scholarly journals Dynamics of the impact of COVID-19 on the economic activity of Peru

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0244920
Author(s):  
Luis Varona ◽  
Jorge R. Gonzales

Background The COVID-19 virus impacts human health and the world economy, causing in Peru, more than 800 thousand infected and a strong recession expressed in a drop of -12% in its economic growth rate for 2020. In this context, the objective of the study is to analyze the dynamics of the short-term behavior of economic activity, as well as to explain the causal relationships in a Pandemic context based on the basic number of spread (Re) of COVID-19 per day. Methods An Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model was used. Results A negative and statistically significant impact of the COVID-19 shock was found on the level of economic activity and a long-term Cointegration relationship with an error correction model (CEM), with the expected sign and statistically significant at 1%. Conclusion The Pandemic has behaved as a systemic shock of supply and aggregate demand at the macroeconomic level, which together have an impact on the recession or level of economic activity. The authors propose changing public health policy from an indiscriminate suppression strategy to a targeted, effective and intelligent mitigation strategy that minimizes the risk of human life costs and socioeconomic costs, in a context of uncertainty about the end of the Pandemic and complemented by economic, fiscal and monetary policies that mitigate the economic recession, considering the underlying structural characteristics of the Peruvian economy.

Author(s):  
Shanti Darmastuti ◽  
Mansur Juned ◽  
Fauzan Anggoro Susanto ◽  
Rachmasari Nur Al-Husin

The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of the economic conditions in Indonesia, Philippines and Singapore after COVID-19. Through a literature study, this article looks at economic conditions and the forms of policies taken by Indonesia, Philippines, and Singapore in response to the threat of economic recession. These three countries were taken as the focus of the study considering that the most COVID-19 cases in the Southeast Asia are in these three countries. The result of this research shows that COVID-19 case has had a significant impact on every country. Many sectors are affected by this case. The policies made to prevent the spread of pandemic such as lockdowns and restrictions on the mobility of people have had a significant impact on the economic sector. The decline in economic activity has had an impact on reducing the distribution of income, decreasing domestic consumption and increasing unemployment. If these problems occur in the long term, chances are economic recession will come to these countries. In an economic recession, countries will usually take the form of fiscal and monetary policies to recover the economy or prevent a deeper recession. The conclusion of this research is the threat of an economic recession during the COVID-19 pandemic has become very complex because one country must face a health crisis that has a domino effect on other sectors. Therefore, economic recovery during the COVID-19 needs to pay attention toward the spread of the virus reduction so that the ongoing crisis, both in the economic and health sectors, does not become more severe. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk memberikan gambaran terhadap kondisi ekonomi yang dialami oleh beberapa negara seperti Indonesia, Filipina, dan Singapura akibat dari COVID-19. Melalui metode studi literatur, artikel ini melihat kondisi ekonomi serta bentuk kebijakan yang diambil oleh Indonesia, Filipina, dan Singapura dalam menyikapi ancaman resesi ekonomi. Tiga negara ini diambil sebagi fokus studi mengingat kasus COVID-19 terbanyak di kawasan Asia Tenggara terdapat di tiga negara ini. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kasus COVID-19 memberikan dampak yang cukup signifikan bagi setiap negara. Banyak sektor yang terdampak dari adanya kasus ini. Kebijakan untuk memotong rantai perluasan dari Pandemi ini melalui karantina wilayah maupun pembatasan mobilitas orang memberikan dampak yang cukup besar di sektor ekonomi. Penurunan aktivitas ekonomi telah memberikan dampak bagi penurunan distribusi pendapatan, penurunan konsumsi domestik sampai dengan peningkatan pengangguran. Masalah-masalah ini apabila terjadi dalam jangka panjang dikhawatirkan akan menimbulkan ancaman resesi ekonomi bagi satu negara. Pada resesi ekonomi, negara biasanya akan mengambil bentuk kebijakan fiskal maupun moneter untuk melakukan pemulihan ekonomi ataupun mencegah terjadinya resesi yang lebih dalam. Simpulan dari penelitian ini adalah bahwa ancaman resesi ekonomi pada masa COVID-19 menjadi sangat kompleks dikarenakan satu negara dihadapkan pada masalah krisis kesehatan yang memberikan efek domino bagi sektor lainnya.Oleh karena itu, pemulihan ekonomi pada masa COVID-19 perlu memperhatikan upaya pengurangan perluasan virus sehingga krisis berkelanjutan baik dalam bidang ekonomi maupun kesehatan tidak terjadi lebih luas.   Kata Kunci :COVID-19, Resesi, Ekonomi, Kebijakan, Indonesia, Filipina, Singapura  


Author(s):  
Ercan Özen ◽  
Letife Özdemir

This study aims to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Turkey's tourism sector. In the study, for the period 12 March 2020 - 31 August 2020 the daily data of the BIST tourism stock index and Covid-19 case and death counts in Turkey were used. The cointegration relationship between the Covid-19 pandemic and the BIST tourism index was investigated with the ARDL bound test. In addition, the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the BIST tourism index was tested with the FMOLS regression method. As a result of the ARDL bound test, it was determined that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the Covid-19 case and death numbers and the BIST tourism index. According to the FMOLS regression model results, it is seen that the deaths of Covid 19 significantly affect the tourism index. A 1% increase in the number of deaths causes the BIST tourism index to decrease by 0.08%. The coefficient of the number of Covid-19 cases is not significant, showing that the number of cases does not have a sufficient effect on the tourism index.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bence Kiss-Dobronyi ◽  
Dora Fazekas ◽  
Hector Pollitt

AbstractThe article discusses how and why Green Recovery could be beneficial for the Visegrad countries based on a modelling exercise using the E3ME macroeconometric model. Green Recovery is defined as including policies in recovery plans that not only target economic recovery, but also contribute to environmental targets. The paper proposes that a Green Recovery could be valuable and suitable for the region contributing to both restoring employment and boosting economic activity as well as reaching climate goals. This is tested through a macroeconomic simulation, using the E3ME model. E3ME is built on Post-Keynesian economic theory and on econometric estimations of macroeconomic relationships. The results of the analysis focus on three dimensions: (1) social – employment, (2) environmental – level of CO2 emissions and (3) economic activity – gross domestic product (GDP). Outcomes indicate that a green recovery can shorten the time needed for employment and economic recovery as well as contributes to CO2 emission reductions. In Hungary, Czechia and Poland, the impact persists into the long-term; however, the paper also concludes that countries with high reliance on coal (e.g. Poland) could return to coal in the long term if no further policies are introduced.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreea Simona Saseanu ◽  
Rodica-Manuela Gogonea ◽  
Simona Ioana Ghita ◽  
Radu Şerban Zaharia

Currently, the problem of waste reduction is a permanent concern for all countries of the world, given the need to ensure the sustainability development. In this context, the research aims to highlight the impact of education and demographic factors by residence areas on the long-term behavior of the amount of waste generated in 29 European countries during 2013–2017. The study is based on statistical and econometric modeling aimed at identifying, testing and analyzing the existence of long-term correlation between the amount of waste per capita recorded in each country and four factors of influence considered significant for waste reduction: Pupils and students by education level and Classroom teachers and academic staff by education level, representing exogenous variables which quantify the educational outcomes, as well as The population by degree of urbanization (cities, rural areas), as demographic factors. As a result of an analysis based on correlation and regression method, a cointegration relationship between the analyzed variables was identified. Considering the amount of waste as an important component of the environmental pressure, the obtained results show the significant long-term effect that education and the demographic factor can have on its long-lasting behavior, as well as the ways through which these factors can act to strengthen sustainability.


Tripodos ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (47) ◽  
pp. 87-102
Author(s):  
Enrique Canovaca de la Fuente

The aim of this article is to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on the income models of the Spanish general inter­est press through an in-depth analysis of the case of ‘El Mundo’. This article shows data about the decline in adver­tising, both in printed and digital for­mats, during the first quarter of 2020 and, more specifically, during March. It also reveals that the media platforms with a previously implemented sub­scription system have gained a signif­icant number of new registrations. Not only is ‘El Mundo’ an example of this trend, but also other newspapers such as ‘Eldiario.es’, ‘Ara’, ‘La Razón’ or ‘La Voz de Galicia’. The reader becomes an alternative to lessen advertising losses at a time of global transformation of the industry towards reader-revenue models. Long-term consequences of a probable economic recession once the pandemic effects are reduced are also considered in the analysis. The article also outlines some key points to ensure the viability of newspaper publishers, such as investing in journalists with relevant sources or profiles that know how to manage new digital businesses. Keywords: COVID-19, press, business, subscriptions and advertising.


2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (3) ◽  
pp. 721-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Galí

I examine the impact of alternative monetary policy rules on a rational asset price bubble, through the lens of an overlapping generations model with nominal rigidities. A systematic increase in interest rates in response to a growing bubble is shown to enhance the fluctuations in the latter, through its positive effect on bubble growth. The optimal monetary policy seeks to strike a balance between stabilization of the bubble and stabilization of aggregate demand. The paper's main findings call into question the theoretical foundations of the case for “leaning against the wind” monetary policies. (JEL E13, E32, E44, E52, G12)


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verena Habrich ◽  
Vito Bobek ◽  
Tatjana Horvat

Emerging markets are amongst some of the fastest-growing economies on the globe. However, it is necessary to enhance human capital to enable the long-term development of a nation. The theory states that the increase in workforce participation favorably impacts GDP per capita. Additionally, developing markets can grow even further if they increase women’s rates in the labor market. The authors’ desire is to determine the main obstacles for women in the job market and identify the impact of female participation on national development. The authors applied the following methods of work: description and compilation of different literature and deduction method to show which relevant factors are recommended to make higher women’s economic activity to impacts the economy in a broader sense. The results show that Emerging markets must overcome gender inequalities, properly enforce female-related regulations, and invest in human development. The results also point out the relevance of a country’s level of development, culture, education, female-related laws, and their influence on women’s decision or ability to work. The discussion demonstrates that the rate of women in the workforce is increasing, but it is still severely lower than the men’s rate. The main issues are cultural stereotypes, limited access to the job market, and difficulties with combining work and childcare. When it comes to infrastructure and educational possibilities, remote areas are still underdeveloped. Furthermore, gender bias is still deeply rooted in rural society. The elimination of these stereotypes and the improvement (and enforcement) of women-related policies will contribute to higher female workforce participation in the future.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oguzhan Ozcelebi

Purpose Might the impact of the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and the long-term bond yields on oil prices be asymmetric? This paper aims to consider the effects of the GEPU and the US long-term government bond yields on oil prices using quantile-based analysis and nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) model. The author hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the GEPU and the long-term bond yields of the USA have different effects on oil prices. Design/methodology/approach To address this question, the author uses quantile cointegration model and the impulse response functions (IRFs) of the censored variable approach of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011). Findings The quantile cointegration test showed the existence of non-linear cointegration relationship, whereas Granger-causality analysis revealed that positive/negative variations in GEPU will have opposite effects on oil prices. This result was supported by the quantile regression model’s coefficients and nonlinear VAR model’s IRFs; more specifically, it was stressed that increasing/decreasing GEPU will deaccelerate/accelerate global economic activity and thus lead to a fall/rise in oil prices. On the other hand, the empirical models indicated that the impact of US 10-year government bond yields on oil prices is asymmetrical, while it was found that deterioration in the borrowing conditions in the USA may have an impact on oil prices by slowing down the global economic activity. Originality/value As a robustness check of the quantile-based analysis results, the slope-based Mork test is used.


2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 01036
Author(s):  
Miloš Nový ◽  
Čestmír Jarý

Research background: The world economy is currently affected by the devastating effects of the global COVID 19 pandemic, reaching the Great Depression of the 1930s. The economic policies of the affected countries are currently focused on short-term measures on the aggregate demand side. To this end, the growth of the public finance deficit is being prepared in the area of fiscal policy, which will ultimately deepen the indebtedness of national economies. If this economic policy is to be sustainable in the long term, measures on the aggregate demand side must be accompanied by measures on the aggregate supply side. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to determine how the current globalization processes affecting the supply and demand sides of selected national economies will be affected in the short and long term as a result of the global COVID 19 pandemic. Methods: A description of the AS - AD model will be performed, covering both short and long periods, and then a description of the impact of globalization processes on aggregate supply and aggregate demand. This will be followed by an analysis of the expected economic and social impacts of COVID 19 on individual globalization processes affecting the supply and demand sides of selected national economies and economic units. Findings & Value added: The article will help to find a systemic approach to the recovery of national economies affected by the effects of the global pandemic COVID 19 through the prism of the AS - AD model.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Marlina Dea Nur Cahyanti ◽  
Rika Putri Handriyanti ◽  
Kris Yunianto ◽  
Anita Trisiana

The analysts the impact of environmental the is a study on the impact of positive or negative of a project plans , used by the government to decide whether activities and projects were suitable environment .The purpose of the report is to ensure an activity and projects can run sustainable without damaging environment . Because with the amdal expected an activity and projects can use or manage natural resources effectively and efficient by means of maximize the impact of positive and minimize the impact of out the negatives . A huge amount of damage and environmental benefits when it is getting really bad for example , the damage to coral reefs , result of water pollution , air pollution as well as , are prone to air pollution caused by garbage during this complex. As some say it is also a form of human behaviour that is not satisfied and did not keep environment optimally. Progress is being made in the technology and discovery the odor of at the time of this covenant averse from its very for the survival of human life .All activities more is easy to do and is practically , but the utilization of the invention that unlocked drawn too much to the survey specifically in plastic that yet they created to accommodate an object the aga is easy to carry every where , and it will make hill corruption caused by monetary policies clean up the trash that the part of a car , and electronic . Since the 1950s plastic becomes an important part of in human life .Plastic used as raw materials for packaging , textile , bag, excelent of plastic that praktis , wanna , easy to find and also muah is facto sector-wide policy man surroundings chemicals that give rise to a complex problem .about emerge when disadai that plastic is not tedegadasi even though i was tependam inside the ground in a period of a very long time .From it then sevagai pollution response by the presence of a student to be garbage , students should be an example and reformer for the environment around .


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