taken by the Government of Moscow, the Moscow Operational Staff, the DZM and the DZM Laboratory Service to slow the growth of the COVID-19 epidemic among the population of the capital are listed step-by-step. Results. In the course of organizational activities, sufficient capacity to maintain the public health infrastructure in terms of laboratory diagnosis of the new coronavirus infection was ensured by the joint efforts. Safe laboratory diagnostics for detecting, treating, and isolating COVID-19 cases and contacts have been established in the capital city. Thanks to the successful implementation of timely decisions, the spread of infection in the city of Moscow has been slowed. The Moscow government has reported a steady decline in cases of the new coronavirus disease and most hospitals have switched to a safe treatment regimen for patients requiring hospitalization. Centralized laboratories with readiness to perform screening and referral studies for COVID-19 outbreaks have been established within the structure of the DZM.

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Awareness and Perception Regarding Corona Virus Disease 19 Outbreak among General Public of Selected Area of Kathmandu

International Journal of Health Sciences and Research ◽

10.52403/ijhsr.20211010 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 67-71

Author(s):

Kiran Chhetri ◽

Puspa Kumari Deo

Keyword(s):

General Public ◽

Virus Disease ◽

Sampling Technique ◽

P Value ◽

Positive Perception ◽

Online Questionnaire ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Negative Perception ◽

Awareness Campaigns ◽

The Government

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 is an upcoming contagious respiratory infection caused by a new coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV2) which is transmitted through the respiratory droplets produced by coughing or sneezing of an infected person. The behavior of the general public will probably have an important bearing on the course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. Human behavior is influenced by knowledge and perceptions. This paper aims to identify the awareness and perception regarding COVID-19 among general public. Method: A cross sectional descriptive design was used by using structured online questionnaire through Google form. The study was conducted at certain area of Kathmandu. Sample size was 423 with non probability convenience sampling technique. Result: The findings revealed that overall, 44.9% respondents had low, 34.0% had average and 21% had high level of awareness. Likewise, 56.6% had positive perception and 43.2% had negative perception about COVID outbreak. Also 62% respondents had positive and 37.7% had negative perception about prevention of COVID. There is an association between educational status and level of awareness with ‘p’ value lesser than 0.05 at 95% level of confidence. Conclusion: Majority of respondents were not aware about the outbreak of COVID19. Also more than half of respondents had positive perception about outbreak of COVID 19. The effective measures are being taken by the government and the public, still there remains a need for further awareness campaigns and knowledge of safe interventions to combat the spread of disease. Key words: awareness, perception, COVID19, general public.

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Communicating Risk Regarding Food Consumption: The Case of Processed Meat

Nutrients ◽

10.3390/nu11020400 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 400 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Slavica Zec ◽

Clara Minto ◽

Carlo Agostoni ◽

Carolina Fano ◽

Honoria Ocagli ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Communication ◽

Public Awareness ◽

Real Data ◽

World Health ◽

International Agency ◽

Processed Meat ◽

Awareness Campaigns ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Health Organization ◽

The Impact

The present research combines real data and parameters found in recent literature that were used to design realistic scenarios demonstrating the potential effects (benefits and costs) of the World Health Organization (WHO)’s risk communication regarding the consumption of processed meat, which was proven to be associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in an International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC)/WHO report. The impact of the risk communication of processed meat consumption was simulated using Monte Carlo microsimulation models. The results showed that a 1% reduction in the number of high-level processed meat consumers may lead to a yearly decrease in CRC cases of 406.43 (IC 95%: −243.94, 1056.81), while the more extreme scenario of a 15% reduction may lead to 2086.62 fewer cases (IC 95%: 1426.66, 2746.57). On the other hand, if demand contraction in the processed meat sector resulted in a 0.1% loss in employment, one could expect 27.23 all-cause mortalities attributable to job loss (IC 95%: 16.55, 37.80). This simulation study demonstrates that caution should be taken when implementing public awareness campaigns, particularly when the prevention message is not straightforward.

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PKM Kemasan Produksi Cairan Desinfektan yang Ramah Lingkungan dan Higienis Sesuai Standar WHO

Jurnal Nasional Pengabdian Masyarakat ◽

10.47747/pengabdiankepadamasyarakat.v1i1.140 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 59-66

Author(s):

Marjan Miharja ◽

Wiend Sakti Myharto ◽

Hendrikus Lermatin ◽

Paternus Ndruru ◽

Veni Florence Lakie ◽

...

Keyword(s):

World Health Organization ◽

Virus Disease ◽

Public Awareness ◽

Environmentally Friendly ◽

World Health ◽

New Normal ◽

Corona Virus ◽

The World ◽

Service Activity ◽

Health Organization

The spread of Covid-19 has become one of the people's concerns, starting in the city of Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 when this virus was discovered, the spread of the virus that the antidote has not yet been found is now out of control. More than 200 countries in the world have reported that their people have contracted the Covid-19 virus. Corona Virus Disease 19 has been declared a Global Public Health Emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO) on January 30, 2020. Conditions in Indonesia until Thursday, November 30, 2020, the number of people who tested positive for Covid-19 reached 538,883 cases, 450,518 people recovered and 16,945 of them died. This figure will continue to increase in line with the opinion of some epidemiologists and statistics that a pandemic outbreak will not end quickly. The purpose of this community service activity is to realize one of the contents of Presidential Instruction Number 4 of 2020, namely "Rrefocussing activities, reallocation of budgets and procurement of goods and services in order to accelerate the handling of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)", namely by making and distributing fluids. Disinfectant that is safe and environmentally friendly and recommended by the BPOM and the World Health Organization (WHO) to help people face the New Normal era. The result of this service activity is a disinfectant liquid that is safe and environmentally friendly and is able to anticipate the spread of covid-19 and increase public awareness of the Covid-19 Virus in the face of the New Normal era.

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Heavy Metal Concentration in Some Common Spices Available at Local Market as well as Branded Spicy in Chittagong Metropolitan City, Bangladesh

Current World Environment ◽

10.12944/cwe.10.1.12 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 101-108 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Prabhangshu Das ◽

Milton Halder ◽

A Mujib ◽

Faridul Islam ◽

Abu Mahmud ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Metal Concentration ◽

Food Chain ◽

Public Awareness ◽

Heavy Metal Concentration ◽

World Health ◽

Local Market ◽

Environment Pollution ◽

Metropolitan City ◽

Food Chain Contamination ◽

The Government

A study has been conducted to evaluate some metal concentration of spicy from local market of Chittagong metropolitan city, Bangladesh. Total 30 spicy samples of red chili or chili red, coriander, turmeric were collected from five different spot (Khatungonj, Chakbazar, Muradpur, Baluchora, Amanbazar) under Chittagong metropolitan city and metal as Zn, Cu, Cr, Mn, Fe concentration was measured. Metal concentration in red chili, coriander, turmeric were found as increasing order as CuKhatungonj>Muradpur>Baluchora>Amanbazar,Khatungonj>Chakbazar>Amanbazar>Muradpur>Baluchora,Khatungonj>Chakbazar>Baluchora>Amanbazar>Muradpur,Khatungonj>Chakbazar>Muradpur>Amanbazar>Baluchora,Khatungonj>Chakbazar> Baluchora >Amanbazar>Muradpur respectively. So, Spicy of Khatungonj was the highly contaminated with metal followed by chakbazar spicy and least metal concentrated spicy was in Amanbazar at Chittagong city. According to WHO (World Health Organization), Cr and Fe concentrations exceeded the permissible limit of heavy metals in spicy but other metal concentrations was within tolerable limit. The current research’s findings will convey a strong message for the government body, policy maker to establish rules and regulation in order to protect food chain contamination, environment pollution and will be helpful for public awareness. An immediate attention from the concerned authorities is required in order to protect food chain contamination and environment pollution.

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The Effect of Implementing Occupational Health and Safety Programs on Suspected COVID-19 Incidents in PT. Maruki International Employees

International Journal of Science and Healthcare Research ◽

10.52403/ijshr.20210726 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 158-166

Author(s):

Abdul Muis ◽

Muhammad Rifai ◽

Rahmawati Azis

Keyword(s):

Occupational Health ◽

Occupational Safety ◽

Virus Disease ◽

Health And Safety ◽

Occupational Health And Safety ◽

World Health ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Safety Program ◽

Corona Virus ◽

The Government

World Health Organization (WHO) has shown Corona Virus Disease 2019 as a pandemic. The spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia has now spread across locations and across countries, accompanied by an increase in the number of problems and/or the number of deaths. To overcome the spread of Covid-19, both the government and business actors have made various efforts so that the spread of the Covid-19 virus can be prevented and overcome, especially the spread of the Covid-19 virus in office areas by implementing new normal rules in the workplace through the Occupational Safety and Health program. Based on the results of observations from one of the lead managers of PT Maruki International Indonesia, who said that there had been cases against some of his employees who were suspected of being suspected of having COVID-19, we as authors consider it necessary to raise this issue to be investigated for input for the company so that it can be used to implement the implementation. Occupational Health and Safety program against suspected cases of the Covid-19 virus among PT Maruki International Indonesia employees. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the implementation of the Occupational Health and Safety Program on the incidence of suspected Covid-19 virus among employees of PT Maruki International Indonesia. This type of research is quantitative research with a design approach cross sectional study. The sample used is 150 employees from a population of 241 employees. Collecting quantitative data using a checklist and analyzed by univariate, bivariate. Thus, it can be said that the Behavioral Improving Body Immunity variable affects the variable incidence of suspected covid-19. It is hoped that with the results of this study the government and related company management can provide a policy to deal with the spread of the corona virus in the workplace. Keywords: Activities of wearing masks; hand washing habits; efforts to maintain distance and suspected cases of covid-19.

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Investigation of the Level of Public Awareness Outcome of COVID -19 Pandemic among Nigerians

10.47363/jvrr/2020(1)106 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-8

Author(s):

Azuonwu Obioma ◽

◽

Ihua Nnenna ◽

Ahiakwo Christian ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

General Public ◽

Public Awareness ◽

Secondary Data ◽

World Health ◽

Global Public Health ◽

The Public ◽

The Government ◽

Health Organization ◽

Associated Risk Factors ◽

High Level

The COVID-19 pandemic has been considered to be very phenomenal as the period is marked with some unimaginable Health crises across the globe. COVID-19 has been a global Public Health threat widely affecting the entire populace irrespective of the class and sex across the region of the world. This has attracted lots of sensitization and interventions from the appropriate approved Health agencies such as World Health Organization, Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and others to better inform the general public about the nature and mode of operandi of the pandemic virus in the absence of an accepted therapeutics and vaccines as at the time of this study. However, the media is flooded with information; not excluding some misconceptions about COVID-19 pandemic. These conflicting information are taken by the general public without reservation, hence, the study investigated the level of awareness of the public about COVID-19 virus, in relation to general knowledge, signs/symptoms, associated risk factors, transmission/spread and misconceptions. The study was delimited to Nigerians who had access to the internet. The study instrument was a self-structured questionnaire, validated by experts in this area. A Cronbach Alpha revealed a reliability index of 0.92. The online descriptive survey on the awareness level of the public, utilized Google form technique to create the questionnaire which was sent through emails and links to various social media and private platforms. Five research questions and hypothesis guided the study. A combination of primary and secondary data sources aided the study. Modified Likert scale (four points) was used and a criterion mean of 2.5 was used as the cut-off for either aware/agree (>2.5) or not aware/disagree (<2.5). Statistical Package for Social Science version 21 was used to estimate descriptive and inferential statistics at 5% alpha level for deduction. A response rate of 99.1% was obtained and a sample size of 347 was used. The study outcome suggests many interesting phenomena concerning public awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a high level of awareness of COVID-19. However, there is a need for the government and media platforms to curtail the spread of fake news and correct the misconceptions about COVID-19 among her citizens in the region.

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Antibiotic Use and Antibiotic Resistance: Public Awareness Survey in the Republic of Cyprus

Antibiotics ◽

10.3390/antibiotics9110759 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 759

Author(s):

Mikaela Michaelidou ◽

Spyridon A. Karageorgos ◽

Constantinos Tsioutis

Keyword(s):

Antibiotic Resistance ◽

Viral Infections ◽

Public Awareness ◽

Antibiotic Use ◽

World Health ◽

Resistant Bacteria ◽

Cross Sectional Survey ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Awareness Campaigns ◽

Local Evidence

We aimed to assess the knowledge and understanding of antibiotic use and resistance in the general population of Cyprus, in order to inform future antibiotic awareness campaigns with local evidence. Cross-sectional survey following the methodology of the “Antibiotic resistance: Multi-country public awareness survey” of the World Health Organization, during December 2019–January 2020. A total of 614 respondents participated: 64.3% were female and most were aged 35–44 years (33.2%) or 25–34 years (31.8%). One-third had used antibiotics >1 year ago and 91.6% reported receiving advice on appropriate use from a medical professional. Despite high awareness on correct use of antibiotics, lack of knowledge was noted for specific indications, where approximately one-third believed that viral infections respond to antibiotics and 70.7% lack understanding of how antibiotic resistance develops. Higher education graduates exhibited significantly higher knowledge rates. As high as 72.3% were informed about “antibiotic resistant bacteria” from healthcare professionals or social media. Most agreed on the usefulness of most suggested actions to address antibiotic resistance, with higher proportions acknowledging the role of prescribers. Up to 47% could not identify their role in decreasing antibiotic resistance. Our study provides local evidence to inform future efforts in a country characterized by high antibiotic consumption rates.

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